Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga's August victory is at risk if he ignores the push to name Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka as his running mate.
Fears are growing that he former prime minister's winning formula would be at stake if he goes for a different deputy, especially one from President Uhuru Kenyatta's Mt Kenya region.
It would be disastrous if Kalonzo bolts from Azimio because of frustrations and halts the expected aggressive Azimio campaigns in Ukambani.
If Kalonzo grudgingly agrees to support Raila without aggressively consolidating his bases for Azimio, that would trigger voter apathy.
"Kalonzo must not just accept to back Raila but also campaign for him across his turf to assuage any fears," Tongaren MP Eseli Simiyu said.
The presidential candidates have until May 16 to submit the names of their running mates to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission for registration.
However, Raila has empaneled a team of seven politicians and religious leaders to vet candidates who want to deputise him and submit a name to him by May 10.
The next five days will be intriguing as the panel examines prospective running mates while Aziomo bigwigs lobby behind the scenes.
Raila's team will consider charisma, political experience, ability to mobilise and add votes to his basket, and regional as well as ethnic balance in arriving at the ideal candidate.
Within Kalonzo's camp, his team is concerned and jittery that there is an elaborate scheme to elbow him out and pick a running mate from Mt Kenya.
Those with concerns argue that with Mt Kenya having forgone the position of President in this year's polls, the least they can accept, and insist on, would be second in command.
For this reason, Ruto, the Kenya Kwanza Alliance presidential candidate, is said to be considering a number of important figures from Mt Kenya — his perceived stronghold — as his running mate.
Or he might choose someone different, knowing he has a lot of support in Mt Kenya.
Other politicians and analysts have argued Raila should retain the ticket with Kalonzo as DP that nearly vanquished President Kenyatta's reelection bid in 2017.
Political analyst Danstan Omari said a Raila-Kalonzo ticket would give Ruto a run for his money as it would consolidate Ukambani region in Azimio.
“Kalonzo has a solid, loyal constituency. He brought the Kamba vote to Cord and Nasa in 2013 and 2017, respectively. You can say he has a solid constituency that will go wherever he will go,” the analyst said.
Omari said, it would be suicidal for Raila to bank on Mt Kenya support to beat Ruto as the region has already strongly gravitated to the Deputy President's camp.
The Mt Kenya vote, he said, will not be pegged on which position they will be allocated but a "bitter protest vote against President Kenyatta and Raila".
“If Raila goes for a Mt Kenya running mate, it will not add more than 100,000 votes on top of what he can get himself as Raila Odinga without a Kikuyu running mate,” Omari said.
All the 10 counties — Nakuru (geographically in the Rift Valley), Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Laikipia (geographically in the Rift Valley), Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi — that make up the region account for nearly a third of the country’s total votes.
Kalonzo's Ukambani region is considered as one of the country's most solid vote blocs that have the capacity to tilt the presidential duel.
Makueni MP Daniel Maanzo warned that if Raila doesn’t go with Kalonzo, he will lose the election and hand Ruto an early victory.
“He will not become President, it is very clear. He will make Ruto win with a very big margin. Already Ruto is ahead in Central Kenya and they (Azimio) seem not to be making any headway,” Maanzo said.
The MP argued that should Raila settle on Kalonzo, then they can bank on President Kenyatta to deliver a significant chunk of the Mt Kenya votes to Azimio.
“Only President Uhuru Kenyatta can bring any vote to Raila from Central Kenya — not Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth, Sabina Chege or Peter Munya. The Kamba vote is two million and is under Kalonzo's lock and key,” the MP said
Former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, Murang’a Woman Representative Sabina Chege and Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya are among the politicians being touted to deputise Raila from Mt Kenya.
“It is either he (Raila) needs our vote or not. Raila will not get Kamba votes without having Kalonzo as running mate,” Maanzo said.
The Akamba votes is estimated at more than two million, including those in the local diaspora, giving Kalonzo a massive war chest.
During the 2013 and the 2017 general elections, Ukambani voted almost to a man for Raila because Kalonzo was then deputising him in Cord and later in Nasa, respectively.
Raila locked Ukambani and Western, having had the support of Kalonzo in both elections, and the backing of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi in 2017.
Analysts say Raila must consolidate Ukambani, Western Kenya and chip away at Ruto's fortunes in Mt Kenya to obliterate the DP's State House chances.
“Surely, without the support of Ukambani, it would be a tall order for Raila to actualise his presidency,” Wiper vice chairman Victor Ogeto warned.
Ogeto insisted a Raila presidency would be a mirage if ODM loses some of his traditional strongholds, such as Ukambani.
“It would be statistically impossible for Raila to beat Ruto without Kalonzo Musyoka on his side,” he said.
Kalonzo is the only front runner from outside the President's Mt Kenya backyard, giving the ODM boss a big headache.
Some political players say while Raila may decide to pick a running mate from Mt Kenya — hoping to get a slice of the nearly six million votes — Kalonzo's move would make or break his State House bid.
Should Kalonzo rebel against Raila's possible choice of another candidate from Mt Kenya, then the Wiper boss would sway his Ukambani votes against Raila and deny Azimio victory.
Kitui Central MP Makali Mulu also insisted that without Kalonzo as running mate, it would be a political nightmare for Ukambani to back the Azimio camp.
“It is not a secret. People have told us openly that if he is not the deputy, they have no obligation to vote for Raila. So if they they cannot vote for Raila. the only alternative is to vote for Ruto,” he said.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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