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Why adapting to climate change is a costly affair

Estimates indicate that reducing emissions will cost the country Sh2.2 trillion

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by GILBERT KOECH

Counties05 May 2025 - 12:32
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In Summary


  • The funds are also for putting in place mechanisms to avert and minimise loss and damage associated with climate change.
  • In 2016, Kenya ratified the Paris Agreement and submitted an ambitious NDC with a commitment to reduce emissions by 30 per cent against a business-as-usual scenario by 2030.

Carcass of livestock in Northern Kenya following past drought/FILE

Kenya’s bid to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change will cost the country Sh2.2 trillion.

This is according to the Nationally Determined Contribution, which was deposited with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on April 30.

“The estimated budget required for the implementation of the adaptation initiatives for the period 2031 to 2035 is $17.7 billion (Sh2.2 trillion),” Kenya says in its second NDC.

The funds are also for putting in place mechanisms to avert and minimise loss and damage associated with climate change.

In 2016, Kenya ratified the Paris Agreement and submitted an ambitious NDC with a commitment to reduce emissions by 30 per cent against a business-as-usual scenario by 2030.

The NDC increased mitigation commitment from 30 per cent in 2016 to 32 per cent by 2030.

The implementation cost of the updated NDC mitigation and adaptation was then estimated to cost $62 billion (Sh8 trillion) between 2020 and 2030.

“Subject to national circumstances, Kenya intends to bear 19 per cent of the adaptation cost from domestic resources, while the balance is subject to international support,” Kenya says in the latest NDC.

The country says 28 per cent of the NDC cost will be achieved through investments in projects designed to deliver mitigation and adaptation benefits.

However, these estimated resource requirements may change with circumstances.

NDCs embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

They are submitted every five years to the UNFCCC secretariat.

Under the Paris Agreement, each party is required to prepare, communicate and maintain the successive NDCs it intends to achieve.

The agreement, which Kenya is a party to, lists a series of commitments to limiting global warming.

Parties to the Paris agreement must pursue domestic mitigation measures with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.

Kenya is keen to address climate change as it erodes 3 to 5 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product annually through extreme weather events.

The country says it aims to catalyse economic resilience and sustainable economic growth through bold and ambitious climate action.

About 90 per cent of electricity supplied to Kenya's national grid is from renewable energy sources.

Geothermal energy is the leading renewable source of electricity in Kenya and accounts for nearly 45 per cent of the supply, followed by hydropower, wind, solar and biomass energy.

Despite the high percentage of renewable energy use and potential, the power sub-sector experiences technical and operational inefficiencies with high implications on the cost of electricity.

Kenya says that, subject to national circumstances, it will mobilise domestic resources to realise 20 per cent of the emission reductions.

The remaining 80 per cent will be achieved through a combination of international support, including finance, investments, technology development and transfer, and capacity building and participation in carbon markets.

The mitigation goal will be achieved by promoting and implementing key priority mitigation initiatives.

These include undertaking energy sector reforms aimed at universal access to, adequate, reliable and affordable energy services.

The aim is to increase renewable electricity generation in the national grid to 100 per cent by 2035.

Other initiatives include the adoption of clean and efficient energy use for the transport, industry, agriculture and domestic sectors including clean cooking.

Low-carbon, climate-resilient and efficient transportation systems that are gender-responsive will also be promoted.

This will be done through electrification, modal shifts, urban mass rapid transport systems and overall greening of the transport sector.

In agriculture, some of the measures that will be undertaken include drought risk management, incorporating drought early warning and preparedness.

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