- Mudavadi’s proactive stance seeks to safeguard the nation against potential future challenges.
- By laying down clear principles and guidelines in a sessional paper, Kenya can establish a solid foundation for its foreign policy.
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Foreign policy and national security are mutually reinforcing. Foreign policy strategies are often designed with national security objectives in mind, and the success of national security efforts frequently depends on the effectiveness of foreign policy. The two are inextricably linked, with each playing a vital role in ensuring a country's safety and prosperity on the global stage. Poor foreign policy has caused various countries far-reaching and devastating consequences for their national security, leading to national instability, economic hardship, and even conflict.
On 15 May, addressing the Departmental Committee on Defence, Intelligence, and Foreign Relations of the National Assembly, Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Musalia Mudavadi said, "I will be seeking the support of this committee for a serious dialogue with Parliament, so that our foreign policy is not just that of the executive of the day. We are working on a sessional paper to establish fundamental principles in Kenya’s foreign policy, allowing the executive to focus on operational issues."
Kenya’s foreign policy currently operates without the support of a comprehensive legal framework, leaving it vulnerable to potential instability. Recognizing this gap, Mudavadi has been actively pushing for the establishment of a robust legal foundation for Kenya’s foreign policy. He advocates for anchoring this framework in a sessional paper to be ratified by Parliament.
The urgency for such a structured approach is underscored by the tumultuous situations witnessed in countries like Venezuela, Iraq, Zimbabwe, and Libya. These nations have grappled with severe instability stemming from poorly formulated or inadequately structured foreign policies. By learning from the experiences of these nations, Kenya can proactively mitigate similar risks.
While Kenya has not yet encountered major crises resulting from its foreign policy approach, Mudavadi’s proactive stance seeks to safeguard the nation against potential future challenges. By laying down clear principles and guidelines in a sessional paper, Kenya can establish a solid foundation for its foreign policy, ensuring coherence, effectiveness, and resilience in the face of evolving global dynamics.
Foreign policy can significantly affect monetary fluctuations in a country. Mudavadi mentioned to the parliamentary committee that Kenya runs this risk, with recent fluctuations, especially the depreciation against the dollar, being a serious example. The trade war between the US and China led to significant fluctuations in the Chinese yuan and the US dollar. Tariffs and retaliatory measures created uncertainty, affecting currency markets and leading to periods of depreciation and appreciation for both currencies. These are nations with economies much larger and more advanced than Kenya’s.
Following the annexation of Crimea and subsequent Western sanctions, the Russian rouble experienced substantial depreciation. The sanctions restricted Russia’s access to international markets and foreign capital, leading to economic contraction and currency devaluation. The uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union caused significant volatility in the British pound.
Foreign policy decisions related to Brexit negotiations directly impacted investor confidence and currency stability. Poor foreign policy and economic management led to Argentina’s debt crisis, resulting in a loss of investor confidence and severe depreciation of the Argentine peso. Efforts to secure international loans and restructure debt were crucial in attempts to stabilise the currency.
Venezuela, under Chávez and Maduro, pursued foreign policies that alienated Western nations, formed alliances with countries like Iran and Russia, and neglected regional diplomatic relations, all without a strategic or legal framework. These policies exacerbated Venezuela’s economic decline, leading to hyperinflation, severe shortages of basic goods, and a humanitarian crisis. Consequently, Venezuela’s international standing deteriorated, and internal security challenges worsened.
Mugabe’s foreign policies, including the seizure of white-owned farms and confrontational stance towards Western nations, were not based on a coherent strategic framework or legal basis. These dogmas led to economic collapse, hyperinflation, and international isolation. Zimbabwe’s agricultural output plummeted, causing widespread famine and unemployment. The country’s currency became virtually worthless, and political repression increased. An elaborate foreign policy would have been a buffer for Zimbabwe.
Gaddafi’s erratic foreign policies, including support for various militant groups and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, were not grounded in any coherent national strategy or legal framework. These actions led to Libya’s international isolation, economic sanctions, and eventually, NATO’s military intervention in 2011, which resulted in Gaddafi’s overthrow and death, creating a power vacuum that plunged Libya into ongoing civil conflict and instability.
Kenya’s President William Ruto is a stickler for the rule of law, and this must be the basis of the current government’s approach to ensuring that a legal framework is developed to augment the executive’s approach to foreign policy and relations. Mudavadi initiated the process of reviewing the 2014 foreign policy, which had stalled during the previous administration, as he strongly holds that it is not intuitive to the ever-evolving diplomatic space and international relations. Since October last year, immediately after his additional mandate as Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Cabinet Secretary, Mudavadi began the process of seeking to incorporate the open government approach in the document.
Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei recently confirmed on X that the document is currently under review and that public participation will be undertaken where “the it will be subjected to comprehensive public debate before it is approved by the cabinet and tabled before the national assembly.” The last reviewed document never underwent public participation and remained an executive document. Public participation will ensure that when Kenya pronounces itself on a global issue, for instance, it reflects a shared position.
Mudavadi highlighted to Parliament the risk posed by underfunding of the Foreign Ministry, particularly now that Kenya is considered an anchor nation. He emphasized potential security and espionage concerns stemming from this situation. Mudavadi also pointed out the correlation between well-supported diplomatic missions abroad and increased remittances to Kenya from the diaspora, which also bolsters the strength of the national currency. Consequently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs appealed to Parliament for support in the 2024/2025 budget to adequately fund these missions, especially considering Kenya's sponsorship of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's candidacy for the African Union Commission chair, which necessitates substantial financial resources.
Political commentator