Ever since the surprising political truce between President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga on March 9, 2018 political tensions in the country were contained.
Emerging from a bitterly contested presidential election the previous year, the two politicians crafted a strong camaraderie that resulted in a political alliance, Azimio La Umoja Movement. Shortly thereafter President Kenyatta came forth audaciously and endorsed the former Prime Minister as his preferred successor.
This has definitely excited many, especially in Raila’s camp given Kenyatta’s endorsement is interpreted as a possible transfer of the vote rich Central Kenya bloc to his (Raila’s) clout and possibly a sure way of path to victory on August 9.
This election is different as it is a transitional election where a change of guard is obviously expected and anticipated, legally and logically given President Kenyatta is serving his last term. Given he is the incumbent, it is reasonable that he would want to be succeeded by an individual who will further and protect his legacy. Following his speech in the Sagana meeting, it is now clear he prefers Raila to Deputy President William Ruto.
According to Prof Allan Licthman, who has correctly predicted the American elections between 1984-20, he posits that voters select the president mainly on how they feel about the performance of the incumbent.
In transitional elections, voters select their next president depending on whether the incumbent has endorsed them. If dissatisfied with the incumbent, then the voters will elect the rival to the incumbent’s choice of successor.
Ever since Uhuru’s reelection in 2017, Kenya has grown to be the third poorest lower middle income country according to World Bank, and more than 40 per cent of Kenyans live in abject poverty. The pandemic has contributed to the abysmal government performance by condemning two million more Kenyans into dirt poverty further increasing the poverty rate by four per cent.
Whilst the pandemic has contributed to the country’s poverty increment, the government’s maladministration is also to blame and the buck stops with Uhuru as the President.
Little was done to cushion Kenyans from the economic effects of the pandemic. Whilst countries in the global north with far superior economies were giving stimulus packages, streamlining government services and adopting frugal means to net their citizens from poverty, President Kenyatta was fixated on a plebiscite during a pandemic. A plebiscite that would cost the country not less than Sh20 billion and expand the government, further widening the public wage bill to an already debt stricken nation with millions of unemployed citizens.
Wit the debt likely to hit Sh12 trillion according to economic estimates, millions of Kenyans are averse to the malfeasance associated with the Kenyatta administration and his borrowing spree that’s left Kenya in a debt trap.
Therefore, an Uhuru endorsement would be interpreted as a pathway to continue with his legacy, which has been ridden with the poor handling of the pandemic, the worst unemployment crisis in our country’s history and a worsening debt that’s obviously crippling our nation.
His endorsement is counterproductive to Raila’s presidential candidacy. The ODM leader has to convince millions of Kenyans that he is not a “Uhuru’s project” and that he will not continue his economic policies should he be elected president.
It will be a herculean task to do so given he is the only presidential candidate with Uhuru’s blessings to succeed him.
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