Raila ODM revamp signals 2027 plans

Raila has recently been to his Western Kenya turf leading membership drive in his Orange party, slightly over a year since the 2022 polls.

Coming weeks after the Opposition leader endorsed his two term running mate Kalonzo Musyoka before making hasty retreat, Raila's moves has now left his supporters into a state of confusion over his ultimate political game plan.

The ODM boss has been in the forefront in reenergising ODM through an aggressive party’s membership drive that has seen him in seven counties in one month.

The counties are Siaya, Migori, Homa Bay, Kisii, Kisumu and Nyamira.

Starting with his traditional bases is seen as a deliberate strategy to consolidate the region ahead of 2027 and stop President William Ruto’s penetration of the area.

The ODM boss launched the drive in Siaya and Homa Bay two weeks ago in a clear attempt to reinvigorate the party in a possible battle with Ruto who has been raiding his backyard.

For the first time, Raila's moves have thrown his supporters and confidants into a state of confusion.

Whereas some argue that it is Raila's strategy to be unpredictable and keeping rivals guessing, some of his foot soldiers are however adamant that the former Prime Minister will be on the ballot in 2027.

Raila is under intense pressure from his backyard to make a sixth stab at the presidency, but critics warn this will easily split the opposition as Kalonzo will obviously bolt out.

Apart from Kalonzo, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua is also seen as another Azimio luminary eyeing the coalition’s flag.

“We are in politics, as we focus on 2027, we must upscale our membership,” ODM nominated Senator Beatrice Ogola told the Star on Wednesday.

“Raila has never stopped vying, if Raila does not contest, then that is news, for me if Raila vies then that is no news.”

Homa Bay MP Peter Kaluma told the Star that ODM will have a presidential candidate in the 2027 polls, adding that the countrywide registration drive is part of the preparations.

“I can assure you that when it comes to 2027, ODM will have a presidential candidate and that candidate will be brought forward through the party’s structure, if he is Raila he will be our candidate,” Kaluma told the Star.

According to an itinerary released by ODM Director of Communications Philip Etale, the opposition leader will camp in Busia on Thursday where he will meet party delegates, hold a rally and launch ODM membership recruitment drive.

He will then move to Kakamega on Friday for similar events.

On Saturday, he will attend the funeral of Goldiver Omondi, former Senator and MCA for Kholera Ward in Matungu constituency, Kakamega county.

Just last week, the former Prime Minister summoned his troops to Nairobi to deliberate on how to grow the party’s numbers at the grassroots, as well as strengthen the outfit.

The meeting chaired by Raila was attended by all ODM governors, senators, National Executive Committee members as well as leaders of county assemblies.

All the 47 ODM chairpersons also attended the special Parliamentary Group meeting at Parkplace.

ODM National Treasurer Timothy Bosire said the party embarked on grassroots activation campaign in readiness for the 2027 polls.

The former Kitutu Masaba MP said Raila has a mission that he will pursue to the very end as long as God grants him good health.

"The former prime minister is determined to transform this country for good after years of mismanagement and ill leadership. We are laying the ground as a party for his grand march to State House in 2027," he said.

“We know that in the past, Raila has been robbed of victory despite winning by a landslide. This time around, he is returning home with the prize and we want to put everything in order early enough."

In an interview with the Star, governance expert Javas Bigambo however argues that  Raila’s recent moves have much to do with remaining politically relevant than 2027 contest.

“Reinvigorating his political bases and kick starting the membership drive is not primarily smoke signal for his possible running for 2027,” Bigambo said.

“He (Raila) does not want to be written off in the assumptions that he is on the edge of his competitive politics, he also wants to demonstrate that he still has war chest to face off with Ruto.”

In October, the Opposition chief hinted at backing Kalonzo to run against  Ruto in 2027. 

But in a surprise change of heart, Raila’s spokesperson Dennis Onyango days later clarified the opposition candidate will be named months before the 2027 contest.

The Star has established that the endorsement elicited sharp criticism within his camp forcing him to retreat.

“I expect him [Raila] to be wiser than those urging him to run, because those urging him to run are interested in their political survival and not a win at the national level,” Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi told the Star.

Mwangangi said Azimio must change their manner of doing things if they want to unseat Ruto in 2027. 

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo—another Kalonzo confidant—said both Raila and Kalonzo must stick together in 2027 or forget unseating Ruto.

“If Raila and Kalonzo will not go one direction, then they will hand Ruto a new term in office, if they go separate ways that is the end of them. They must work together,” Maanzo said on phone.

“Those misleading Raila should desist.”

The issue of Azimio flag-bearer is increasingly becoming a hot topic in the opposition coalition, with a number of key leaders openly taking sides four years to the elections.

Signalling their support for Kalonzo in 2027, ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya last month said Western region would be ready to stand with Kalonzo for supporting Raila.

“The people of Western love you because of your firm stand. You have stood with Raila all this time. If it reaches a time that you will need anything, we will stand with you," he said. 

“As Azimio leaders, we will stick together in 2027 until we form the government. We will not agree to be in opposition like we are now. Now they are eating but we are watching.”