The past week witnessed Kalonzo Musyoka’s followers and strategy teams scrambling as they sought to 'occupy' the space left by Raila as he announced he would seek Chairmanship of the African Union Commission. Kalonzo has always lingered on the fringes, waiting to inherit Raila Odinga’s support base. "Kalonzo takes over" became a common refrain in communications from Kalonzo's activities in various areas he visited in the last week, sounding almost myopic and desperate.
Raila made five fruitless attempts to become president of Kenya. His first bid was in 1997 under his National Development Party, emerging third behind the former Presidents Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki [both deceased]. Despite this, Raila gained political clout and much-needed experience for the years that followed.
Raila has undeniably been a political colossus in Kenya, influencing the country’s political landscape for about three decades. From his days as a prominent opposition figure to his role in coalition politics and multiple presidential bids, his political journey has been characterised by resilience, charisma, and a deep commitment to democratic ideals.
The most significant challenge in filling Raila's shoes lies in the sheer magnitude of his persona and the depth of his influence. Over the years, Raila has become synonymous with the opposition movement in Kenya, his name virtually synonymous with the struggle for political reform and social justice. Any individual seeking to step into his role must contend not only with the expectations of the electorate but also with the weight of Raila's formidable legacy.
Furthermore, Raila's role as the de facto leader of the opposition has been solidified by his involvement in key political coalitions and alliances, such as the National Super Alliance (Nasa). His ability to forge strategic partnerships with other opposition figures and parties has further bolstered his position as the preeminent opposition leader in Kenya. While Kalonzo has been part of these coalitions, he has often played a secondary role, raising questions about his capacity to unite disparate opposition factions behind a common agenda.
Kalonzo’s role in Kenyan politics has been peripheral. He has never been a national leader; in fact, his time as a minister in the Kenya African National Union ruling regime led by President Moi was probably the highest and most promising time of his political career. One of Raila's defining characteristics is his ability to mobilise support across ethnic and regional divides. As the son of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, a prominent figure in Kenya's struggle for independence, Raila inherited a legacy of political activism and grassroots mobilisation. Throughout his career, he has cultivated a broad-based support network, appealing to voters from diverse backgrounds with promises of reform and progressive change.
After Kalonzo and Raila fell out as Kenya headed to the 2007 presidential elections, Kalonzo essentially became the de facto political leader of Ukambani, but not beyond. Sadly, he has never recovered since. It is a formidable situation worsened by today's politics where political class support comes at a great cost, leading to money being a major factor. While Raila had politicians bankrolling him to ride on his support, for Kalonzo, this can only happen in Ukambani and not beyond. It is questionable whether Kalonzo has a war chest adequate to sustain a presidential campaign and activities even before that. Mostly, when politicians are asked this war chest question, the answer is negative.
Raila has been a vocal advocate for electoral reform, transparency, and accountability, challenging the status quo and demanding greater accountability from Kenya's political elite. His efforts to promote good governance and fight against corruption have earned him a reputation as a 'principled leader willing to speak truth to power'. This is not an easy domain for Kalonzo to adopt because he came right from inside Kanu, which was considered a redundant party out of touch with the needs of Kenyans. Raila found it easier to mobilise against the status quo because he came from outside government. This is not an easy coat for Kalonzo to shed.
Raila's political career has not been without controversy. His detractors accuse him of being opportunistic and power-hungry, pointing to his willingness to form alliances with former adversaries and his perceived role in stoking ethnic tensions for political gain. Additionally, his multiple unsuccessful bids for the presidency have led some to question his ability to effectively lead the country. Kalonzo has also been in the cold for a long time now – more than10 years, and he has lost the lustre that would give people any hope of transformation from him.
Can Kalonzo be a unifying force for the opposition? This is not an easy question for Kalonzo himself to answer because the opposition has never been seamlessly united. In the last elections, they had to draft Martha Karua to be Raila’s running mate because the opposition was not yet politically united. They were only united by the possibility of taking power after Uhuru, and they had not developed a national force with enough ground soldiers across the country. This is an aspect that William Ruto cracked and came out victorious. Kalonzo is a much weaker leader than Raila in grassroots mobilization, and the chances are greater that he will fail.
It is more or less clear now that Raila will never ascend to the presidency in Kenya – if there were any doubters after his five failures. There is an assumption among Kalonzo supporters that he could be a better candidate for the opposition than Raila Odinga, who was seen as controversial and as one splitting the country down the middle whenever he contested. However, Raila won the 2007 election and was rigged out, we all know. The surgical analysis here is that Raila did not know how to take power, making him less power-smart than Ruto. It is not a subject to debate if Kalonzo knows how he could take power. Set aside that, it is Herculean for Kalonzo to bring the opposition together or to mobilise any strong grassroots support across the voter baskets of Kenya, going with fewer than three years to the 2027 presidential elections.
The writer is a political commentator