AJUOK: How naïve ODM leaders created instant Sifuna wave making him champion

One day in politics is a long time, so they say. Thus, two weeks can amount to ages. Just two weeks ago, Nairobi senator and ODM secretary-general, Edwin Sifuna, was an embattled party official, rejecting cooperating with the UDA government.

Nearly every meeting called by the party’s top organs put removing ‘unruly’ Sifuna’ atop the agenda. But no one had the guts to pull the trigger until the party’s National Executive Committee met in Mombasa on Wednesday, February 11.

After a long day of reportedly stormy deliberations, the NEC announced they had removed him as SG with immediate effect. My first thoughts were just how naïve the new band of ODM leaders could be.

It confirmed that former ODM boss Raila Odinga had in life been surrounded by political lightweights without the mental and intellectual resilience to read the room and make strategic decisions.

In every sense, there was never anything wrong with the ODM in the immediate post-Raila period. SG Sifuna, even when Raila lived, had declined to join the broad-based bandwagon in the party.

The former Prime Minister appeared unbothered by his resistance. In fact, there was a point when one could say he encouraged the existence of two competing party factions to keep his options open.

Upon Raila’s death, one would have thought the new leadership would adopt the Raila template of letting the anti-government faction be. But it seems pressure from President William Ruto was brought to bear on them.

Word on the street is that the President wanted ODM to crank up the pro-government rhetoric and also to remove the rebellious SG. In the absence of Raila, there was no one with enough influence in the party who could call everyone to order and prevail on everyone to take a step back.

Ahead of the NEC meeting, many personalities in ODM or associated with it, including party trustees and Raila’s widow, Ida Odinga, had gone out of their way to bring the competing interests to the negotiating table.

However, the faction that wanted Sifuna removed, and appeared to enjoy greater access to the corridors of power, seemed to have decided that, regardless of the consequences, they had to pull the trigger.

Days after this “removal” of Sifuna as SG, and despite filing a case at the Political Parties’ Dispute Tribunal, Sifuna held a huge rally in Kitengela on Sunday, February 15, followed by another triumphal one in Kakamega on Saturday.

Instead of the humiliation and rejection the ODM NEC had intended to serve its belligerent SG, they delivered him into the warm embrace of adoring crowds of young people. He got the sympathy that was due to him.

In the first post-Raila ODM Central Committee meeting, there was a semblance of order and a centrist atmosphere among the leaders. Indeed, the communique read later by Sifuna indicated that the powerful party organ had resolved to maintain the status quo of working with the broad-based government until 2027.

For all intents and purposes, the compromise seemed to be based on acknowledging that Raila may have supported the broad-based government, but had not yet endorsed Ruto for a second term.

In all the months that the Nairobi senator has opposed the choir seeking a second term for Ruto, it has been widely understood that his role as ODM SG had sort of toned down whatever radical things he may have wanted to say about the matter.

His party position was an acknowledged safety net: allowing him to hold a divergent opinion, while not going all out in a manner that would destroy the party. Yet, in one strange moment lacking wisdom, the party’s NEC, by announcing his removal, threw him, like a fish, into water.

Sifuna is considered abrasive, even arrogant, in some quarters. I have heard someone describe his delivery style as a “difficult cactus to hug”. But in one move, the NEC bestowed on him the enviable sympathy tag that every politician loves. Kenyans love victims.

The politicians who have been detained, tortured by the regime, sent into exile or generally persecuted tend to appeal to the humanitarian sense of the masses. They love a martyr.

But those opposed to Sifuna’s rise didn’t stop there. Nearly all his three rallies - in Busia, Kitengela and Kakamega - were either besieged by opposing goons or disrupted by police tear gas. At face value, it is easy to conclude that neither the regime nor the ODM faction supporting President Ruto was prepared for Sifuna taking his case to the people and becoming such a national sensation. The reaction has been disjointed and plain stupid.

I feel sorry for ODM leader Oburu Oginga. Left alone to make his own decisions, he probably would have chosen the Raila path of letting dissenters stay in the party.

But it is clear that he is under pressure from his faction of the party to fast-track the cooperation agreement between ODM and UDA, which pushes him to ignore any operational or legal obstacles in the way. The removal of the SG was met by a stay order by the court.

Perhaps even the National Delegates Congress , his faction called for next month, might be injuncted in due course. While that is going on, it is now obvious that the refrain, “Sifuna is not bigger than the party,” has been shredded to little pieces.

In appealing to a multi-ethnic constituency across the party, Sifuna has come out as a darling of a sizeable population way beyond the traditional ODM bases. I don’t know if the centrist party officials and trustees who had been burning the midnight oil seeking reconciliation within the party are still at it, but clearly, Sifuna, if he chooses to listen to any unity talk, will do it from a position of strength.

I’ve heard people ask, “To what end is his removal?” I wonder if anyone involved in this new movement - chiefly Sifuna himself, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, and ODM “rebels” such as deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi ¾ have even had time to process the events as they happen quite fast.

Between the NEC action and the Kakamega rally, everything has moved quite fast. I am certain the whole team will soon take a break to just internalise everything that has happened in such a short time.

But I am sure that in the interim period, the momentum of the outpouring of support, if it translates to registration of these masses as voters, and is sustained into 2027, will become a key factor in next year’s elections.

The Sifuna support is made up largely of young, Gen Z, some of whom shook the foundations of the nation with their protests in June 2024 and its subsequent commemoration in June last year. Their support is not transferable, so it will be a challenge if they want Sifuna to go for the presidency and the Nairobi senator isn’t ready yet, or wants to support someone else.

Interestingly, this is a conversation we should never have been having, if the new ODM leadership had let the status quo ride on until the next campaign season.

In the hurry to conform to the President’s wishes, they may have fatally destroyed their own party and created the exact scenario that party trustees and reconciliation leaders feared: the possibility of most members following the SG wherever he decides to go.

Which also means that soon, Ruto may discover he is negotiating with a mere shell of ODM in the form of the Linda Ground faction. Interesting times lie ahead.