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Kenya confident of 5 million tourist visits by 2028

Tourist arrivals reached 1.95 million in 2023, a third consecutive yearly increase

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by ALFRED ONYANGO

Kenya04 April 2024 - 12:19
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In Summary


  • In the year 2023, inbound tourism earnings grew to Sh352.54 billion compared to Sh268.09 billion in 2022, indicating a 31.5 per cent growth.
  • The rate of growth in revenues is higher than the growth registered in inbound arrivals, an indication of higher per capita spending by arriving tourists.
Tourists arrive at Moi International Airport, Mombasa/

Kenya is optimistic of attracting a further three million tourists in the next five years as part of its 2028 vision, which targets at least five million visitors.

The projection is based on the latest sectorial annual performance report, which shows a year-on-year increase in arrivals and the growing sector revenues.

Tourist arrivals reached 1.95 million in 2023, a successive three-year rise since 2021 when the numbers stood at 870, 465.

The 2021 record was a 53 per cent increase from the previous year, 2020, which recorded 567,848 arrivals.

In 2022, there were 1.48 million arrivals, a 70 per cent increase from the preceding year.

“Inbound sector earnings are also a proving point that the country is well positioned for growth towards its set target,” the report reads.

In the year 2023, inbound tourism earnings grew to Sh352.54 billion compared to Sh268.09 billion in 2022, indicating a 31.5 per cent growth.

“Notably, the rate of growth in revenues is higher than the growth registered in inbound arrivals, an indication of higher per capita spending by arriving tourists.”

This is also attributed to the sustained weakening of the Kenya shilling against major global currencies in the period under review, and the effects of inflation locally and internationally.

Despite the increase in the number of visitors in 2023 as compared to 2022, the average per capita expenditure in US dollars decreased significantly.

Considering the average exchange rate for the US dollar in 2022 and 2023, which was Sh117.96 and Sh139.83 respectively, the average per capita expenditure in US dollars decreased from $1,531.72 in 2022 to $1,292.15 in 2023.

Per capita expenditure measures the standard of living in an economy, and in this case, it measures one for tourists by dividing their total expenditure by their total population.

This suggests that although more people visited in 2023 compared to 2022, they spent less on average during their visits.

“This is also on the back of the sustained depreciation of the Kenya shilling against the major currencies during the year,” the report reads in part.

“The country’s ability in general to almost gain pre-pandemic global recovery rates and achieve high levels of tourist satisfaction and engagement is a positive sign for the overall health and resilience of Kenya’s tourism industry.”

Regionally, Africa is also poised for a positive outlook according to the report.

Africa recovered 96 per cent to pre-Covid levels in 2023, with majority of the arrivals coming from the European markets.

The performance positioned Africa as one of the world’s fastest-recovering tourism markets, outpacing the Americas (87%) and Asia-Pacific (61%) in returning to pre-crisis visitor levels, as per the UNWTO Barometer data.

“Post Covid-19 travellers increasingly recognise Africa as an enchanting destination with its diverse cultures, breath-taking landscapes, and unique wildlife, the continent stands on the brink of a transformative opportunity,” the report says.

"Africa however needs to undergo a paradigm shift in the sector to fully capitalise on this potential."

Global international tourism arrivals are also expected to grow above pre-pandemic levels at two per cent, subject to Asia’s growth pace and economic and geopolitical negative risk.

Consistent with the UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, 67 per cent of tourism professionals foresee better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023.

However the positive growth could be subject the various impediments.

These include the economic instability characterised by the persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade, which could continue to impact transport and accommodation costs in 2024 leading to high cost of doing business.

Geopolitical concerns; conflict in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine war may also disrupt travel.

Nevertheless, increasing staff shortages in tourism businesses could make it difficult for the sector to cope with the high demand.

 

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