What had started last week as protests led by the so-called Gen Z across the country, hit an unprecedented crescendo this Tuesday when protesters, for the first time in the Kenya’s history, raided Parliament Building and stamped their chaotic authority on the hallowed grounds. With it came deaths, injuries and a shocking spectacle that will be etched in the memory of Kenyans for a long time.
In response, in a live speech to the nation, President Ruto responded by terming the demonstrators “criminals” and their actions “treasonous”. For once, I had expected the head of state to acknowledge the magnitude of what was going on, and don statesman’s garb, before moving to meet the demonstrators somewhere in the middle.
Because in all honesty, we have never seen something like it.
From the outset, it is important to state that what started as protests against the Finance Bill 2024 morphed into anti-Ruto demos, with youths largely chanting “Ruto Must Go” throughout the protests.
And the demos were widespread, including in what should have been the President’s “safe zones” such as Eldoret and Kericho. More importantly, if they earlier appeared to be coordinated and owned by the younger generation, now aptly christened “Gen Z”, the progression of protests has seen more and more Kenyans of diverse ages and backgrounds come on board.
This is well-illustrated by CNN’s frontline coverage of the teargassing of former US President Barack Obama’s sister, Auma, on the streets of Nairobi during the demos.
As with all these things, my first reaction was, “Where was the Intelligence Service?”
Was it possible that something this monumental would find them flat- footed? Indeed, for me, the more disturbing prospect is that it is possible that the intelligence bosses did their part and alerted the commander in chief of trouble ahead, but were ignored. This latter scenario would then mean that as suspected, Ruto surrounds himself with “homeboys” who occupy the space meant for professionals, and shut out the voices that should help the President to govern.
However, intelligence failures pale in comparison to the obvious detachment from the reality by both Ruto and his close advisers. The anger within the nation is not based purely on increased taxes, but the perception that these taxes go to literally fatten his cronies and well-connected tender merchants among hidden kinsmen. Social media is awash with memes of expensive watches, shoes and other pricey paraphernalia worn by people perceived to be close to Ruto. Such luxuries are presumed to be the proceeds of state largesse.
To make it worse, even as presidential friends like Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi walk around with huge wads of bank notes in harambees, showcasing the return of Moi era village-hero brand of politics, there are concerns about possible budgeted corruption. It’s rumoured to be hidden in such items as renovations of State House and the DP’s residence, as well as the office of the First Lady.
To add salt to injury, Kenyans wake up every few days to another foreign trip by the President, in which more luxury is splashed out. The President is his own worst enemy, because, given his long years in government, and knowledge of the political dynamics that sustain statecraft, you would expect him to ending these perceptions by arresting unnecessary state expenditure.
But now that we are here, the President would better be informed that the kind of energy and spirit it takes to rise up against a regime, like the new generation of protesters has embraced, does not go away without drastic action, big enough to be of value.
Ruto has declined to sign the Finance Bill 2024 into law, and sent it back to Parliament. Details of what areas he wanted tweaked were unavailable. However, I doubt that this would be enough after as he had allowed the dispute to go so far.
Ordinarily, if Ruto was a man who took advice, especially from a humble newspaper columnist, I would remind him that budding revolutions are confronted by huge concessions. To give the protesting citizens something to bite on as he buys time, he needs to unleash an action as heavy as dissolving his entire cabinet and the top echelons of the civil service.
This way, he can go to the people and tell them he acknowledges that mistakes have been made from bad advice he had been getting, and that he is now willing to make a fresh start. In a subsequent, more competent cabinet, he can even throw three cabinet slots at the angry Gen Z voters.
I don’t think empty promises will pacify the young citizens. At any rate, the problem with the President is that he has told so many lies that the belief per capita in any room in this country, about what he says, is firmly grounded at zero. Besides, some of his past actions, for instance, bulldozing the Housing Levy through despite widespread anger from the masses, paints him as a person with whom one cannot make a covenant, especially one that revolves around taxation. Effectively, the head of state is in a “cash-only” zone when dealing with countrymen, where a “post-dated cheque” isn’t acceptable.
The government has indicated it will deploy the military to arrest the rising tide of angry protests. Officially, the intention is to help the police maintain law and order. The reality, of course, is that for the first time in decades, protests have been going on simultaneously in every major urban centre in the country, which has stretched the police thin.
Obviously, deploying the military on the streets of the capital in peace time is also a statement that the police are overwhelmed and civil authorities are on edge.
But in my view, this is another gaffe by the Ruto regime. In fact, let me be clear that whereas the police enthusiastically unleash violence on civilian populations, the military won’t do the same. When serving in joint task forces with the police, the KDF will actually stop the police from doing that. Military indoctrination shuns politics and political partisanship, so their idea of maintaining law and order will not include shooting young protesters at the gates of Parliament.
Previous uprisings in many countries have indeed shown the people’s love for the military, which, in some cases, gets into the heads of the soldiers and they proceed to take power. It’s a long way from that in a stable democracy like Kenya, but it would be really interesting if Kenyan troops storm the streets, are met with jubilant flag-waving masses, who demand they stay for the long haul.
It looks to me that the Ruto regime, operating on an ad-hoc basis, never gives a thought to the long-term scenario in whatever they do, which then means that short-termism is the norm in the government. A more competent team of advisers would by now have let the President know his anger in the streets can only be assuaged by listening to the demands of the people and making concessions. That is, while they still have time to do so.
Political commentator