MWAURA: The earthquake, aftermath and realignment of casualties

On January 23, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi unleashed a surprise political move in what was billed to be an earthquake by his handlers.

Earlier on Saturday, there was a flurry of activities about a pending meeting the following day. As various legislators, largely drawn from Mt Kenya region met in Karen, it became apparently clear something was up the ANC’s sleeves.

In what appeared to be scenes similar to Raila Odinga’s Kibaki Tosha declaration of 2002,  Mudavadi had invited Deputy President William Ruto to attend his party’s National Delegates Conference.

This led to a walk out in protest by  Kanu chairman Gideon Moi and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in the company of Jimi Wanjigi, an ODM presidential hopeful, whose party has refused to convene an NDC to settle the matter between him and party leader Raila.

Upon seeing DP Ruto’s allies arrival in groups of 10 MPs, the walk out protest by Kalonzo and Moi was well captured by the cameras. Interestingly, the duo had invited Raila in their NDCs and Mudavadi didn’t protest.

By that single political move, the One Kenya Alliance, as it were, was split into two and thus became obsolete. It was initially billed as the Third  Force and a holding ground for other presidential hopefuls not to team up with Ruto.

Initially, this seemed to work. What with the many meetings at State House in Nairobi and Mombasa?

A Kalonzo-Mudavadi ticket was in the offing. At some point, there were murmurs that the continued meetings of the Oka principals with President Uhuru Kenyatta were hurting. What with the perception that the outfit is a state house project?

The fact that Raila, who is being supported by Uhuru, was invited by both Moi and Kalonzo to attend their NDCs is a clear indicator that Oka was just a decoy in the grand scheme of things.

However, the same Kalonzo has come out publicly to declare that he cannot play second fiddle to Raila for the third time.  Kalonzo feels that in many ways, he is senior than both Ruto and Mudavadi.  Yet in politics, this doesn’t usually apply.

It’s possible to have a first time MP being more visible and influential than those that have served for longer years.  

Mudavadi’s speech at Bomas was the real earthquake. A very candid analysis of the state of Kenya’s economy, it gave a grim picture of how the state had been captured by entrenched personal interests to the detriment of each and everyone in society.

That a small clique of elites that felt entitled to state largesse and privilege had buttressed itself into the fulcrum of the state, and was busy scheming on how to ensure self-preservation, through schemes such as the amendment of the Constitution.  This group was taking other Kenyans for granted and that upon realisation of this fact, Mudavadi decided to have Kenyans tell each other the truth in what he dubbed, 'Tusidanganyane'.

The silence on social media following this latest development, that led to groans of loss on the part of Azimio followers clearly indicates the fact that they had already assumed Mudavadi would join their political alliance.

What is interesting is the fact that while the 2022 contest had been framed as that of the BBI versus the economic take off, it’s now abundantly clear the economic platform remains a critical aspect, if not the rallying call for the new political coalition of UDA, ANC and Ford Kenya.

The country is waiting for the Supreme Court appeal on the BBI and it remains to be seen if reggae will be back.  However, no matter the outcome of the  ruling, the political tectonics have since shifted and the ground has since responded accordingly. 

This shift has caused casualties on the part of several  Jubilee Party leaders such as Katoo ole Metito, Cate Waruguru, Gathoni wa Muchomba, David Gikaria, Kareke Mbiuki and Ali Wario. It has also led to the loss of employment for Njogu wa Njoroge, a popular radio and TV host for visiting Karen and declaring his interest in the Njoro parliamentary seat, yet he was working for Mediamax.

Everything has a price and it remains to be seen how the Kenya Kwanza Alliance will grow and who will join as the elections date gets closer.  

Kenya is at a crossroads and we have to make a choice since just like I predicted here, the next president shall have a very difficult task of reviving the economy.

He has only the first 18 months to do so before the country goes the Greece way. What with a borrowing of over Sh800 billion to finance recurrent expenditure, yet the local investor is crowded out since government has been borrowing over Sh900 billion from the domestic market?

Further, who will bell the cat on overflowing public debt way beyond the set ceiling of Sh9 trillion, yet our economy is barely Sh10 trillion and our current debt is Sh11.7 trillion?

This is the real national crisis of our times.