OTIATO: Kalonzo, Mudavadi are minor players in Uhuru succession

Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi are without question seasoned political players. In the national political matrix, they have been consequential in all elections since 2002.

However, in the recent past, these two politicians have been threatening Armageddon to anyone who doesn’t consider them as ‘weighty’ political players in national politics.

What’s more, considering there is a general understanding that the stars are aligning for a Raila Odinga presidency, Kalonzo and Mudavadi have expressed their dissatisfaction with the same.

But even as the two and their lieutenants go full throttle to attack the candidature of Raila, it can equally be said the foremost dissatisfaction from these two is the realisation Raila might be snowballing new political allies.

Now, this begs the question. Why would Raila be seeking new allies? Could it be that Kalonzo and Mudavadi are now political deadweights?

Kalonzo has been in the political limelight for roughly 37 years. Having been elected MP in 1985 and appointed assistant minister in 1986, he has served as Deputy Speaker, Kanu’s Organising Secretary and, most notably, Vice President of Kenya between 2008 and 2013.

On the other hand, Musalia Mudavadi joined active politics, not out of interest but due to circumstances. Ever wondered why many hold the view that he behaves like a prince par excellence?

It is because, as William Shakespeare would have said, greatness was thrust upon him. After the death of his father, Mudamba Mudavadi, the former President Moi picked up Musalia Mudavadi and not only made him a member of the National Assembly but also went further to make him a minister in the lucrative Ministry of Finance.

Thereafter, Mudavadi was kicked up the ladder when he was made Vice President to Moi and equally made to support Uhuru’s quest for the presidency in 2002.

But what makes these two players politically irrelevant in 2022?

Let’s start with Kalonzo. No one best captures the problem with Kalonzo than Daisy Maritim, in one of her opinion articles in the local dailies, when she concluded that Kalonzo suffers from ‘Acute Delusion Syndrome’.

For why would Kalonzo be threatening to contest in every election knowing all too well that he hardly secured a million votes when he last ran for the presidency?

With such delusions of grandeur and imagined supernatural political abilities, as Daisy would have said, is Kalonzo a serious player in the forthcoming election?

The same can be said of Mudavadi who appears to be suffering from some form of cognitive bias identified by psychologists as the Dunning-Kruger effect.

This is a bias where individuals with low abilities exaggerate their own abilities.

That Mudavadi thinks he can compete with the likes of Raila and Ruto yet greatness was thrust upon him is utterly shocking. If anything, the only way Mudavadi can become great is if he is made great.

Secondly, unlike Raila, who has the ability to reinvent himself, Kalonzo and Mudavadi seem to be stuck with their old selves and thus they have been unable to attract new political players in their regions.

As a result, they have lost huge support in their backyards as their traditional support and the new voters have been devoured by these new political players.

In the Ukambani region, for instance, Kalonzo’s support has been divided and shared amongst Alfred Mutua, Kivutha Kibwana and Charity Ngilu.

As of now, no Ukambani governor supports Kalonzo as much as these governors enjoy popular support in their counties.

This, therefore, means that Kalonzo’s support is inconsequential insofar as one has the support of the three Ukambani governors. Put differently, Kalonzo adds insignificant value to a candidate who doesn’t enjoy the support of a majority of the Ukambani governors.

That is the scenario in western Kenya where the situation is even tragic.

First, unlike Kalonzo, Mudavadi has never really been the king of Western politics. Mudavadi, being a prince, has been unable to command the Luhya community like Masinde Muliro and Kijana Wamalwa did.

Second, Mudavadi has also been unable to reinvent himself to remain politically relevant.

As a result, his assumed reign in Western has remained in the firm grip of Raila with emerging players like Wycliffe Oparanya, Eugene Wamalwa and Moses Wetang'ula gaining ground.

Over and above that, Cotu boss Francis Atwoli has since been appointed as the coordinator of Western with the majority of the region's leaders paying homage to him. Nationally, Mudavadi is only good for optics.

My unsolicited advice to Raila is that he should look for new partners. He should leave Mudavadi and Kalonzo to self-cannibalise if they, finally, make good their threat to contest for the presidency.

Political scientist. [email protected]

(Edited by V. Graham)