Past record propelled Abdullahi to victory in Wajir, say analysts

Clan-based politics largely determine whether a candidate has a chance of either winning or losing an election in Northeastern. 

However, for the Wajir Governor-elect Ahmed Abdullahi Jiir, his victory in the August 9 election is a combination of several factors. 

Interviews by local political analysts reveal how the governor-elect's past record between 2013-17 might have been the key factor in wooing voters.

“As his competitors tried to sell agendas based on what they intended to do, if given a chance, Abdullahi outlined his past achievements,” Abdi Ali, a local political commentator, said.

Nine candidates vied for the Wajir governor seat that Abdullahi  won by 35,533 votes followed by Hassan Mohamed of Jubilee with 27,224 votes.

Ahmed Muktar got 21,859 votes, while Mohamed Elmi, who contested as an independent candidate, bagged 21,047 votes. Former senator Abdullahi Ali of UDM got 15,486 votes. 

Others were Ugaas Sheikh of ANC who got 8,086 votes, Warfa Mohamed bagged 2,234 votes, and outgoing Governor Mohamed Abdi garnered 521 votes, despite withdrawing from the race a week to election.

In terms of clan matrix, the Degodia, who are the majority, fielded five candidates, while the Ogaden had two candidates and the Ajuran had one.

The political analyst said the race was crowded with the populous Fai subclan of the Degodia who fielded four candidates, and also helped Abdullahi clinch the seat since they ended up sharing votes from their sub-clan.

“Unlike in 2017, when the Fai subclan was very much united and only fronted one candidate in the name of outgoing Governor Mohamed Abdi, this time round it was a different case. Their division and pulling apart only helped Jiir win the seat with ease,” Ali said.

The candidates from the sub-clan namely Hassan, Ugaas and Elmi shared 56,357 votes between them. 

Another political pundit Hassan Abdi said that Hassan, despite being the Degodia council of elders choice, lacked political sharpness.

“He had no direct contacts like Abdullahi who has the grassroots touch. That is why he could not get enough votes outside his backyard. He was a newcomer and had no meaningful backing from major Degodia sub-clans,” Abdi said.

During the Wajir gubernatorial debate, Abdullahi, who is from the Mantaan sub-clan which is predominant in Wajir West, urged his supporters not to be swayed by promises of politicians who have not been tried and tested.

The focus will now shift to the county assembly, where Abdullahi will likely want to influence who becomes the speaker.

 

(edited by Amol Awuor)

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