President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party is facing arguably its lowest moment, following in the footsteps of PNU that delivered one victory and then virtually disintegrated.
The once vibrant political outfit brought on board 13 parties that folded and joined before the 2017 General Election. It was a juggernaut.
But today, it's struggling to win a political seat in areas where it once had near-fanatical support.
The party was recently humiliated in two parliamentary by-elections in Juja and Kiambaa, right at the President’s Kiambu backyard.
Pundits trace the rapid downhill slide of the ruling party to the President's move to kick out leaders allied to his deputy, William Ruto, from party and parliamentary positions.
The falling out between the two principals is also cited when the ruling party’s misfortunes are being discussed.
In the purge emanating from the UhuRuto falling out, Jubilee sponsored radical changes in which DP Ruto's allies were kicked out of plum part and parliamentary positions. The charge? They were not loyal to the President.
Affected in the radical shake-up were Garissa Township MP Aden Duale (Majority leader), Tharaka Nithi Senator Kindiki Kithure (Deputy Speaker), Murangá Senator Irungu Kang’ata (Majority Whip), Spy MP Caleb Kositany (deputy secretary ), Nakuru Senator Susan Kihika (majority Whip), Elgeyo Marakwet Senator Kipchumba Murkomen (Majority leader) and nominated MP Cecily Mbarire (majority deputy chief whip).
Also removed from parliamentary committee was nominated MP David Sankok, who had switched allegiance to DP Ruto’s hustler camp.
The party also instituted disciplinary action against former nominated Senator Isaac Mwaura, who eventually lost his seat. He is now in court.
The purge also moved to the Cabinet where Ruto men - Mwangi Kiunjuri and Rashid Achesa – were fired from Agriculture and Sports ministries, respectively.
However, some quarters still attribute the dwindling JP’s fortunes to Uhuru’s leadership style, which allowed DP Ruto to invade his territory.
Kang'ata told the Star that Jubilee has reached the point where it cannot be salvaged and its impact on 2022 polls will be insignificant..
In a phone interview with the Star, Kangáta said the Jubilee’s defeats in the two by-elections in Uhuru’s Kiambu backyard confirm the region has abandoned the President, who is serving his final term.
“President Kenyatta represents the present and Deputy President William Ruto represents the future. The outcome of Kiambaa to Uhuru means that Central loves him but he is the present that will terminate soon,” Kang'ata said on phone.
“Jubilee cannot be salvaged unless it makes DP its candidate,” he added.
The same line was taken by Kositany, who described JP a dead party that is increasingly becoming irrelevant ahead of next year’s general election.
“There is going to be a mass exodus from Jubilee in the coming months – whether to UDA or to other parties, I don’t know. Nobody ever wants to be associated with a sinking ship. When a ship is sinking, you have to jump out; whether you know how to swim or not, you have to jump out,” he said.
Molo MP Kimani Kuria, however, attributes the Jubilee’s downward trajectory to the falling out between the President and his deputy.
The lawmaker also linked the absence of a clear communication on the party’s 2022 presidential candidate to the dwindling fortunes of the once-vigorous vibrant outfit.
“The supposed falling between the President and his deputy has been a contributing factor because for a very long time the party was built on UhuRuto. In the absence of one, most people did not know how to move forward,” Kimani told the Star.
He added, “We didn’t have a presidential candidate and for a very long time, we didn’t know if the falling out was real or not. We were not fielding a candidate ourselves as a party because most people want a party that has a future.
"And the fact that there was no clear direction that this is the way we are going in the next election was also a factor," he said.
The Molo MP also blamed over reliance on technocrats to run the party as another contributor to Jubilee's woes.
He, however, said the President's leadership style was not the source of Jubilee's troubles. He said the current disarray was expected after DP Ruto threw his weight behind the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
“The party that is led by technocrats, who are not necessarily politicians ... there has been a lot of blame game about that. And there has not been clear information flow and a clear sense of direction with senior politicians in the party blaming technocrats and technocrats blaming the politicians.”
“When the party was created based on two individuals and one individual goes and forms a different party, then you expect the trajectory we are having. We are hoping that the lesson the party has learnt in the several by-elections is a wake-up call,” he said.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo agrees that the falling out is at the centre of Jubilee's current problems.
However, he adds that President Kenyatta's 'targeted' war on corruption and the handshake with the opposition was also a contributing factor.
“The handshake and the popularisation of BBI threatened DP Ruto's State House ambition.
"While the President's agenda through the BBI was to reunite the country through BBI, the Deputy President was reading from a different script that strained the relationship further,” he said.
He noted that Uhuru’s anti-corruption war was politicised and was seen to only target one side of the Jubilee party — the Tangatanga stalwarts.
“The DP himself has been at the forefront in complaining that the war on corruption has been politicised to target those affiliated to him, Tangatanga and ultimately the UDA wing."
(Edited by V. Graham)
