A recent encounter at a café in Nairobi’s Central Business District sparked my interest when an elder stated, "Azimio is heading nowhere because none of its prominent figures will concede to step down for another." While it sounded as ordinary political talk, this remark prompted me to make a historical exploration, and it sure has a substantive basis.
Indeed, Azimio epitomises egocentrism in Kenyan politics, because the main debate is always about who gets to fly the opposition ticket. With Raila’s candidacy dominating the opposition since 2013, there has always been a suppressed opposition to him.
The narrative has consistently and perennially revolved around Raila, but he cleverly sidelined Kalonzo through strategic manoeuvres, outsmarting him over the decades. The forthcoming 2024 elections, which the opposition discusses more than anything else, are anticipated to unfold similarly as Kalonzo’s own political weaknesses and Raila continue to obscure the former’s presidential aspirations yet again.
While initially part of the Orange Democratic Movement, Ruto’s collaboration with Raila was brief. Post the tumultuous 2007/8 Kenyan elections, William Ruto embarked on a distinctive political trajectory. Ruto’s astute perception must have been that Raila's domain would always be inherently centred around himself. Ruto avoided the fate where Raila monopolised opposition candidacy for over 15 years. It has always been about who gets to deputize Raila, but in 2022 Ruto shifted the discourse to be about the welfare of Kenyans.
Kalonzo Musyoka appears ensconced in a bubble, assuming he can assert influence nationwide if he becomes the opposition candidate for 2027. "Giving up my presidential ambition (for Raila) will mean I go home. It's as simple as that. Giving up my presidential ambition is not an option. The country is saying so, and this time, he (William Ruto) better be ready. The country is seeing it; the stars are aligned.", Kalonzo yet again made a utopian declaration. Kalonzo's three-time support for Raila was inevitable because his independent candidacy would have lacked meaningful impact. His support base has never grown nationwide.
Following his explosive fallout with Raila in 2006, Kalonzo failed to expand ODM-Kenya beyond the three Ukambani counties – Machakos, Makueni, and Kitui, although he would occasionally manage a few elected politicians from areas such as Taita Taveta. This regional confinement relegated him to a secondary role, unable to transcend his limited influence to become a political figure with a more extensive grip across Kenya. This ineffectuality has left the former vice president to Kibaki politically weakened, relying solely on regional control. His private political communication has been his major undoing.
"Wetangula and I have come a long way, even if it becomes imperative that my brother Wetangula goes a separate way, it will be painful for me. This is a brother that I have known and I want to ask that he reconsiders his decision. I want to finish this struggle with a person I trust called Moses Masika Wetanugula.", Kalonzo said in 2022 after Wetang’ula left Azimio to join Ruto. That statement was significant as it showed Kalonzo’s loose ties with other politicians. It showed a utopian approach to political relationships.
The penchant of politicians, typified by Raila and Kalonzo, to prioritise personal interests over societal welfare is conspicuous. Their relentless pursuit of personal power and disdain for opposing viewpoints, evident within ODM or Wiper Democratic Movement, perpetuates a political culture where dissenting views are taboo. Opportunistic politicians from Raila and Kalonzo’s regions align themselves with local, not national, political ambitions, while Ruto's politics transcend his persona, garnering support even in the Mount Kenya region. It is a problem that Kalonzo cannot surmount because he has never mastered the art of private political communication.
Kalonzo’s potential impact in 2027 is cast into major doubt without substantial backing from the political class. When Ruto was departing Jubilee, he tagged along many politicians from the North Rift and the Mount Kenya region. Additionally, the selfishness in resource allocation within Raila and Kalonzo’s political spheres limits the ability to cultivate essential ground support.
In 2017, many opposition agents were not facilitated or remunerated for their work, and no wonder many agents in Mount Kenya and other regions did not work for Azimio in 2022. In contrast, Ruto’s unwavering loyalty and hands-on approach resonates with a significant segment of the political class, contributing to his widespread appeal.
Raila’s inconsistency is apparent, exemplified by his recent defence of the judiciary contradicting his previous harsh criticism in September 2022. “We can lead a one million match to the judiciary and say kwendeni nyumbaniI (go home), an irate Raila threatened as he attended governor Abdulswamad inauguration in Mombasa. “We have a right to say we don't agree with bad rulings of a Judiciary. It's our constitutional right to say hii ruling ilikua shenzi (this ruling is uncivilized). It was not based on law. It was judicial thuggery. We will not be cowed... we will not allow the judiciary to become a dictator in this country," Raila said.
“Shame on the judiciary of this country. “We will not be cowed. Nyayo tried, but we resisted him. We are not going to allow the Judiciary to become a dictator in this country,” Odinga said about the ruling on the 2022 presidential elections. It is interesting that Raila is not comfortable with Ruto calling for reforms in the Judiciary.
Conversely, Ruto as a politician prioritises consistency and is focusing on delivering to his support base – Mama Mboga, Boda Boda- through initiatives such as the thriving Hustler fund. Although some would have expected Ruto to abandon referencing these groups who supported him -ostensibly because he is still implementing relevant projects- he hasn’t, but is rather determined to serve them in word and deed. This is a guarantee that Ruto is likely to turn around the situation for Kenyans in not a long while from now.
“Ati watu wachache, wawili watatu wameenda kortini, wakahongana kortini mipango hiyo ikasimamishwa…barabara ikasimamishwa, Universal Health Coverage ikasimamishwa, mambo ya housing inasimamishwa…lazima tuulizane, lazima tuwe na mjadala (a few people, two or three, go to court and bribe so that important plans such as the Housing one are halted, we can only raise questions and we must engage to resolve these challenges”, Ruto said a few days ago.
Clearly, his focus is his key projects that are set to improve the welfare of the citizens, especially commoners who overwhelmingly elected him to office in 2022. There are three key aspects in the Kenya Kwanza manifesto which Ruto appear resolute to address; job creation, improved health sector and food security. The housing plan is key in the job creation domain.
While consistency in political principles fosters trust and stability, inconsistency breeds doubt and undermines the foundations of governance, leading to a fragmented political landscape. Political scientist Robert D. Putnam contends that egocentrism in politics can foster a lack of empathy, hinder collaboration, and contribute to a divisive political environment. Figures exhibiting such tendencies may be disinclined to engage in constructive dialogue, compromising the democratic principles of representation and governance, thereby eroding public trust.
The president might be censured for blaming the opposition in his New Year speech, yet it is crucial to acknowledge his frustration with those attempting to impede pillars of his Bottom-Up Economic Transformation agenda, such as the Housing plan. Ruto is keen to deal with joblessness and stabilize the country’s economic and fiscal situation because they certainly are matters he has publicly recognized need addressing.
The opposition’s efforts to undermine Ruto’s agenda reflect a strategic move to weaken his chances of reelection in 2027. Ruto, appears to be a leader who will stop at nothing but to have results that reconcile with his pledges and this is a sign that he will succeed.
The writer is a political commentator