Raila: Referendum must be held this year

ODM leader Raila Odinga on Tuesday gave yet another strong hint the country will hold a referendum to change the Constitution before the end of the year.

His comments came just days after Siaya Senator James Orengo said Parliament would be required to play a crucial role in the next few months.

The ongoing purge of House leaders perceived to be rebelling against President Uhuru Kenyatta and the publication of the Referendum Bill(s) sparked a sense of urgency.

The Building Bridges Initiative drive suffered a setback because of the coronavirus pandemic, which led to restricted movement and a ban on large gatherings.

Raila said the vote will be held before the end of this year but cautioned the country must first economically recover.

“I see a referendum happening before the end of this year…it is possible before the end of the year,” the ODM leader told Milele FM on Tuesday.

Among proposals before the BBI steering committee is the expansion of the Executive to introduce the Prime Minister's post.

Raila, however, said the priority was to restore Kenyans’ livelihoods battered by Covid-19, floods and locusts.

“These situations have brought poverty, diseases and joblessness, hence our call to the government to take steps to restore the economy,” he said.

He further played down BBI’s link to the next polls, saying that “people should not talk of 2022 yet there is still the BBI question.”

The ODM leader hailed President Kenyatta’s Sh54 billion jobs plan, saying it was a commendable step that would help Kenyans.

The post-pandemic stimulus package is premised on an eight-point strategy aimed at creating jobs under Kazi Mtaani, flood mitigation and boosting trade.

“These must be dealt with first before we return to reggae. We can’t return to politics when people are still hungry,” Raila said.

“And as they say, a hungry man is an angry man. We wouldn’t want to take politics to angry people,” Raila said.

The ODM boss restated the BBI drive was not dead as its opponents claim.

“We said no one can stop reggae. It has not been stopped. Covid-19 is not a person. Reggae is on half-time. It will come back soon,” Raila said.

He downplayed the effects of Covid-19 on the process, saying it had given the BBI steering committee time to continue with research on its recommendations.

The BBI campaign received recommendations in Nyanza, Western, Coast, Eastern, Maasai areas, Garissa and Meru. Rift Valley and Nairobi were yet to be covered.

“When we open, the report will be given to Kenyans to digest before we make recommendations that need constitutional change to the vote,” Raila said.

The Star has established that the BBI team is finalising the report ahead of the June 30 deadline.

The Senator Yusuf Haji-led team is expected to submit it to President Uhuru Kenyatta to start the process.

By press time, BBI joint-secretary Paul Mwangi had not responded to calls about the report's progress.

Experts and politicians have, however, raised the red flag that a referendum would not be possible this year considering the impact of Covid-19 on the economy.

Others have cited the squeezed timelines for the Bill to go through the required stages.

Belgut MP Nelson Koech noted that ordinarily, it would take up to six months to amend the Constitution under Article 256.

“But considering how the state has bulldozed issues with impunity in the past few days, everything is possible under the sun, including a referendum not backed by law,” he said.

The legislator argued that the Article provides that the Bill cannot be called for second reading until the expiry of 90 days after the first reading.

Koech said apart from timelines by the IEBC, the process at the county assemblies - at least 24 must support it - will take another three months.

The MP cited inadequate budgetary provision as yet another impediment. The allocation to IEBC in the 2020 budget has no provision for an election.

Koech said those pushing for the vote, whom he termed a power-hungry cabal, cared less about the pandemic ravaging the country.

“Such is the insensitivity of the two brothers [the President and Raila] and that is why Raila is bullish in his talks of a referendum within a predetermined timeline,” he said.

Koech said it was unfortunate the changes were being instigated to fix DP William Ruto and cautioned President Uhuru Kenyatta that the move would be counterproductive.

“The law is a two-edged sword that cuts both ends in equal proportion. That is why it should not be made with anybody in mind,” Koech said.

“So, what happens if Ruto opts out of the contest yet you have invested resources and time to mutilate a Constitution to isolate him?” he asked.

Dr Charles Nzai, an economics lecturer, said it was possible for Uhuru and Raila to bring the referendum this year.

“If the government feels this matter is of paramount importance to the people or the government's agenda, it can be done this year. The government has the machinery to do that. So it's all about how the matter is conceived by the government,” he told the Star on the phone.

Constitutional lawyer Bobby Mkangi noted that there were several challenges standing on the way of a referendum this year.

He cited the Health ministry’s projection that Covid-19 infections will peak in August and September o 200 to 300 cases per day with more testing.

Mkangi, who was in the Committee of Experts that crafted the 2010 Constitution, said that with this scenario, it will be difficult to conduct a referendum.

He cited other challenges in the reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, time for consensus building on referendum issues, and the state of the economy after Covid-19.

“Logistically and socio-economically, we will have a bigger problem as a country. Those behind the push will first have to find out if citizens are interested in it," he said.

"From the look of things, it is not possible this year. It will be insensitive to our economy and international donors to ask for money for a referendum after the coronavirus,” Mkangi said.

Raila dismissed claims that he would chair an economic recovery council, a unit which was said to comprise his key allies.

“This is fake news. The President would have informed me if he wanted me to take that task. This is just a story.”

Edited by Henry Makori