We are yet to see a concrete Azimio power plan for 2027, while we all know pretty well it is not plausible that they can remove the sitting Kenya Kwanza government from power between now and then.
Instead, Azimio’s approach seems focused on populism and they appear fond of illusion and fantasy.
Lately, Azimio has alleged ‘bad faith’ from President William Ruto as they appeared to renege on their commitment to the bipartisan talks set for Parliament as they asked for multiparty principles to be respected, asserting that the terms of reference for the talks were set without their input.
Simply put, political posturing continues which, many a time, happens when there is lack of a long-term strategy that then leads to reactionary tack. Azimio has made their chief demand to be the “lowering of the cost of maize flour, fuel, electricity and school fees”, a populist call aimed at masses.
On the other hand, Kenya Kwanza has been coming out strongly against the Azimio onslaught by insisting they won the 2022 election and asking that determinations via structures such as Parliament and the Judiciary be respected.
Kenya Kwanza has focused on the most important matter of working towards lowering the cost of living. For the first time in years, the price of the 2kg maize flour packet came down to Sh159, and the challenge now is to ensure the maize millers involved in the subsidization process comply so that there is a trickle-down effect to the grassroots.
Even as Azimio demands that ‘servers be opened’, President Ruto has insisted the only key engagement for the bipartisan is one concerning the reconstitution of the Independent and Electoral Boundaries Commission.
Being in power, a focused Ruto would be gullible to condone discussions touching on his legitimacy as that of having servers opened. And if that were to happen, it is beyond him or Azimio as it would need to be an order from the courts.
If Azimio’s protests approach was meant to pull Ruto into an engagement — which would make him vulnerable and put him into a conundrum — then living in the past may not be it. In politics, when a battle is settled in an aboveboard manner as the Supreme Court ruled, the people move on.
Listening to the people, thinking through strategy and planning ahead is indispensable, especially if one is to succeed in taking power. In Kenya, it is harder to ascend to the presidency than it is to stay at helm, as Kenyatta I and Moi eras demonstrated. Even with the limit of 10 years, Kenyatta II managed to complete his 10 years. Azimio faces a herculean task of dethroning Ruto in 2027 and half-baked strategies are a guarantee that they will fail.
For some reason, Azimio believes that protests are their best bet at weakening Kenya Kwanza. Raila keeps referencing “darkest days of Kenyan political history” not realising that a larger group of Kenyans blame him as well for the same, especially in Kikuyuland.
Teargas and chaos in demonstrations do not do Azimio any political good considering that Raila was supported by former President Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2022 elections, which he lost even though his brother Oburu Odinga had guaranteed supporters of a win since the ‘system’ was with Raila.
Powerful folks in the last regime such as then Interior CS Fred Matiang’i unashamedly gave Azimio support, even securing Cabinet slots in Raila’s expected administration. Kenyans are not blind to these things, as they are able to remember Azimio’s silence as the price of unga rose to 250 for the 2kg packet in the Uhuru era. Reacting to protestations then, Azimio said Ruto team should stop “barking”. Pointing at Ruto means four fingers point back at Raila because of this history.
Azimio is not fully united in vision. From the time Ruto showed determination to go for the top seat, he surrounded himself with likeminded people who believed in him. There was no question of who would be the candidate in his camp, but there was haggling between Raila and Kalonzo.
In Azimio pressers, for instance, there are indications of a push and pull between raila’s running mate Martha Karua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka. In the most recent one held at the SKM Command Center, Kalonzo read Azimio’s statement, and Karua seemed keen to ensure he did not make any further comments afterward as she quickly whispered “that’s it” and initiated the march away from the startled press.
The above was a reminder of the presser where Azimio alleged an assassination attempt on Raila where Kalonzo had to remind someone else that he was still speaking when she interrupted.
While Karua might believe she remains Azimio’s number two and rightful hire to the throne, Kalonzo feels he must be the undisputed candidate for presidency in 2027. And since the matter of their presidential candidate cannot be settled early, Azimio will remain at a minus heading to the next polls.
Anticipating Raila to vie in 2027 is not implausible. It is unclear how his core support base of Nyanza will behave — some have remarkably shown that they can align with Ruto. Raila may also seek to mainstream his daughter, Winnie, high in the party ranks where the reaction of more seasoned politicians in Luo-Nyanza may behave unpredictably.
While Ruto is and Raila has been a strong political personality capable of galvanizing support countrywide, the same cannot be said of Kalonzo, Karua, Musalia Mudavadi and others. Undoubtedly, Karua does not have the capacity mount a strong presidential campaign herself being weak even in her Mt Kenya region, where Raila performed dismally even with her as the running-mate.
Kalonzo, who is relatively stronger than Karua, would need serious support of kingpins such as Raila. Indeed many believe he cannot win without Raila, even if he is the Azimio candidate in 2027. Unless other players enter the Azimio fray, the coalition has absolutely thin options and fortunes for 2027.
It is a situation where Azimio might even break up ahead of 2027 as some people might feel slighted by the party when their political weaknesses are exposed and certain decisions made.
Former Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria of Usawa Party is also keen to scale Mt Kenya, even as Karua’s attempt in Kirinyaga came a cropper. Wa Iria is capable of better grassroots mobilisation than Karua and they are soon likely to be at loggerheads.
Azimio do not have a strong party presence in the grassroots in the Mt Kenya region as it is with others where it has not been popular. UDA opened party outlets even in the smallest towns in regions they were not popular in the run up to 2022 elections and engaged the people.
Azimio focus even now is populism at the macro level and nothing at the grassroots. The challenges of recruiting and remunerating party operatives and agents were not new in 2022 as it was the same case in 2013 and 2017. On the other hand, Ruto keeps his word and runs a well-oiled campaign being much better at planning and people management than Raila.
Most governors are quite focused on delivery of development even as they run on tight budgets with limited fund portions for development. Most of Azimio governors such as Wavinya Ndeti in Machakos, have kept off Azimio politics and warmed up to Ruto to tap from the government development muscle.
It is possible that some will clash with their party kingpins such as Kalonzo, if they do not play their cards well.
UDA honchos are also getting sidelined in the hustling by governors, with some of them keen to run for governor in 2027 and the incumbent governors come from outside UDA. An example was the recent interdenominational prayers in Machakos hosted by Wavinya. She called on Azimio to toe the opposition lane and allow Ruto to function.
UDA leaders in the region may have wished they were the ones making those audacious comments, even as Johnson Muthama kept off the meeting.
