They might be a force. They stand to deny the frontrunners the chance for a 50 per cent plus one. They might want to force a rerun so they negotiate at that stage
One Kenya Alliance’s entry into the 2022 contest could reshape the presidential race and pose a political nightmare for ODM leader Raila Odinga.
There are fears the "third force" could significantly chip away Raila’s traditional support bases of Ukambani and Western Kenya and hand Deputy President William Ruto an easy run.
But the development could also deny Raila or Deputy President William Ruto the requisite 50 per cent plus one vote and force the country into a runoff.
The second-round vote would be unpredictable and would rely on post-election coalition building.
But still, there are other political observers who have dismissed Oka as paper tigers who will not tilt the presidential contest.
The Oka chiefs, particularly ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi, have bitterly protested in public against President Uhuru Kenyatta’s push to have them back Raila.
Other principals are Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Moses Wetang'ula(Ford Kenya) and Gideon Moi of Kanu.
Analysts say the public feuding will make any reconciliation difficult with nine months to the polls.
A grand reunion between the ODM boss and Oka was seen as the surest way of vanquishing Deputy President William Ruto’s State House bid.
Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni, who was Musalia’s running mate in the 2013 general election, warned that the Oka team was unnecessarily pushing the country to the brink of disaster.
According to Kioni, with Oka on the ballot, the contest between Raila and Ruto will be too close to call.
“Oka should not drive us to a situation where we have 49-51 per cent. That will be a recipe for trouble. But why subject the country to a second run?” Kioni said.
He went on, “A close call, which happens when you split the people so much, is expensive. I will urge Oka to avert a situation where we will be having a close call. A close call will subject us to unnecessary fights.”
Kioni, who chairs the National Assembly's Committee on Constitutional Oversight, urged the Oka bosses to avoid taking the county onto "a very expensive runoff.”
Politicians argue that for Raila to decisively win the 2022 presidential contest in round one, his 2013 and 2017 support bases must be intact and he must penetrate Mt Kenya.
Their campaigns don’t complicate anything as the people will be the ones to decide. But the way things are, we will win the race first round
A Kikuyu-Kalenjin political juggernaut of President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy Ruto vanquished Raila both in 2013 and 2017.
Although Raila had then locked Western, Ukambani, Nyanza and Coast regions, he could not cancel the UhuruRuto votes.
In the 2013 votes, Uhuru garnered 6,173,433 votes against Raila's 5,340,546 votes. The President avoided a runoff by just 8,000 votes.
Kalonzo was Raila's running mate in both 2013 and 2017 and delivered the Ukambani vote bloc to Raila almost to a man.
The three Ukambani counties of Kitui, Makueni and Machakos have about 1.5 million registered voters.
However, some of Raila's allies believe the Kalonzo and Musalia will not block Raila from puling a first-round victory.
Kieni MP Kanini Kega told the Star that Raila will turn tables on Ruto in Mt Kenya that will propel him to State House.
“They should just back off and back Raila because the people of Mt Kenya have decided to support him next year, the ground has shifted,” he said.
A confident Kega said, "This thing we shall finish it in the first round."
Raila beat Musalia hands down in 2013 in Western Kenya. However, the 483,981 votes that the ANC chief garnered gave Uhuru an easy run.
Raila's Western Kenya lieutenants say the ODM boss remains the region's political chieftain.
But Lugari MP Ayub Savula, a key Musalia ally, maintained that Oka will not be intimidated out of the presidential race.
“We shall abandon Oka if they [bosses] make a mistake of supporting Raila. Their political credibility would be at stake if they abandon their cause for Raila,” Savula said.
He went on, “We have told our ANC party leader that we must go all the way to the ballot in Oka, anything short of that will not be accepted.”
A recent poll projection by Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria showed that Raila would beat Ruto hands down in a two-horse race.
Kuria, once an insider in Ruto's camp, said without Musalia and Kalonzo on the ballot, Raila would win the presidential race by 52.28 per cent.
However, should Mudavadi and Kalonzo be on the ballot, Kuria said there would be a runoff with Ruto leading with 40.97 per cent while Raila would have 36.84 per cent.
Gatanga MP Joseph Nduati said the Oka chiefs would force the country into a runoff as no one would garner the requisite 50 per cent plus one.
“They might be a force. They stand to deny the frontrunners the chance for a 50 per cent plus one. They might want to force a rerun so they negotiate at that stage,” he said.
He went on: “Currently, they may not be able to negotiate. They are already late and people have taken their space. They will create relevance after the elections.”
The MP said the President still has a chance to steer the cause and reunite Raila with Oka chiefs.
"He is a friend of all of them. He can negotiate with them further. They want relevance hence their resolve to run to the end," he added.
But Garissa Town MP Aden Duale, a key Ruto ally, said the Oka team cannot force the country into a rerun as they don’t have numbers.
"We cannot have four people going round to campaign. We cannot have four people on a ballot paper. How can you vote for four people for one position?
"They must first decide they want to go to the ballot. They must also decide who their candidate is. They must tell us their agenda and the name of their coalition.
“They have no numbers. They cannot stage a rerun. Gideon Moi’s numbers belong to William Ruto. Kalonzo’s numbers will be divided into pieces between Raila Odinga and the three governors and himself.
"Western will be divided between William, Raila, Musalia, Oparanya, Wetang'ula. The only two people who have block votes are Ruto and Raila," he said.
Soy MP Caleb Kositany, a key Ruto ally, said Oka has a right to go all the way to the ballot without any intimidation to back Raila.
“The decision will ultimately be made by voters. It is good that Oka has realised that the State House meetings are not for them but to support a particular candidate,” he said.
He went on, “Their campaigns don’t complicate anything as the people will be the ones to decide. But the way things are, we will win the race first round.”
The MP dismissed Kalonzo’s Ukambani influence, saying the recent by-elections in which a Wiper candidate emerged position three was testimony that the ground has shifted.
When Musalia ran for president in 2013 he polled 483,981 and came a distant third.
Kalonzo garnered 879,903 votes while Raila scored 4,352,993 votes in 2007.
