Ethnic alliances are set to determine the political direction in Tana River County ahead of the August polls.
The county is home to over seven indigenous communities, with three being the largest and key determinants of the electoral outcome.
These communities include the Orma who are currently in power, the Wardei and the Pokomo the Mnyoyaya, the Watta (Aweir), the Malakotte and the Somali. There are other communities that have immigrated to the county.
In the 2013 general election the Orma and Wardei forged an alliance, which enabled Governor Hussein Dado and Deputy Governor Jire Sayat to win in that election.
The situation is different this time round after reports that the Wardei fell out with the Orma for what they termed failure by Governor Dado to stick to the MoU they signed before the elections.
Reports indicate the Wardei are considering signing a new deal, probably with the Pokomo , ahead of the general election.
Dado fell out with Siyat, a Wardei, last year over what the latter termed as dictatorial leadership style of his boss.
Already, there are six aspirants who have declared their interest in the governor position, including the incumbent.
Traditionally, having many aspirants from one community has cost, many hopefuls.
From the Orma, there are two aspirants — Dado and his former Finance excecutive Ismail Algi.
Algi resigned from his post after differing with the governor in 2015, and immediately launched his governor bid.
All the candidates are battling to win the endorsement of the Gasa elders in the pastoral Orma community known as
Matadelta
In Tana River, political parties don't influence the outcome of elections as Gasa elders do.
If one gets their blessings of the elders, it becomes easy to win votes from the clansmen.
The Pokomos, who are predominantly farmers, have three hopefuls who have declared interest in the top seat.
They include former Garsen MP Danson Mungatana of the Jubilee Party, former Galole MP Major (Rtd) Dhadho Godana and Tana River executive Adam Barrisa, both of ODM.
Three other aspirants from the same community are yet to declare whether they will continue with the race or not. They are former commissioner in the now-defunct Transition Authority Bakari Garise, former county transition coordinator Karhayu Deye, and county budget controller Suleiman Buko.
The huge number of aspirants from the community is now giving Pokomo Council of Elders a hard time in choosing who to endorse. This has created cracks within the council, which has endorsed two hopefuls. Their plan was to have only one of their sons as the candidate.
Mungatana and Godana, who are key personalities in the Pokomo community, were endorsed by different factions of the Gasa elders.
Mungatana, former KPA chairman and also the Jubilee Party point man in the county was endorsed by a faction of the Gasa council of elders at Majengo village, Kinakomba ward, in November last year.
The following month, another faction endorsed Godana in Laini village, Chewani ward.
Each of the two aspitrants has been chest-thumping, claiming to the one who was endorsed by the elders.
Mungatana told the Star immediately after the endorsement of Godana that he was the only one who was endorsed by the majority of elders from Kipini to Mbalambala.
However, his sentiments were dismissed by the former Galole MP who claimed to be the rightful candidate
The Wardei, who are pastoralists like the Orma, have speaker Nassir Abdi Nuhas the sole candidate. He was endorsed by the Wardei Council of Elders known as Ukas in January.
Elders reportedly spent three days in Gafuru village deliberating on who would be their preferred candidate for the governor seat.
Others who had shown interest in the seat were Deputy Governor Sayyat and Garsen MP Ibrahim Sane.
Nuh, the chairman of the County Assemblies Speakers Forum, emerged the winner with 19 votes followed by Sane who garnered 12 votes and the deputy governor who got only two votes
The Garsen legislator reportedly conceded defeat and announced he had quit elective politics.
However, Sayat is said to have disputed the results and appealed against the outcome.
Nuh in his acceptance speech said he would name his running mate after consultating other communities to ensure an all-inclusive county government if he wins in August.
Traditionally, an alliance of the Orma and the Pokomo, the Orma and the Wardei or the Wardei and the Pokomo determine the winner irrespective of the political party they are in.
Preliminary reports had indicated that the Pokomo were likely to forge an alliance with the Wardei who have since fallen out with the Orma.
This strategy might not work because of the number of aspirants among the Pokomo and the Orma.
It is believed that some of the hopefuls could be ‘projects’ meant to split votes in favour of other tribes.
While governor aspirants are struggling to seek alliances, aspirants for other seats are also striving to be endorsed by elders. These range from the Senate seat candidates, MPs, Woman rep to MCAs. This is largelly because of the influence by the elders.
This time round, some of the elders said they will set certain conditions before endorsing any candidate, among them, taking an oath to fulfill the pledges once elected.
The decision was reached after successive elected leaders breached the agreement with elders, ignoring them and not meeting their expectations.
Due to this, no political party has played dominance if the outcome of the 2013 general election is anything to go by.
The governor and Woman representative Halima Ware were elected on the Wiper ticket while all the three MPs awere elected on the Jubilee coalition ticket.
ODM, however, has the majority in the county assemble.
Senator Ali Abdi Bule was elected on the Federal Party of Kenya ticket, while Galole MP Hassan Dukicha was elected on the UDF ticket.
Others are Garsen MP Ibrahim Sane, elected on the URP ticket and Bura MP Ali Wario vied on TNA.
The governor says he has managed restore peace and unity in the count, which experienced bloody clashes in 2012.
Mungatana, however, has constantly accused the governor of corruption and vowed to deal with all those engaged in graft within 100 days
after being elected.
The county is among the areas that were labelled marginalised before devolution came into effect.
It still has high poverty levels, poor infrastructure, low education standards and constantly experiences ethnic violence.