Most people have had Covid-19 — MOH

Most people in urban areas have had Covid-19 and therefore have developed immunity against severe disease, a survey by the Ministry of Health suggests.

Most Kenyans are not vaccinated and researchers who tested blood samples are confident the antibodies found are from natural infection.

The tests show 85 per cent of people in Nairobi had Covid-19 antibodies in October 2021. The proportion could be much higher today.

“This suggests that 85 per cent of the population using a public hospital in Nairobi have been previously infected with SARS-COV-2. At least in the short-term, asymptomatic infection is protective,” the report said.

The authors include acting director general for Health Patrick Amoth and Health CASs Mercy Mwangangi and Rashid Aman.

Kemri-Wellcome Trust research programme officers conducted the tests in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi in 2020 and 2021 at the request of the ministry.

The results will add impetus to calls for Kenya to drop mask mandates and other restrictions.

“There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi counties,” the authors say in their final findings, seen by the Star.

The data show that in October 2021, 74 per cent of people in Busia and 72 per cent in Kilifi had Covid-19 antibodies.

“Measuring the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is an alternative way to estimate the cumulative incidence of infection,” the researchers said.

The paper, 'Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in three Kenyan referral hospitals', repeated cross-sectional surveys 2020-21. It is available on preprint server Medrxiv awaiting peer review and publication.

The authors do not suggest Kenya has reached herd immunity or population-level immunity because neither vaccines nor natural infections offer lifelong immunity or entirely stop transmission.

The antibody tests were conducted on blood samples taken from women attending antenatal services.

The authors said their results are representative of populations in those regions.

However, the same method is often used to track the national progress of HIV infections in Kenya.

Previously, Kemri researchers tested for antibodies in blood donated for transfusion, but this was not seen as representative.

“Residual blood samples from mothers visiting antenatal care for the first time may therefore represent a relatively unbiased sample of young women, and an alternative sentinel surveillance population to blood donors,” the researchers said.

The results show infections have been rising rapidly since 2020.

For instance in Nairobi in August 2020, just after the peak of the first wave of Covid-19 infections, 75 per cent of people tested had antibodies.

In October last year, seroprevalence was 85 per cent, and 76 per cent of the women were unvaccinated.

In Busia, in May 2021, 51 per cent of women tested had antibodies, increasing to 74 per cent in October. Only two per cent had been vaccinated with at least one dose.

In Kilifi, those with antibodies increased from one per cent in September 2020 to 72 per cent in October last year.

Dr Githinji Gitahi, head of Amref Health Africa, said Kenya needs to reduce mask mandates and focus more on vaccines.

“All signs indicate we may be moving from the pandemic to the endemic phase of Covid-19 and the tools used for each phase, and indeed even between phases, are different,” he said in an earlier statement.

(Edited by V. Graham)

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