I want to discuss this monumental issue as a Luo who is directly impacted by its relevance, and, because it bears real significance to the socioeconomic development of a major portion of Kenya’s population.
Yes, not only Luos support Raila overwhelmingly, and yet again, not all Luos do this. But then again, the maniacal support from the Luo majority bloc is very relevant to this discussion.
Again, very few Kenyans are more qualified to lead this discussion than I am. Why? One, I grew up fairly close to the Odinga family.
Two, I’m a published author of a global human history and so, I can easily draw on related events in remote societies away from Kenya.
In that book alone, I particularly analysed and credited Raila’s democratic contribution under one befitting chapter subtitle - Your hero, my villain!
Three, because I am data scientist, analytics (read analysis) has been my professional occupation for more than a quarter century.
Now, the maniacal relationship that has existed between Raila and a major population of the Luo community is what can be termed as an association of empathy.
As opposed to logical relationships such as those pertaining to scientific analytics, this kind of relationship is bereft of pragmatic accountability in most situations.
Having been particularly marginalised by past regimes following Oginga Odinga’s disagreement with Jomo Kenyatta, and his eventual formation of the KPU party in 1966, Luos have mostly espoused opposition politics with a zeal for democratic reforms.
This was particularly taken a notch higher after the Kisumu riots of 1969, where Kenyatta was pelted with stones. With Raila’s state repressions in countless detentions and his ultimate emergence as a presidential candidate initially in 1997, he effectively took the mantle from his late father as the defacto Luo political leader.
NEGATIVE ENERGY
Do I have example cases of political marginalisation as a strategy for targeting various individuals from the Luo community?
Plenty, including personal accounts.
In the year 1984, I had excelled in my A-level exams and I was on my way to study electrical engineering at the University of Nairobi.
Upon hearing of this feat, Jaramogi Oginga sent for me, for an official audience in Kisumu in early 1985. At the time, a plan was put in place to facilitate my continuing of the said studies in Czechoslovakia. Whereas this plan later fell through, I still remember an advice from one of my professional uncles in opposing this grand idea.
He had reiterated how following on the plan was tantamount to the government of the day opening a targeted-file in my name from then on! It suffices to note here as well, that part of the failure to the Czechoslovakia project emanated from Oginga Odinga’s very brief, and rather acrimonious trial re-entry into Kenya’s political mainstream, courtesy of President Daniel Moi.
Oginga’s crime at the time came from explaining to the country how Kenyatta was a land grabber, leading to their political differences soon after independence.
Back to the illogical association of empathy that exists between Raila and the larger Luo community, such relationships tend to naturally guarantee pitfalls from the many instances of negative energy therein.
Negative energy, in this instance, alludes to individuals who are usual carries of bad luck, but tend to be in one’s supporters’ corner simply because of one form of illogical association or another.
It is this negative energy that in most instances has led to adherent supporters of Raila’s cause adopting premature convictions of winning presidential elections even before casting real votes.
Such is the case of a close Raila family member, who ahead of the 2022 presidential election said since he had the state support that he had not had before, victory was guaranteed.
Implications of negative energy under these circumstances include the lessening of enthusiasm from the potential voting bloc, as well as the baseless overconfidence, whereby assured victory without any real efforts, is loosely predicted where none exists at all.
If negative energy has been a prime culprit in many of the faults in Raila’s presidential candidacy escapades, a cultural trait of the Luo community has been the other political faultline.
The Luo are a fairly sophisticated community, something that is generally termed around the word Pedho! With Pedho, the average Luo is likened to a propensity for most things foreign.
It is no wonder, therefore, that when built on the aforementioned illogical association of empathy, the mostly trapped community lot have been easily sold to the largely misunderstood foreign terminologies such as Canaan and Reggae, as worthy formulations of campaign gimmicks.
While still under this untamed emotional euphoria, the average Luo voter has flatly fallen prey to the middlemen-con-politicians, when that voter has largely convinced himself or herself of electing the candidates into political offices as a trust service to Baba.
PRESCRIPTIVE ANALYTICS
Indeed, Raila’s positive democratic contributions have been noted at the national level. But then again, the big question is: How much of that has really translated into economic development for the average Luo?
For a good portion of Luos naturally, real political development from decades in the opposition has mostly related to that of a child that has only grown up on his mother’s cooking. He is bound to believe that his mother is the best cook in the whole wide world!
Picking from prescriptive analytics, which happens to be one of the four — in fact the final and solution-defining scope from an envisaged analytics problem, and in view of current political events —this category of Luos may be best served by a different cook.
After all, time is of the essence. Some of us have definitely served our cause in opposition politics, and, any different tasty food from a different mother should not necessarily be a bad option.
NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
Interestingly, however, Railamania in Luo Nyanza presents a nightmare scenario for any sitting president wishing to inherit that political base. In actual fact, the scenarios presented are three.
One, this president can sway the current elected politicians to his ruling coalition, but these public officials will be easily termed as traitors to the Railamania cause.
Two, this president may opt to cosy up to the region’s political rejects, but this scenario is the riskiest as it tangentially pits him against Raila’s political fighting speciality termed Olengo (wrestling in the mud).
Three, dangling any political goodies such as infrastructure development through the local leaders would still not guarantee any success.
Why?
The average Luo will easily term these as rightfully deserved, but belated political goodies that the region has been blatantly denied by past regimes.
What then would be a workable solution?
This would have to be an astute strategy that intently targets and demystifies the illogical association of empathy (emotions) that is apportioned to Railamania.
It should be predominantly led by fairly neutral faces, possibly professionals who are scantly tainted by Railamania, with the support of the political order, while also adopting the most appropriate channels of mass delivery in everything development, and its sustainability.
PARTING SHOT
As a parting shot to this weighty discussion, I have personally challenged my fellow Luos in a new song, to reflect on our political challenges as we forge inter-community linkages for our future development.
The song is available online and is aptly entitled Ramogi un Kanye (Where are you Ramogi’s descendants)!
ICT and sports consultant, author and musician
