A month after his surprise "earthquake" deal with Deputy President William Ruto, ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi's political value remains debatable, especially in his Western Kenya backyard.
Although his entry alongside Ford Kenya party leader Moses Wetang'ula appears to have fired up the Ruto team at the national stage, the latest opinion polls suggest ODM leader Raila Odinga remains the man to beat in Western.
Two separate opinion polls have shown that Mudavadi has not increased Ruto's ratings in Western and that Raila has in fact gained after what was widely billed as the “earthquake”.
An opinion poll done by Radio Africa Group indicates Raila had enhanced his popularity in Western from 40.2 per cent last month to 45.1 per cent.
Ruto’s popularity on the other hand declined marginally to stand at 37.7 per cent from 38.7 per cent.
Another poll done by Tifa between February 3 and 9 indicated Raila had gained in Western by 10 points to stand at 31 per cent.
Ruto only gained by two points to stand at 28 per cent.
Tifa lead researcher Tom Wolf said the results show the Mudavadi and Wetangu'la's move has had no significant impact.
Musalia is just a paper tiger, in fact his defection to Ruto’s camp further worsened his fortunes across Western Kenya
“As for Raila’s absolute/relative gain in Western, it seems Mudavadi and Wetang’ula’s recent move into the Kenya Kwanza Alliance has not yet yielded measurable dividends, perhaps a reflection of the reported defections from ANC and Ford-Kenya to ODM,” the pollster said.
Mudavadi has lost his former pillars in his backyard, including his former deputy ANC leader Ayub Savula who is now supporting Raila’s presidency under the Azimio La Umoja movement.
Other MPs who deserted Musalia include Tindi Mwale (Butere), Oku Kaunya (Teso North), Peter Nabulindo (Matungu), Godffrey Osotsi (nominated), Christopher Aseka (Khwisero), George Khaniri (Vihiga) and Lurambi MP Titus Khamala.
The defectors joined Raila's ODM while others joined newly formed Democratic Action Party affiliated to Azimio La Umoja.
“Musalia is just a paper tiger, in fact his defection to Ruto’s camp further worsened his fortunes across Western Kenya,” DAP-K secretary general Eseli Simiyu said.
The former Ford Kenya secretary general said the Azimio machine being propelled by Raila and President Uhuru Kenyatta will vanquish Musalia and Wetang'ula.
“They (Mudavadi and Wetang'ula) are headed to political oblivion with Azimio set to form the next government, actually their rating is negligible,” the Tongaren MP said.
But nominated Senator Petronilla Were, an ally of Mudavadi, said the earthquake tremors triggered a lot of confusion among their rivals in Western Kenya.
“Musalia is firmly in Kenya Kwanza and according to our own polls, his rating in Western Kenya has gone up because he has been decisive and given his people direction,” she said.
The MP said, "Some of the defe
ctors who crossed over to Raila’s camp have started reaching out because they have found the ground hostile without Musalia.
“We shall turn the tables on Azimio in Western Kenya in the next few weeks as our people come to terms with Musalia’s decision,” Were said.
However, Raila’s Azimio team says it has crafted an elaborate strategy to consolidate the region ahead of the August polls.
Raila is relying on the region’s political bigwigs led by Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and Defence CS Eugene Wamalwa to diminish Ruto’s chances.
The team has been campaigning across the region to shore up Raila's fortunes.
DAP-K has become a key plank of Raila’s Western region game plan to cut Musalia and Wetang'ula down to size, especially in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia.
The Raila team is also working with Cotu secretary general Francis Atwoli as well as Governors Wilber Ottichilo (Vihiga), Sospeter Ojaamong (Busia) and Bungoma’s Wycliffe Wangamati.
When Mudavadi ran for president for the first time in 2013, Raila outclassed the ANC boss in the region.
Ruto will continue to drop points in Western Kenya because the Luyha community feels betrayed by Musalia whom they wanted to run or support Raila
Raila beat Mudavadi in four of the five Western Kenya counties, with the ANC leader only winning his Vihiga home turf by just 5,000 votes.
Mudavadi supported Raila in 2007 as running mate and was the ODM boss’s chief presidential campaigner in the 2017 polls under the Nasa coalition.
He has impressive economic credentials and if he could significantly uplift the economy, he would be a great addition to the team. That only happens if Ruto wins.
Savula, the new DAP-K deputy, termed Mudavadi a spent force who has no political value for Ruto going forward.
“We have now locked Western for Raila and Azimio. There is no room for Kenya Kwanza in Western, even with Musalia on that team,” Savula said.
He went on, “Ruto will continue to drop points in Western Kenya because the Luyha community feels betrayed by Musalia whom they wanted to run or support Raila.”
Mwale, a former Mudavadi ally, told the Star that with the uncertainty of what position Musalia will get in the Ruto arrangement, Kenya Kwanza will drop further in Western.
“Ruto’s rating in Western won’t increase because he is going to give Central Kenya the deputy president position, any other position will not impress the Luyha community,” Mwale said.
Musalia offers Kenya Kwanza economic leadership credentials and inspires confidence within key stakeholders who include but are not limited to Kenyan business and corporate leaders
However, Kakamega Senator Cleopas Malala, a Mudavadi confidant, said the ANC leader has lined up more activities in the coming days to diminish Raila.
"Western has been Raila's stronghold but he is now doing 45 per cent down from 90 per cent. This is because of the Musalia and Wetang'ula impact," he said.
Musalia and his Kenya Kwanza will hold a major meeting at Mululu Stadium on Friday to reverse Raila's gains.
However, while Musalia’s political gravitas in Western is doubtful, analysts say his entry into the Ruto camp has given the DP a national image in his fight against Raila.
Nairobi-based risk political analyst Dismas Mokua said unlike before when Ruto was keeping the company of leaders without national credentials, the DP’s image has gained dramatically.
“Musalia offers Kenya Kwanza economic leadership credentials and inspires confidence within key stakeholders who include but are not limited to Kenyan business and corporate leaders,” Mokua said.
Mudavadi has no peers in terms of monetary and fiscal management in Azimio la Umoja, he said.
Osotsi said the fact that ANC and Ford Kenya lost seats in Bungoma and Vihiga counties in 2017 shows how "weak Musalia is."
"There was a silent agreement in Nasa that the two parties would exclusively field candidates in the two counties but they lost terribly, that shows how weak they are," he said.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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