KIBII: To join BRICS or not, Kenya's catch-22 in new geopolitical alignment

The Johannesburg II Declaration further tasked the respective foreign ministers to develop the BRICS partner country model and a list of prospective partner countries and report by the next summit, which will be held in Kazan, Russia.  

The six countries were among the more than 40 that expressed interest in joining the multilateral grouping of emerging economies. They included Algeria, Bolivia, Indonesia, Cuba, the DRC, Comoros, Gabon and Kazakhstan. 

Interestingly, however, Kenya hasn't – at least in as far the Foreign Affairs and the Presidency mandarins have communicated.  

President William Ruto did not attend the summit, despite being invited, and was instead in Nakuru county. Foreign Affairs Minister Alfred Mutua represented him. 

The theme was "BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism". 

It was curious President Ruto skipped the meeting which, according to South African Foreign ministry, was to be attended by at least 40 heads of state and government. 

Further, it was peculiar given Ruto has branded himself as the Pan-African voice, speaking the BRICS language: De-dollarisation, the reform of the international financial architecture as well as the UN reform. 

Mutua's address echoed Ruto on various platforms in his campaign against the current global financial set up.  

The President is pushing for the liberalisation of global trading, including pushing for use of local currency through the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, a component of African Continental Free Trade Area. 

Mutua regretted that increased financing gap in developing countries is as a result of unstable international financing system, and the unpredictable and insufficient development financing continues to push the South economies to the brink. 

In regard to the UN reform, the CS termed the exclusion of the South from the UNSC permanent seats as a "vivid example of inequality and discrimination in the world order". 

In the declaration, BRICS backed the "comprehensive UN reform" to make it more democratic, representative, effective and efficient and to increase the representation of developing countries to respond adequately to global challenges. 

African countries have formally backed this position through the 2005 Ezulwini Consensus and the September 2021 report “Our Common Agenda” that called for greater representation of Africa in the UNSC. 

Whereas the reform itself is not contentious, the demand for the veto – at a time some states are calling for its abolition - and the lack of a process for selecting the states to represent Africa remains controversial.

But beyond sharing these common positions, Mutua in his address did not express any intention to join BRICS. 

Various international and foreign affairs experts agree it would be beneficial for Kenya to join BRICS. 

Nasongo Muliro, a lecturer and a resident Fellow at the Global Centre for Policy and Strategy, says not joining BRICS now could soon be a lost opportunity for Kenya, especially in its quest to remain the regional economic and transport gateway to the region.  

"Kenya should earnestly lobby for BRICKS with 'K' for Kenya. The membership will help the country in terms of larger trade and market access, increased Foreign Direct Investment, additional geopolitical influence and secure its strategic relevance in the emerging new world order,”Muliro says. 

Why the hesitance then? 

BRICS is largely an informal multilateral organisation seeking to enhance economic conditions within member states and to collaborate.  

The original six BRICS members are expected to have a combined GDP of $27.6 trillion in 2023, representing 26.3 per cent of the global total.

It has, however, gained traction amidst current global politics, with the axis against the West dominance aligning with it given the cover it provides, especially with the growth of China and Indian economies.

With the new six members included, expected GDP climbs slightly to $30.8 trillion, enough for a 29.3 per cent global share, according to Visual Capitalist.  

Dr Adhere Cavince says that Kenya is caught in a geopolitical bubble because the Ruto administration is trying to balance the real strategic long-term interests, which can only be realised in concert with other developing countries, versus the desire to maintain contact with old partners, in this case the US.  

Cavince, an international relations specialist with a focus of China-Africa relations, notes the six states invited to BRICS are traditionally understood to be excluded from the western-led multilateral platforms and institutions of global economic and political governance. 

"Half of the countries that expressed interest were from Africa and Kenya is demanding justice and fairness for global trading system and representation at the UN. The rhetoric you get in Nairobi is the same you would hear in a BRICS forum," he says. 

However, Nairobi finds it hard to identify with BRICS as it seeks to maintain ties with Washington.  

"The President seems to be under pressure as he does not wish to be seen to be dropping his traditional partners in Washington and global north, but he also realises the sustainability of his aspirations can only come when the desires as expressed through the BRICS formation are realised,” he adds. 

The dollar-dominated trade and external borrowing has heavily hit African economies, with the Kenyan shilling, for example, steadily losing against the dollar and putting pressure on the economy.  

Kenya Airways CEO Allan Kilavuka, for instance, this week spoke of the Sh17 billion impact from foreign-exchange losses on loans and leases, which he said had resulted in a pre-tax loss of Sh22 billion. 

Dr Claire Amuhaya, a research scholar and assistant at the Department of Theory and History of International Relations at RUDN University in Russia, acknowledges Kenya can be crucial to BRICS but is not grabbing the opportunity and has not aligned properly. 

"Kenya has to be a friend to Russia and China to join BRICS, it's not. I doubt the current government's policy is aligned or even understands the current dynamics to know how important it can be to BRICS,” Dr Amuhaya says, pointing to Ruto's perceived "Look West Policy".  

She notes that a BRICS membership provides an alternative to the Global South in terms of assistance, different from the World Bank, the IMF and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD, which they are not part of. 

Kenya should prioritise making a mark in the regional economic groups such as the EAC and AfCTA  before venturing to the global arena.

For Stephen Ndegwa, the executive director of South-South Dialogues, Kenya may not be ready to join BRICS as yet as it first needs to grow economically to a level at par with the new members.

"Indeed, Kenya should prioritise making a mark in the regional economic groups such as the EAC and AfCTA  before venturing to the global arena. That's why it is not even mentioning any intention at the moment to avoid chewing what it can't swallow,"Ndegwa opines. 

What is Kenya Kwanza's general foreign policy? 

As a priority, Kenya Kwanza in its manifesto aimed at expanding market for Kenyan goods and services through the Regional Economic Communities of EAC, Comesa, the AfCTA and IGAD. 

Kenya, alongside Ghana, was the first to ratify and deposit instruments of ratification of the AfCFTA, and in August 2022, released its implementation strategy for 2022 -27.  

Beyond Africa, the Ruto administration said it would deepen Kenya's bonds with long-standing international and bilateral partners, including the US, the EU the UK, China and India, as well as extend friendship to anyone they would form mutually beneficial ties, suggesting preference to bilaterals. 

So far, Kenya is engaging quite fairly with each of the BRICS members states, having had bilateral meetings at least at the ministerial level, other than Brazil. 

On the other hand,  the country continues to enjoy good trading relations with the US, with Washington being the largest buyer of its goods. It is the leading AGOA exporter, with AGOA-related exports to the US of more than $603 million in 2022. 

In July 2022, the US and Kenya launched the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiations, a first-of-its-kind bilateral US trade agreement in sub-Saharan Africa. Those talks are ongoing in with the current administration. 

The EU is Kenya's first export destination and second largest trading partner, totalling €3.3 billion of trade in 2022 - an increase of 27 per cent compared to 2018, according to European Union Commission.

Nairobi is on the verge of sealing an Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU after the conclusion of negotiations this year. 

So, while BRICS might not be inimical to Kenya's aspirations in the EAC and AfCFTA, and could use ties with the bloc to get the leadership of the respective RECs, as Muliro argues, it would appear Nairobi is not ready to pick a side to play on, at least for now. 

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