- IBEC aims to register those who may have attained the voting age before 2017, but for one reason or the other, had not been listed as voters.
- Also targeted are Kenyans living in diaspora, with the commission including six new countries to the diaspora list.
Image: FILE
Deputy President William Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga are plotting aggressive campaigns to shore up their vote blocs, shifting their 2022 battle to voter listing.
With at least six million young people having hit 18, and therefore eligible to vote, the two are raring for a 2022 dress rehearsal starting next week.
The Star has established that think tanks devoted to the two 2022 presidential hopefuls are plotting how to mobilise those who did not participate in the 2017 election to register and vote.
Some analysts have projected that President Uhuru Kenyatta's succession could heavily be determined by those who will vote for the first time next year.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission will on Monday start a 30-day mass voter registration exercise across all the 47 counties.
The polls agency has said it is targeting to list at least 25 million voters, up from 19.61 million voters in the 2017 General Election.
In the nullified presidential vote of August 2017, President Uhuru garnered 8,203,290 votes, representing 54.3 per cent, against Raila's 6,762,224 votes (44.7 per cent).
Raila's ODM party is seeking to marshal as many new young voters as possible, mainly in its strongholds.
The party's Central Management Committee - the top decision making organ - has directed MPs to move to the grassroots to lead the voter listing campaign.
“We urge all party leaders at the grassroots and all members elected and nominated on the party ticket to now retreat to their respective areas to coordinate and support voter registration," said ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna.
The ODM official said the the party has also asked its MPs to mobilise people to collect their identity cards for purposes of voter registration.
“Out of the targeted new voters, we have noticed that more than half of the number is in our party’s traditional strongholds of Nyanza, Western, Coast and Nairobi," he said.
This even as the DP's United Democratic Alliance said it has developed an elaborate strategy that will ensure that as many as possible new voter are listed in their strongholds.
Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua said UDA will soon be launching massive voter mobilisation across the country. He said the party is mapping the country as per the statistics available at the Registration of Persons office.
“There are millions of uncollected identification cards at various offices across the country and we have many young people who are now at the right age to get IDs; these are the people we want to appeal to, to participate in the leadership of this country," Gachagua told the Star.
The IEBC has said the 20-day exercise targets to register at least six million new voters.
"We urge eligible Kenyans who have not registered as voters to turn up in large numbers and register,” IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati said last month.
Those targeted are youths who hit 18 years and have acquired identity cards from 2017.
IBEC also aims to register those who may have attained the voting age before 2017, but for one reason or the other had not been listed as voters.
Also targeted are Kenyans living in diaspora, with the commission including six new countries to the diaspora list.
They are South Sudan, USA, United Kingdom, Canada, Qatar and the United Arabs Emirates. The commission said the countries meet the minimum requirement of 3,000 voters.
Only Kenyans living in Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and South Africa participated in the 2017 General Election.
The lot is a crucial vote bloc in shaping the 2022 presidential race thus becoming a new battleground for the presidential front-runners.
According to the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census results, some 5.28 million Kenyans were within the ages of 15 and 19.
This means that by next year, those who were 15 years old in 2019 will turn 18 – adult age.
Added to those who turned 18 just before the 2019 census, six to seven million Kenyans could be eligible for listing as voters in the upcoming exercise.
An analysis of the census results by the Star shows that those hitting the adult age are concentrated in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Mt Kenya backyard, Ruto’s Rift Valley turf and Raila’s bases of Nyanza, Western and Coast.
Political pundits believe that the 2022 election will be won by the candidate who will outdo his competitors in mobilising their supporters to register as voters as well as turn out to vote on the voting day.
“Winning an election is informed by many variables that include ensuring that their supporters secure ID cards, register as voters and offer them an incentive to vote,” Dismus Mokua, a Nairobi based political risk analyst, said.
The data shows that Kiambu, with a population 2.41 million, had the highest number of youths turning 18.
The capital, seen as a swing ground even though Raila maintained a slim edge over Uhuru in both 2013 and 2017 general elections, had 378, 550 people aged between 15 and 19 in 2019.
The lot will be eligible to list as voters if they have acquired the national ID.
The census results show that the 10 counties in Mt Kenya region have about 1.16 million people who are potentially eligible new voters.
Kiambu, Nakuru, Meru and Muranga have the highest number of people in the age bracket that are eligible to be listed as voters.
Kiambu had 227, 330, Nakuru had 274, 490, Meru had 194, 922 while Murang’a had 117, 756 people within the ages of 15 and 19.
Others are Embu (67, 966), Nyandarua (82, 873), Nyeri (76, 522), Kirinyaga (60, 996) and Laikipia (65, 297).
The vote-rich region has been a battleground for Ruto and Raila following the bitter falling out of the President and his deputy soon after their re-election in 2017.
Raila has intensified efforts to penetrate the region that has voted against him four times.
However, Raila’s fortunes seem to be turning around, with the former prime minister seemingly enjoying the President’s support.
Early this week, influential business tycoons from the region - Mount Kenya Foundation - supported Raila’s candidature.
On his part, the DP has been camping in the region since 2017, creating and building networks and attempting to win over the hearts of leaders and residents.
In Nyanza, Raila’s home turf, the data shows that some 965, 514 people have hit the adult age thus eligible to be listed as new voters.
Kisii leads with 195, 386 followed by Homa Bay with 181, 334, Migori 179, 630, Kisumu 164, 523, Siaya 151, 148 and Nyamira 93, 493.
Western has about one million eligible new votes. They are in Trans Nzoia (149, 348), Kakamega (291, 977), Vihiga (87, 659), Bungoma (260, 954) and Busia (138, 934).
There are about 915, 259 eligible youths in Ruto’s Rift Valley, excluding Narok, Kajiado and Nakuru.
They are distributed as follows: Uasin Gishu (146, 560), Baringo (80, 948), Nandi (126, 113), Elgeyo Marakwet (65, 541), West Pokot (95, 174), Turkana (142, 258), Kericho (127, 017) and Bomet (Sh131, 348).
Narok and Kajiado, considered swing areas, had 179, 417 and 129, 632 people within the ages of 15 and 19 in 2019.
The coastal region, where Raila has enjoyed massive support in the previous election, has 489, 607 eligible new voters.
They include Mombasa (100, 733), Kwale (125, 289), Kilifi (173, 350), Tana River (32,932), Lamu (18, 473) and Tana River (39, 830).
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s Ukambani home turf has at least 476, 104 eligible voters spread across the three counties of Kitui (173, 496), Machakos (166, 215) and Makueni (136, 393).
The four counties in the northeastern region also have a critical mass of potential new voters that will be up for grabs.
They are in Garissa (136, 663), Marsabit (71, 437), Mandera (149, 473), Isiolo (38, 914) and Wajir (74, 969).