It is possible Raila Odinga may make some inroads in the Mt Kenya regions but it is highly unlikely.
As an individual, he is unlikely to convince the general population of that region that he should be the next president.
But even after all these years, Raila has been receiving some small number of votes from the region. So, he has some following there.
However, the people from that area are highly skeptical about him. I am certain he will make inroads this time but it may not very much.
People have been fed on lies and poisoned that Raila is a bad person. That has refused to leave the minds of the people there and that is why he has struggled over years to win over the region.
They have been convinced and told so many lies. The lies are so many that they have come to believe them.
But even in the last election, he had some votes from the region on his own. He has been having a small following.
It will definitely improve in next year’s polls.
On his own, he can get 20 per cent of the votes from the Central Kenya.
But with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s support and all these other concerted efforts by people around him, his popularity can increase.
He can hive up to 30 per cent. That is good for him. Once he has 30 per cent, he has taken the presidency from Deputy President William Ruto.
Ruto will definitely take the highest percentage but remember, he needs 101 per cent of the region to win the presidency. It will be bad for him if Raila takes 30 per cent.
And that is the reason why the DP has been camping in Mt Kenya.
Remember in 2013, Jubilee won the 50 per cent plus with less than 10,000 votes. And they had Rift Valley and Central as a bloc.
So, Raila's aim is to stop Ruto from getting the 100 per cent vote that will be done for him. He will have a good chance.
The university don and political observer spoke to the Star on the phone
(Edited by V. Graham)
