Next month, world leaders will converge in Glasgow for the COP26 international summit.
Once again, we hope to deepen commitments to curb global greenhouse gas emissions and to avert dangerous global warming.
There is credible scientific evidence that a rise in global temperature above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels will usher in a regime of frequent extreme weather events, including droughts, floods, heatwaves, severe cold and coastal flooding from sea level rise. Consequently, hundreds of millions will be displaced, the health and economic impacts, while largely unknown in precise terms, will be devastating and enduring.
The anticipation is the COP26 will deliver a decisive global commitment, especially among the wealthy industrial nations, and China and India to consign fossil fuels to history. At the heart of the climate crisis is our addiction to cheap polluting fossil fuels.
A looming global energy crisis now threatens to derail or make highly improbable any firm commitments to decarbonize the economy. Surging cost of natural gas as well as shortages of coal have caused the price of electricity to triple in some European countries. Rising heating bills, loss of industrial output and the cascading effect on global supply chains will divert attention from the nuanced details that must inform climate action.
Ahead of the COP26, it is the energy crisis, not the climate crisis that is consuming global attention. In Europe critics, blame high energy costs on the of the ambitious green agenda. China is doubling down on coal plants to shore up domestic energy production. High fuel prices in the US will cast a long shadow over economic recovery and will pose political risks for President Joe Biden. Hence, it is not surprising the Biden now wants Opec to dramatically rump up oil production.
The looming energy crisis now persuades many, especially politicians, that the transition to renewable energy is happening too fast. Evidence from Germany, the US and the UK reveal that countries or regions that are furthest along in transitioning to solar or wind power are confronted with power shortages and high electricity prices and even rising carbon emissions.
In fact, sustained periods of overcast skies, low wind and low river discharge require enduring investments to ensure large amounts of standby alternative grid powered by capital-intensive fossil fuel plants. Fluctuations in renewable energy sources, wind, hydro and solar undermine the economics of additional investments. This phenomenon is known as value deflation.
But we must also be alive address the geopolitics of global energy. Russia has been accused of slowing gas supplies to Europe to expedite approval for the gas pipeline that runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany. The Chinese have intentionally kept mountains of coal imported from Australia because the Australian government has been calling for investigations into the origins of Covid-19.
The short-term economic merits of fossil fuels will trump and undermine long-term investments in clean energy. The path to decarbonizing the global economy will remain narrow and frustrating. The COP26 climate summit must not be in vain.
Views expressed are the writer’s
