• Rice production is expected to stagnate due to delays in the expansion of Mwea irrigation schemes.
• Asian countries are expected to dominate exports to Kenya led by Pakistan, Thailand, China, India, and South Korea.
Kenya's food imports of corn, wheat, and rice are expected to increase in the coming financial year due to a widening local supply deficit, a report has said.
“Corn and wheat production are both expected to dip on account of the reduced planted area while rice production is projected to stagnate, due to delays in anticipated rehabilitation and expansion of the irrigation infrastructure,” the report by United States Department of Agriculture Service said.
While there is reduced production, USDA Foreign Agriculture Service Office in Nairobi noted that consumption of the three commodities is expected to continue increasing.
For instance, consumption of rice is expected to go up from 800 metric tonnes (MT) to 820 MT driven mainly by increasing household incomes, and urbanisation but production will stagnate due to delays in the expansion of irrigation schemes.
According to the report, new production from Mwea Irrigation Scheme - that produces about 80 per cent of Kenya’s rice is currently undergoing expansion and is likely to be completed in 2021.
“Overall Kenya’s rice sector will continue to be limited by lack of suitable land, and inadequate water,” USDA agricultural specialist Kennedy Gitonga said.
He noted that due to the above, Asian countries are expected to dominate exports to Kenya led by Pakistan, Thailand, China, India, and South Korea.
Within the first six months of the forecast period, the cost of rice in retail is expected to remain constant at between sh110 per kilo and Sh125 per kilo.
The report further notes that due to low morale among corn farmers caused by a marketing crisis, production of the cereal will dip from 4,050 MT to 3,600 MT.
It is also projected that corn harvesting area will reduce from 2,200 acres to 2,000 acres, as consumption moves up to by 50 MT to 4,700 by 2020.
Asian countries are expected to dominate exports to Kenya led by Pakistan, Thailand, China, India, and South Korea.USDA Foreign Agriculture Service
A bulk of the available corn for consumption is expected to come from Uganda and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa.
Corn production is also expected to be adversely impacted by the delay in the importation of the government's subsidised fertilisers.
In addition, some of the farmers have resorted to premature harvesting of their corn and converting it into silage for livestock.
While a dip in production is set to take centre stage during the season, USDA forecasts volatile corn prices in the first half of 2019/2020 due to a dysfunctional marketing system, cheaper sourcing of imports from the EAC countries, and the lapse of the government consumer subsidy programme.
The National Cereals and Produce Board has set the corn purchase at Sh2,500 per 90 kilograms For wheat, the US agency foresees a reduction in wheat planted areas as farmers shift to other more competitive enterprises such as barley, horticulture, dairy, sorghum, and pyrethrum.
This will see areas of harvest reduce from 170 acres to 160 acres hence imports are expected to rise by 200 MT to 2,400 MT in the coming financial year.
The 110 Mt rise in consumption from 2570 is expected to be imported from Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine.