The unprecedented rebellion from the youth and a discontented Deputy President appears to put President William Ruto between a rock and a hard place.
However, it is the confrontation with a youth-led movement that poses what many consider to be Ruto’s biggest challenge, one that has never been witnessed in Kenya since independence in 1963.
Violent demonstrations rocked 35 of the country's 47 counties on Tuesday as protesters expressed their rage against punitive taxes contained in the Finance Bill, 2024.
Waving placards and chanting anti-government slogans, youthful protesters took over the streets in major towns and cities across the country.
The President’s backyard was not spared.
Thousands stormed major towns in his Rift Valley turf as businesses came to a standstill in Nakuru, Kericho and Bomet, alongside several towns.
The demonstrations were a big contrast to previous anti-government protests, which the region gave a wide berth as it was considered the political bedrock of Ruto’s administration.
And at the height of deadly protests, the perceived strained relationship between Rigathi Gachagua and Ruto played out again.
Gachagua has clashed with some of the President’s close allies who have accused him of sabotaging the government.
He has maintained that people who hang around the President “because of his friends” were creating a wedge between him and his boss.
On Wednesday the DP pledged to fearlessly speak the truth, stressing that he was elected by Kenyans like Ruto, and questioned government policies such as demolishing houses along Nairobi River.
He urged the President to compensate families affected by Tuesday’s protests and cover hospital bills for those injured nationwide.
He further said the National Intelligence Service failed to adequately inform the President about the widespread opposition to the Finance Bill, 2024 and called for the resignation of Director General Noordin Haji
Luanda MP Dickson Maungu believes the President has little room to manoeuvre in his challenging situation, saying he already has his goose cooked.
“It is a little too late for the President. Why did he wait for chaos to erupt in all corners of the country and people to die for him to concede,” he said.
The Azimio lawmaker believes the head of state is also running out of time to remedy his strained relationship with Gachagua.
“Mt Kenya voters are no longer with the President, which is a good thing for us in Azimio. That voting bloc is steadily slipping off the President’s hand,” he said.
The region voted 87 per cent in favour of Ruto, which translates to 47 per cent of the total vote.
Political analyst Fred Sasia says that the President's swift transformation from a beloved figure to one of the most criticised individuals in the country is a development that has captured the attention of many.
“During his campaign, he endeared himself to voters by vowing not to let his deputy suffer as he did and by promising to create a government that catered to the less privileged. However, these commitments now seem to have been disregarded, leading to widespread disappointment among Kenyans,” Sasia said.
He said the head of state's early fallout with his deputy has been particularly striking and has become increasingly apparent to the public.
“Contrary to his campaign promises, President Ruto has seemingly allowed and even empowered young parliamentarians to launch attacks against his deputy,” he added.
The political analyst said that ruling party's MPs are finding it increasingly difficult to address their constituents, reflecting a deepening crisis of confidence and legitimacy in the government.
Political commentator Joseph Mutua says that the President is not sitting pretty indeed.
He said Ruto is crafting a strategy of tackling the twin problems of a youth revolt and a strained relationship with his deputy.
“The question in the lips of a cross-section of Kenyans seems to be: is he going to overcome the two challenges? If not, what will happen."
Mutua added that the President must find ways of getting money to fund some government projects other than raising taxes.
“The government does not have the money of its own. The President may be forced to cut certain expenditures like travel to raise money for his programmes,” he said.
Protests against Ruto’s tax proposals have been ongoing for days but escalated on Tuesday as MPs passed the amended Bill.
The President has argued that the raft of new taxes is essential to control public debt.
The debt amounted to Sh10.54 trillion as of April, comprising external debt of Sh5.2 trillion and domestic debt of Sh5.3 trillion, with interest payments estimated at more than Sh1 trillion in the 2024-25 fiscal year.
Sasia warned that one of the most politically risky moves for the President could be changing his deputy for the second term.
“The fallout is likely to have significant repercussions in the 2027 elections. The Mount Kenya region, which played a crucial role in his previous electoral success, is now expressing discontent. Many in the region feel betrayed by the President's actions, particularly regarding the perceived mistreatment of Gachagua, who hails from their area,” he said.
Mutua said Ruto is likely to turn a deaf ear to anybody advising him to drop Gachagua and pick another leader from Mt Kenya to replace him as his running mate in 2027.
“He knows that he got the majority of votes from this region that catapulted him to the seat of power. So, the last thing he would do is to annoy this region,” he said.
He said the DP has so far proved he is a force to reckon with.
“You cannot wish him away. He is enjoying the support of the majority of the people of the Mountain. This is because he is ably articulating their interests and aspirations,” Mutua said.
Leaders from Mt Kenya region, with Gachagua in the lead, have been rooting for the distribution of revenue through the 'one man-one vote-one shilling allocation'.
They have been insisting that the allocation of resources should be based on population.
Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are some of the heavily populated counties.
Azimio leader Raila Odinga has also waded into the controversy surrounding the push, saying it is the right way to go.
In May, Gachagua expressed willingness to work with the retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.
"Uhuru Kenyatta is our son, he should come so that we unite, is that okay? Do you have a problem with him? The election period is over,” he told a rally in Kirinyaga.
He is reaching out to Uhuru for support, saying he regrets his disparaging words and actions.
In the last days of his presidency, the former president urged his community to back Raila's bid, saying he had the best interests for the region.
Uhuru, in an apparent reference to Ruto, said he will have no problem supporting him in future “if he reforms.”
Sasia said that the President is facing significant challenges to his authority and popularity, a situation he must tactically address.
“The growing discontent and loss of legitimacy could have far-reaching implications for his administration. As the 2027 election approaches, the President will need to address these issues urgently to restore trust and stability in his leadership,” he said.