Jitters in ODM as Raila abandons reform agenda

A move by opposition chief Raila Odinga to drop ODM's long-held push for a parliamentary system of government has triggered disquiet within his camp. 

He made the strategic climb down as part of his concessions to rally broad-based national support for the Building Bridges Initiative.

The Star has established the move was to avoid antagonising President Uhuru Kenyatta's vote-rich Mount Kenya backyard – a region that has lately been flirting with the ex-PM.

Mount Kenya leaders have strongly opposed the parliamentary system of government, saying it will disadvantage them because of few constituencies.

This is despite their "tyranny of number".

The climb down was also meant to be a political master stroke to counter Deputy President William Ruto's onslaught against an executive PM.

But some ODM ideologues now say it was improper to drop their party's driven push for political expediency.

"We have always said that a parliamentary system is the only panacea to electoral theft in Kenya. Will we come back in 2022 and start agitating for a fresh constitutional change after presidential elections are rigged?"a senior official within ODM told the Star.

Since the handshake in 2018, Raila has on several occasions argued that a parliamentary system would end electoral theft and give a fair chance to "small tribes" to produce a President.

The suggestion, however, has remained unpopular among the ruling elite.

In 2010, Raila made a similar surprise U-turn and accepted the current pure presidential system to the consternation of his men.

Fiery lawyer Miguna Miguna claims in his book that Raila made the concession with the hope that he was in pole position to succeed then President Mwai Kibaki.

“Your Excellency, I have a suggestion to make. I’m not sure if the suggestion will be accepted or rejected, but I get the feeling that we are not making progress. What would the PNU team’s response be if we, the ODM side, suggested that we adopt a pure presidential system?”Miguna quotes Raila as having told Kibaki.

"Raila finished and fiddled with his pen. There was complete silence. Everyone was shocked."

The Star has established that hours before ODM was scheduled to present its views to the Yusuf Haji-led BBI steering committee on Wednesday, Raila summoned his trusted allies for a session at Serena Hotel.

It was at the meeting that Raila broke the news that he would cede ground from his strongly-held position for a powerful PM. ODM also abandoned calls for a three tier system of government.

Raila argued that the idea was divisive and should not come directly from the Orange Party.

However, at BBI forums in Nyanza, Western and Coast, all seen as Raila's political bastions have asked for a parliamentary system with executive PM

It is understood that Raila told his allies that climbing down from an executive premier push would counter Ruto's onslaught against an executive PM.

The DP opposed the introduction of a parliamentary system with a powerful PM and two deputies. His allies claimed it was a scheme by dynasties to retain power after 2022.

In what was seen as a strategy to beat Raila in his own game, Ruto had alleged that the opposition leader was leading a campaign to sponsor radical proposals to alter the original BBI report.

This far, Ruto and his brigade vowed to rally behind the BBI report that was launched in November last year by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila at the Bomas of Kenya which called for a weaker PM with two deputies.

Yesterday former Buret MP Franklin Bett told the Star that Raila has had long-held approval of a parliamentary system but his change of heart could be strategic.

“There is a whole roller-coaster of issues. I have no specific response on Raila's change of position but I believe it is a serious political calculation,” Bett told the Star on the phone.

The former Cabinet minister in the grand coalition government said ODM pushed for a powerful PM during the Naivasha Accord where adjustments were made to the Bomas Draft.

The opposition leader has previously claimed that a premier with executive powers would be the solution to the country's recurrent electoral chaos.

“If we had adopted the Bomas Draft under the leadership of Prof Yash Pal Ghai, we would not be having these problems. A parliamentary system is viewed as a better way to raise the majority threshold in a country where tribes view each other with suspicion in the race for power,” Raila said in September 2019.

Kisumu Senator Anyang' Nyong'o, a close ally of Raila, has argued that Kenya's presidential system is "an ugly beast" that the country should urgently get rid of.

“The presidential system of government is bad. It is bad, period!” Nyong’o wrote in his book titled, “Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy in Kenya.”

“I propose a parliamentary system for very good reasons. The presidential system destroys parties and creates a one-man show that brings about sycophancy."

A section of Raila's allies told the Star the PM had thrown them under the bus with his sudden change of heart, claiming that a parliamentary system was still the best for the country.

Fearing a political backlash for going against the party's position, the MPs warned that Raila's latest flip-flop could give impetus to his critics led by Ruto while complicating his game plan from Mt Kenya.

“This is utmost betrayal. We made the same mistake in 2010 in Naivasha and conceded key issues without a second thought. This will come to haunt us again, especially when our people are ready for a parliamentary system,” a second-term MP from Nyanza said.

Uhuru's Mt Kenya region, a key political bastion in the BBI push, is rooting for a powerful prime minister, a proposal that would be at cross purposes with Raila's push.

The region's political lights including governors Anne Waiguru of Kirinyaga, Kiraitu Murungi of Meru, Muthomi Njuki of Tharaka Nithi are backing proposals for a powerful PM.

Yesterday political analyst Macharia Munene told the Star that Raila's U-turn on a parliamentary system signals that he could have been convinced that he will succeed Uhuru in 2022.

“Raila believes that he has chances of being president. It shows that he wants to be president and not PM,” the United States Internal University professor said.

Macharia said Raila has been pushing for a powerful PM as a plan B in case he doesn't win the presidency and now that he believes he has higher chances of election he cares not.

Fears that the executive PM post was unpopular among Kenyans and that Ruto had made significant ground in his onslaught could have forced Raila to change tack.

The push for a parliamentary system had been Raila's major plank augmenting his nationwide BBI campaigns.