For a long time, the country has been knowing about the presidential candidature of Deputy President William Ruto.
He has had the first-mover advantage but now he faces a major disadvantage because his messaging has reached saturation point.
Ruto is aggressively campaigning yet he is neither convincing anyone nor moving forward.
The question then becomes: When Raila starts the campaigns, if at all he will ever start, will the scales remain the same in favour of Ruto?
Does Raila have the urgency, the resources and the energy to compete with Ruto?
If Ruto is currently doing 39 per cent and yet Raila has not started campaigning, what will Ruto have when Raila hits the road?
At least I have driven across Nairobi and I have seen Ruto's posters. I have not seen any of Raila's posters yet the figures are changing in his favour.
It is clear that the figures are changing in favour of Raila yet the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya has not hit the road.
It is good for Ruto but he should look into the rear-view mirror. The figures are closer than they appear.
A poll that was done last year showed that the more the money a candidate spends, the more he or she is likely to win.
In terms of expenditure, no one can beat Ruto at the moment.
I don't think there is a big chunk of voters who are undecided. The numbers you are seeing as undecided could be people who think their decision is unpopular.
These are probably Kalenjins who will not vote for Ruto and the Luos who will not vote for Raila.
This is a population that thinks whatever they want to do is unpopular in their regions.
Some of the undecided voters would most likely be the Luhyas who hope Ruto will name Musalia his running mate.
This is a population that thinks the campaigns have not yet started.
When campaigns officially start later this month, those numbers will change.
The numbers will also change the moment the presidential candidates name their running mates.
In 2013, when Ruto was made Uhuru's running mate, the numbers quickly changed.
Political analyst spoke to the Star
(Edited by V. Graham)
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