It is amusing to watch the goings-on in the Mt Kenya region and, specifically, within the House of Mumbi. Two years ago, the community rejected one of their own who was sitting in office as president simply because he dared dared throw his support behind ODM leader Raila Amolo Odinga.
While it’s for another day to analyse what support, if any, former President Uhuru Kenyatta gave to Raila, and how ineffective that was, resulting in the swearing-in of President William Samoei Ruto, it is enough to say Uhuru was insulted, humiliated and shunned by his own community for simply supporting Raila.
Considerable discourse has revolved around the reasons for hatred of Raila in the Mt Kenya region. The fact that a significant majority of the voters there embraced someone for president, someone who, only a few years back, was equally hated, underscores the fluidity of public sentiment. However, it's important to note that this individual was less hated than Raila.
As someone who spent over three months at home during the 2022 campaign, primarily in Mt Kenya, I had the unique opportunity to witness or be privy to events that greatly contributed to Raila not being president today, beyond the community's disdain for him.
Much as the hatred persisted and a factored in the loss, however, Raila also made significant inroads in the region toward reaching his dream of becoming president, especially after he selected Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua as his running mate.
The selection brought new excitement to the Azimio campaign that nearly delivered victory for the coalition, but other forces were too powerful to overcome, or there was just not enough foresight to even try.
Barely a year into Ruto’s presidency, folks at the House of the Mountain are having buyer’s remorse. Anyone who knew Ruto and how he has risen to the presidency would have told them he played them like a guitar. So much so that one could not help but laugh when hearing people from the region crying for Raila to do something, which he started doing, and just like that, the AU position was dangled, and that was the end of that.
Were Raila to put his warrior fighter hat on and take on Ruto and Kenya Kwanza, a revolution would take place in Kenya rivalling that of Independence because things are that dire, and the mood couldn’t be more receptive.
But that won’t happen because Raila, with the help of Ruto, is busy trying to become AU chairman, and that’s all but a foregone conclusion.
It is a win-win for the two leaders: Ruto gets rid of someone who can make his remaining time in office shorter, Raila gets to become AU Chairman — or President of Africa, as this is likely to be spun, much to the excitement of most of his supporters. I am deliberate in saying “most” of his supporters because many would rather have Raila leading demonstrations to bring Ruto’s government down — or at least make it responsive to their needs.
This raises an interesting and intriguing question: will Raila help or punish Mt. Kenya in the days, weeks, and months ahead and before the next election? This in turn begs another question, will Raila be more effective in helping or punishing Mt Kenya?
The easiest thing for any politician to do is to exact revenge in a way that is more painful to his opponents or enemies. While it is said that Raila had more than 2.6 million votes from Mt Kenya, it is also true that more voters refused to vote for him for a combination of reasons that some regret now. To be sure, there are those who to their death will not regret having voted No to Raila and would do so again.
If Raila were a vindictive person, he would rally behind Ruto and make the Mt Kenya region irrelevant in Kenyan politics for decades to come.
However, knowing Raila, he might play it safe, get the AU chairmanship, and come back roaring to the point the tables will be turned on Ruto to do as Raila wishes, or he is finished.
