A new forecast shows Kenya may not receive as much rainfall as was expected this month.
The weather department said no part of the country will receive above-average or enhanced rainfall this month.
Stella Aura, the Meteorological director, said only areas around Lake Victoria, Rift Valley highlands, Mt Kenya region, and parts of the Northeast and southeastern lowlands are likely to experience near average rainfall.
“The rest of the country is likely to experience below-average rainfall, especially during the first half of the month,"she said.
"The rainfall distribution in these areas is likely to be poor both in time and space.”
The month-long forecast, issued on Friday, is worrying because April is the peak month for the March-May long rains season.
When she issued a seasonal forecast for March-May last month, Aura had predicted many places would receive enhanced rains. But she had also warned that weather is prone to changes.
On Friday, Aura said with concern that rains began in March later than expected and were poorly distributed.
She said by March 29, Kisumu, Moyale, Nanyuki and Voi were the only stations that had recorded near average rainfall at 117.8 per cent, 115.2 per cent, 93.5 per cent, and 88.6 per cent, respectively.
“All the other stations recorded less than 75 per cent of the March long-term means (Depressed rainfall),” she said.
The rains have not even started in the Northwestern and North Coast regions.
Aura said rainfall in the first two weeks of this month in most places will be poor, interspersed with dry spells.
However, there will be heavy storms on some days , especially over the south-eastern lowlands, Central Kenya, the Northwest, Lake Victoria Basin, and the highlands west of the Rift Valley.
“The expected rainfall during the peak month of April may result in occasional flooding in flood-prone areas, poorly drained urban centres as well as along rivers,” she said.
March-May is the main food crop season in Kenya.
Specifically, the Lake Victoria basin and Rift Valley highlands should expect below-average rainfall during the first half of the month and near long-term average rainfall during the second half of the month.
Northwest counties (Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu) should also expect below-average rainfall during the first half of the month.
“Near long-term average rainfall is expected during the second half of the month,” Aura said.
Mt Kenya area including Nairobi, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, and Murang'a will have occasional dry breaks during the first half of the month.
The rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the region.
Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo will also receive below the long-term average this month.
Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, and Taita Taveta will have below-average rainfall in the next two weeks.
But in total, the expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average.
The rains expected in the Coastal Strip (Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale are also likely to be below the long-term average.
(Edited by Francis Wadegu)
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