Will Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed redeem himself in second term?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was sworn-in for his second five-year term on October 4.

However, unlike in April 2018 when he came to power with hopes to change the fortunes of the Horn of Africa country, his inauguration was happening under a cloud of war and humanitarian crisis in Tigray, the northern part of Ethiopia.

A war led by the 2019 Nobel Prize laureate who triggered widespread reforms in Ethiopia and restored diplomatic relations with Eritrea. Ahmed opened the border 20 years after their war and hostile relations only four months after taking office.

In November last year, Ethiopia’s federal government declared war on its northern region of Tigray. This led to fears of a protracted conflict in Africa’s second-most populous country.

Ahmed accused TPLF forces of attacking a federal forces camp and led what he term as rule of law operation.

The Tigray region is one of 10 semi-autonomous federal states organised along ethnic lines in Ethiopia.

The conflict has, however, caused a humanitarian crisis in Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions and attracted regional and international attention.

The Nobel Committee that awarded PM Ahmed the 2019 Peace Prize said in November last year that it was “deeply concerned” about fighting in the country and called for deescalation.

“The committee is closely following developments in Ethiopia and is deeply concerned,” its secretary, Olav Njolstad, told AFP at the time.

Its reactions was among other calls for deescalation, with the African Union, the European Union, the US and the United Nations all calling for a peaceful end to the conflict.

However, Ahmed has repeatedly ruled out dialogue with Tigray region leaders, saying he would only speak to representatives “operating legally” after the “criminal clique in Tigray is crushed”.

His hardline position, with the recent expulsion of UN officials has put the Nobel laureate at loggerheads with international community.

African leaders who attended his inauguration insist on peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Speaking during the inauguration, President Uhuru Kenyatta said he would support Ahmed in his endeavours to rebuild Ethiopia.

“Kenya stands ready to work shoulder to shoulder with our brothers and sisters in Ethiopia to build a great region of prosperity and peace,” he said.

The President further urged the Ethiopian Prime Minister to give priority to the unity of all Ethiopians irrespective of their political choices and persuasions.

“I remind you today that the people of Ethiopia have given you a mandate to lead, a mandate to bring peace, a mandate to build stability, a mandate to bring all the people of Ethiopia together,” Kenyatta said.

Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni called on Ethiopia to shun politics of identity based on tribes and regions. A characteristic of politics in post-independence Africa, as it is counterproductive, leads to the collapse of many states.

He called on Africans, particularly Ethiopians, to instead support leaders based on politics of interest and agenda.

“I have been observing and participating in politics for the past 60 years. We have some observations.

"One of the problems in Uganda has been identity politics that has caused lots of problems. We addressed the issue and moved from politics of identity to politics of interest,” Museveni said.

Djibouti President Ismail Guelleh said Ethiopians have gone through defining moments in their history, but emerged stronger.

“I am confident that Ethiopia will remain stronger and reconcile with all its children,” Guelleh said.

South Sudan President Salva Kiir said he was confident Ethiopia will resolve all the challenges its is facing through peaceful mechanisms.

The message was echoed as far as West Africa, with Nigeria President Muhammadu Buhari calling for peace and stability in Ethiopia.

Buhari said Nigeria would continue to support the unity and territorial integrity of Ethiopia.

“We are well aware of the many challenges facing the people of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and we encourage all parties to come together in the interest of the unity, progress and well-being of Ethiopia,” Buhari said.

“Your Excellency, you, therefore, have a great opportunity to continue to work for the peace and stability of Ethiopia.”

Probably convinced, Ahmed said his government “will soon launch” an all-inclusive national dialogue towards healing and reconciliation.

“This is not a dialogue of political elites alone but will be encompassing all sections of society,” he noted.

On October 1, Ethiopia President Sahle-Work Zewde hinted at possible negotiations between the Ethiopia Federal Government and Tigray region leaders.

This emerged when President Zewde, largely ceremonial, met Africa Union Special envoy for the Horn of Africa and former Nigeria President Olusegun Obasanjo in Addis Ababa.

“There is always a window of opportunity for a peaceful political solution to any armed conflict that should never be closed,” Zewde said.

It was at the time seen as a departure from Ahmed, who has rejected calls from AU and regional envoys for talks with Tigray leaders.

Obasanjo was appointed envoy by AU Commission chairman Moussa Faki on August 26 as part of the African Union’s drive to promote peace, security, stability and political dialogue in the Horn of Africa region.

Despite easing his hardline stand, he still has a lot to do to redeem his international standing, especially having expelled seven UN officials.

United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres said he was shocked by the move saying, "All UN humanitarian operations are guided by the core principles of humanity, impartiality, neutrality and independence.”

“ In Ethiopia, the UN is delivering lifesaving aid – including food, medicine, water and sanitation supplies – to people in need. I have full confidence in the UN staff who are in Ethiopia doing this work”.

The United States “strongly” condemned expulsion of the UN officials and called for an immediate reversal of the decision.

It is another step back in the deteriorating diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.

President Joe Biden also issued an Executive Order on September 17, establishing a new sanctions regime that authorises the imposition of targeted economic sanctions in connection with the crisis in Tigray.

(Edited by Bilha Makokha)