Recently, Turkey and Syria were struck by a series of major earthquakes and aftershocks leading to massive loss of lives and property. According to the latest statistics, the death toll stood at 50,000, with massive destruction of property and infrastructure. With recovery efforts still ongoing, these statistics are expected to rise.
Once again, we have been awakened to the grim realities of nature and its inherent risks that live with us. We have been reminded that earthquakes should be expected events and even though we might not predict their coming and intensity with precision, they will certainly visit us from time to time. The essence of progressive learning and the importance of preparing for likely and unavoidable disasters have been brought to the fore.
Reviews done by experts agree that seismic risks in Kenya are significant and cannot be ignored. Geographically, Kenya bestrides the active East African Rift System, which extends from the Horn of Africa to Mozambique.
Monitoring of the rift has shown that its faults have been slowly widening over time, with adjoining plates gradually drifting apart. Consequently, Kenya and other nations bordering the Rift have been singled out as the most earthquake and volcanic-prone areas in the entire continent.
The quantum and possibility of seismic risks facing us are further affirmed by the frequency and intensity of earthquakes recorded in Kenya from 1900 to date. Kenya has experienced one major earthquake of magnitude 7.0, five strong earthquakes of magnitudes between 6.0 and 7.0, 33 moderate earthquakes of magnitudes between 5.0 and 6.0 and 167 light earthquakes of magnitudes between 4.0 and 5.0.
The most notable earthquake of 7.0 magnitude was experienced in Subukia Valley in 1928. Some damage was caused to huts and farms, but little more is recorded because development in the country was still at infancy. Nevertheless, these records underscore the fact that Kenya is seismologically active. Are we prepared?
Experts have often argued that earthquakes do not kill people, but buildings do. Recent research shows that more than 50 per cent of the buildings in Kenya are not seismically compliant. This means that they are not designed and built with earthquake considerations or are not able to resist recommended minimum earthquake forces.
Most of these uncompliant investments would collapse, turning to rabble and agents of death and destruction during earthquake events of moderate-strong-major magnitudes. This grave state of affairs must worry the government and its people.
There is therefore an urgent need for Kenya to re-evaluate and improve the safety of built facilities in light of our foreseen earthquake risks and related extreme consequences.
The government, in conjunction with engineers, architects, geologists, academia and other experts, is therefore urged to invest in safeguarding the people and their built assets against earthquakes by setting up data-driven and technological early warning systems and streamlining related disaster management and preparedness initiatives.
Particular leadership is required in setting up and operationalising national seismic monitoring centres, development of local up-to-date design and seismic standards as well as the enactment of regulations to ensure our buildings and infrastructure can be relied upon to protect us when such disasters come.
These standards and regulations must also provide guidance on the classification, evaluation, strengthening and retrofitting of existing non-compliant buildings and infrastructure to ensure they meet minimum seismic requirements.
Going forward, it is imperative that we constantly recognise that the lives of the people and the safety of their investments in times of crises are core to the resilience, development and stability of our nation.
Similar past and present disasters around us must act as a stark, yet constant reminder that such disasters will inevitably strike us in our own time. Like the wise who do not sleep awaiting their moment of shame, we must arise, focus and work in preparation for our own moment of reckoning.
Professional civil and structural engineer
