Kenya's political maturity and tolerance will be sorely tested as bigwigs expand their campaigns beyond their strongholds into perceived 'enemy territory'.
Deputy President William Ruto on Tuesday begins a three-day tour of ODM leader Raila Odinga’s Nyanza backyard. The DP and his boss President Uhuru Kenyatta have largely given the region a wide berth in previous polls.
Ruto has been to Migori and was hosted at the home of Governor Okoth Obado, with Raila's blessing.
Raila is also planning an extensive visit to South Rift weeks after he staged a mega rally in Eldoret, a town seen as Ruto’s political capital.
The fact these politicians can now move to areas once regarded as hostile and hold campaigns peacefully is a sign of good things.
In recent weeks, Ruto has camped in Ukambani while Raila has pitched tent in Mt Kenya in a new vote-hunting strategy.
The police are talking tough about political thuggery and Interior CS Fred Matiang’i has warned the government has taken a zero-tolerance stand.
Small pockets of violence have erupted in some regions but the National Cohesion and Integration Commission says Kenyans have so far exhibited “excellent” political maturity in campaigns.
“The fact that these politicians can now move to areas that were regarded as hostile and hold their campaigns peacefully is a sign of good things", NCIC commissioner Danvas Makori told the Star.
"If you see Raila Odinga hold rallies in Central Kenya and Rift Valley and Deputy President Ruto goes to his [Raila's] backyard and is not being received by stones but crowds, that is a sign of democracy."
On October 23, Ruto’s motorcade was stoned in Busia. On October 4, Raila and Ruto’s supporters in Kisii clashed, leaving one man fighting for his life.
On October 19, hired youths carrying pro-Ruto placards tried to heckle Raila at a tense rally in Runyenjes, Embu county.
From Tuesday evening, Ruto is expected to criss cross Kisumu, Migori and Homa Bay counties.
On the other hand, Raila is expected in Murang’a to be hosted in Gatanga by former MP Peter Kenneth.
Raila’s visit to Murang’a comes two days after he traversed Nyandarua county.
The former Prime Minister now has the backing of at least eight governors from the larger Mt Kenya region.
Political observers have linked the changing political times to the fact that the Kikuyu community, one of the largest voting blocs in the country, will not have a serious presidential contender.
Political analyst Peter Mugwe predicts the country is likely to “witness relatively peaceful and issue-based politics because there is not much ethnic balkanisation and divisions”.
“At a time like this in the previous elections, the country would have witnessed presidential candidates campaigning along ethnic lines, but that has somehow taken a backseat.
"While Kenyans will still vote along ethnic lines, it will not be so pronounced to the extent of coalition-making patterns," he told the Star.
Mugwe said Kenya is maturing politically and the young generation will embrace a leader based on his or her development agenda rather than historical ethnic differences.
“We are dealing with a new generation that is slowly but steadily being weaned from ethnic politics. They will not on their own arm themselves to disrupts political events unless they are paid. That is the reality that our leaders must get used to,” he said.
Politicians from Mt Kenya have since 2007 profiled the ODM boss as a bogeyman who must be stopped from being president at all costs.
However, this has changed after the Uhuru and Raila handshake on March 9, 2018.
Ruto was equally an unwelcome guest in Mt Kenya until 2013 when he teamed up with Uhuru.
While Kenyans will still vote along ethnic lines, it will not be so pronounced to the extent of coalition-making patterns.
This was due to the the long-standing suspicion between the Kikuyu and Kalenjins, which exploded in 2007-08 post-election violence.
Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma said while the freedom to campaign in every part of the country is a step in the right direction, it is still too early to rule out the ethnic card in 2022.
Speaking to the Star on Monday, Kaluma said the next elections would still follow the traditional voting patterns with Mt Kenya being the battleground for Ruto and Raila.
“What is happening does not diminish our tribal inclinations. It will still manifest itself during the day of voting. Kalenjins will still vote for Ruto and so will the Luos for Raila.
"Ruto is not guaranteed to get the votes he they got with Uhuru and with that in mind, he is a fool not to venture into other regions,” he said.
He said, “The fact that Ruto or Raila can visit any part of the country, be received warmly and campaign freely tells you that we are making the right steps in our maturing democracy.
"Presidential candidates should move freely selling their agenda so Kenyans can make informed choices when they cast their votes.”
Although the DP says he enjoys substantial support in Uhuru's backyard, he has for the last four years ventured into Raila’s traditional bases of Coast, Western and South Nyanza, especially the Kisii region as part of his wider scheme to bag more votes.
With the DP's falling out with President Uhuru having reached a point of no return, Ruto has launched spirited campaigns to new territories such as Ukambani and Nyanza.
Raila was last month in Ruto’s hometown of Uasin Gishu where he met more than 400 delegates from North Rift counties before he moved to Eldoret town where a massive crowd gave him a warm reception.
Murang’a Woman Representative Sabina Chege said the days when the country would be zoned and branded a no-go zone for certain leaders or parties “are beyond us”.
In an interview with the Star, Sabina who has been part of the Mt Kenya leaders campaigning for Raila, said Kenyans are now ready to listen to all the presidential candidates.
“People have come to appreciate that no leader has a monopoly over people. Previously the country had been zoned. Mt Kenya people are now open-minded with the fact that as a community we do not have a presidential candidate,” she said.
Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi, a close ally of the DP, observed that politicians should not feel intimidated to the extent of not campaigning in certain parts of the country.
“When Raila was coming to Eldoret, we told our people to turn up in large numbers to receive and listen to Baba (Raila). We have been preaching unity in diversity and that is the direction we should take as a country.
"We want to see Ruto campaigning in Kibera or Kondela in Kisumu and Raila also campaigning in Rift Valley. Kenyans will decide,” he said.
“The DP started in Kibra when he went against the grain and ensured that Jubilee Party had a candidate. The state sponsored violence but we still campaigned there. That is what we should see going forward,” Sudi said.
Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua said the Deputy President has been rooting for issue-based politics ahead of 2022.
The staunch supporter of Ruto said the state should allow the will of the people to determine the next President.
“We in the hustler movement have always instead that the 2022 elections and going forward will be about the development agenda and the record one has had. We have chosen the DP because he has stood with the people of Mt Kenya and he has a proven track record in as far as development is concerned,” he said.
He went on, “May the rest of candidates also show us their records and what they want to do for Kenyans. It is unfortunate that when the country is trying to make progress, the state wants to take us back by forcing candidates on Kenyans.”
(Edited by V. Graham)
