Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga are facing an unpredictable political landscape in the 2022 contest promising to go down to the wire.
The contest will largely be shaped by the Mount Kenya voting bloc and the game plan of the One Kenya Alliance chiefs. Why?
In both the 2013 and 2017 polls, President Uhuru Kenyatta with Ruto as his running mate secured an average of 95 per cent from the 10 vote-rich Mt Kenya counties.
Combined with an equally impressive voter turnout in Ruto’s Kalenjin-dominated counties, the duo romped to power in what political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi described then as the tyranny of numbers.
But even then, Uhuru won the 2013 presidential election by the narrowest of margins, 50.07 per cent of the vote, and avoided a runoff.
However, a new poll by Radio Africa suggests Ruto is now leading the presidential race in Mt Kenya region with 57 per cent support. This is compared to 11 per cent for Raila.
Seventeen per cent, however, remain undecided.
This means that the support UhuRuto secured in the last election has diminished for the DP by almost half.
Raila’s backers say he is yet to start campaigning proper in the region while the DP has camped in the region for four years.
But things are not rosy for Raila.
In 2013 and 2017, Ukambani and Western voted overwhelmingly for Raila.
This could change with regional kingpins Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi, both bosses in the One Kenya Alliance, insisting they will go all the way to the ballot.
University don Herman Manyora says the determining factor will be who loses the most and where those lost votes go.
“For Raila, if he loses his votes from Ukambani and Western — as indeed he will lose a bit of that whatever happens — there will be a question of how much he loses. Question number two is who does he lose it to?
"For example, if he were to lose and the vote goes to Ruto, then that spells doom for Raila,” Manyora told the Star.
He also contends that Ruto is heavily dependent on Mt Kenya, which could be suicidal in his political pursuit.
Manyora said Ruto should not secure anything below 70 per cent from Mt Kenya.
“The very lowest he should be at [in Mt Kenya] is 70 per cent and if he were to go to as low as the 57 per cent, then there is no way he can seek compensatory votes from elsewhere,” he stated.
In 2013 and 2017, Raila received the backing of Kalonzo whose Ukambani backyard voted overwhelmingly for the former Prime Minister.
In 2013, for instance, Raila secured 90 per cent in Makueni, 85 per cent in Machakos and 79 per cent in Kitui.
However at the moment, Kalonzo, an Oka principal, has insisted that he is going all the way to the ballot.
The former Vice President has said he would be “the most stupid person on earth” to endorse Raila for the third consecutive time.
“My thinking is that President Uhuru should go home with Raila. If you look at the ages of all the others who want to contest for the presidency, Raila is way ahead of us,” Kalonzo said on Wednesday.
In Western, Raila is also faced with a dicey situation where he could split the regions votes with ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi.
Mudavadi, also an Oka principal, insists his 2022 presidential ambition is unwavering and now, more than ever, he is committed to ascending to power to resuscitate the faltering economy.
He vied in 2013, supported Raila in 2017and has ruled out supporting the ODM leader again.
The ANC leader has intensified his campaigns in Western Kenya where he has urged residents to rally behind him.
Ruto has also been campaigning in the region with a host of MPs from Kakamega and Bungoma counties.
During the 2013 elections, Raila got 63.84 per cent in Kakamega, Vihiga (46.44 per cent), Bungoma (52.38 per cent), Busia (86.82 per cent) and Trans Nzoia (46.03 per cent).
Mudavadi got 30.53 per cent in Kakamega, Vihiga (49.19 per cent), Bungoma (30.73 per cent), Busia (8.42 per cent) and Trans Nzoia (12.38 per cent).
ANC deputy party leader and Lugari MP Ayub Savula said the scenario will be very different in 2022 as Western will overwhelmingly support Mudavadi.
“We have locked Western. The region will vote for their son to the last man. We are campaigning in other regions since Western is already secured,” he stated.
Back to Mount Kenya, Uhuru's falling-out with Ruto over the 2022 succession has drastically changed Raila's fortunes for the better.
The President recently suggested that he was backing Raila for the top job, asking the public to support someone who will continue his development agenda.
Political analyst and Murang'a senator aspirant Peter Kagwanja notes that Raila is gaining in Mt Kenya while Ruto is losing.
“Raila has started to bridge the gap between him and the Deputy President, especially in Mt Kenya,” Kagwanja told the Star.
“The activities that Raila has had in the region and the reception he has received indicate that he is headed to at least a 30 per cent popularity rating.”
In the 2013 polls, records of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission show UhuRuto got 97.11 per cent of the votes in Nyandarua.
He got 95.92 per cent in Murang'a, Kiambu (90.21 per cent), Kirinyaga (95.99 per cent, Nyeri (96.33 per cent) and Tharaka Nithi (92.38 per cent).
However, four of the Mt Kenya governors who were supporting Uhuru are now with Raila.
They are Lee Kinyanjui (Nakuru), Francis Kimemia (Nyandarua), James Nyoro (Kiambu) and Nderitu Muriithi (Laikipia). They have pledged to rally their regions to back Raila.
While Ruto says he has been more close to the region due to his numerous visits since 2013, Raila maintains that he has always believed in the region and its people.
At the Coast, where Raila was overpoweringly supported during 2013, Ruto has been making inroads.
The Deputy President has sustained a charm offensive to weaken the ODM leaders' once-iron grip on the critical region.
Further still, ODM has been supreme in the region but five political parties have since announced a coalition to challenge the dominance of the big political formations.
Kadu Asili, Umoja Summit Party, Shirikisho Party of Kenya, Republican Congress Party and the Communist Party of Kenya (CPK) havethe Coast Integrated Development Initiative (CIDI).
In northern parts of the country, Ruto has some makeup homework to do after top guns from the region said they will back Raila's bid to succeed Uhuru.
In a resolution read by former Wajir Governor Ahmed Abdullahi, the leaders said their support is pegged on the ODM leader’s past and present policies they say are in the best interest of communities from Arid and Semi-Arid Lands.
Garissa Governor Ali Korane, his Wajir counterpart Ahmed Mukhtar and Isiolo's Mohamed Kuti are among the heavyweights supporting Raila.
Also in that camp are Treasury CS Ukur Yatani and Mandera Deputy Governor Mohamed Arai.
(Edited by V. Graham)
