This they say is because of the continued weakening of the Kenyan Shilling against major world currencies, which will erode any gains made in easing food prices.
A weak shilling, they say will continue to increase the cost of imports for both raw material and finished goods, as the country remains a net importer.
The shilling has shed about 10 per cent of its value to the US dollar, the predominant global trading currency, since January when it was averaging 123.42.
It has lost about 18 per cent year-to-date.
Yesterday, the Central Bank of Kenya quoted the local currency at 135.83 units to a dollar with banks selling it to importers and traders at above Sh140.
“While we expect lower food prices as a result of the rains, the weak shilling will continue to exert pressure on imports," said Samuel Nyandemo, senior lecturer at the University of Nairobi’s department of economics and development studies.
The disruption in the global supply chain is also another factor, Nyandemo notes, saying the country is still going to experience economic hardship for a while.
A spot check by the Star yesterday showed market prices on key consumables has started to ease, pegged on increased supply, with traders hopeful of even lower prices in coming weeks.
A kilo of sukuma wiki, a common vegetable in Kenyan households, has dropped to an average Sh59 from Sh61.60 last month.
"With the rains, farmers are going to flood the market with more produces so we expect the prices to fall further," said Priscar Bosibori, a vegetable vendor in Umoja Estate.
A kilogramme of tomatoes has also slightly eased to an average Sh100 from Sh110 last month, while onions are at Sh132 from Sh135 in February.
A litre of milk is expected to drop, albeit by a small margin, from last month’s average of Sh61.
Other foods whose prices are expected to drop with the ongoing rains include cabbage, carrots, potatoes, and maize among others.
Nevertheless, high input and transport costs are seen as major factors constraining agricultural production.
“We also have the cost of electricity which keeps going up, the subsidised fertiliser is not that cheap as you may think and not all farmers have accessed it, so we should not expect a bumper harvest,” Nyandemo said.
The government is under pressure to bring down the cost of living with maize flour among key components, currently retailing at between Sh199 and Sh260, depending on the brand.
“The cost of living, while expected to remain high from the exchange rate pressures in an import dependent economy, would get a boost from the government flooding the market with cheap imported foodstuffs and better than expected rainfall,” data analysis Mihr Thakar told the Star.
National Treasury CS Njuguna Ndung'u in January warned Kenyans to brace themselves for a tough year, saying the country's financial crisis was deepening.
“There are clear signals that it is going to be a tough year,” Ndung’u said during a budget public hearing forum in Nairobi.
CBK has since trimmed this year’s GDP growth projection to 5.8 per cent, from a previously forecast 6.1 per cent.
"We scaled down agricultural growth which has brought down our projection for overall growth in 2023,” Njoroge notes.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics has tied the rise in inflation largely on increase in prices of commodities under food and non-alcoholic beverages (13.4%); and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (7.5%); and transport (12.6%) between March 2022 and March 2023.
