• Raila’s well-trodden path didn’t start yesterday. He has been doing this for the last 26 years,
• Now, relying on this voter base in Nyanza, starting with Migori, he is organising riots in the name of ‘peaceful demonstrations' to cause disturbance to the nation-state.
In Gikuyu, there is a common word ‘Kwigurukia’, which is used to describe a situation whereby someone makes himself ‘mad’, restless and angry in order to achieve a certain outcome.
This is what Raila Odinga has been doing over the last 26 years since 1997.
Recently, he went to South Africa and on coming back, he conjured up a big fat lie of how he was rigged out of the 2022 presidential election.
The man came a close second and because the server lie couldn’t fly this time round, he was caught flat footed. Not even being able to convince the Supreme Court his petition had any merit.
In fact, it fell flat on the face, with the judges terming the evidence 'hot air', and with one of his lawyers resulting to singing nursery rhymes in court.
Now, relying on this voter base in Nyanza, starting with Migori, he is organising riots in the name of ‘peaceful demonstrations' to cause disturbance to the nation-state.
Raila’s well-trodden path didn’t start yesterday. He has been doing this for the last 26 years, yet this goes further down to 1994, starting with his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.
President Daniel Moi won the 1992 general election with a paltry 33 per cent of the vote as the 50 +1 formula wasn’t in place. The combined opposition had over 60 per cent of the vote, with Kenneth Matiba, Mwai Kibaki and Jaramogi being the main opposition flag bearers under Ford Asili, the Democratic Party and Ford Kenya respectively.
Matiba’s Ford Asili was the main opposition party, but this soon changed after some MPs defected to Kanu. Ford Kenya became the main opposition, but soon, an old, frail and ailing Jaramogi started cooperating with Moi such that by 1997, DP was the main opposition party.
The Moi’s Kanu and Oginga’s Ford Kenya cooperation was only hampered by the death of the latter in 1994. Raila then unsuccessfully attempted a coup in Thika against Kijana Wamalwa in Ford Kenya.
After that, he soon bolted out to form NDP. This is the party he used to vie for the presidency in 1997. He came a distant third after Moi and Mwai Kibaki, with Wamalwa and Charity Ngilu taking up the fourth and fifth positions respectfully.
Kibaki and Raila disputed the elections — Kibaki moved to court. I remember seeing both of them seated at Nyayo stadium during one of the public holidays, laughing it off as Moi made his national address.
Raila got into cooperation with Moi, after the 1997 post-election skirmishes and violence in areas such as Kisumu, and Kisauni in Mombasa. This cooperation led to Raila joining the Kanu government in 2001, after dissolving NDP and being made Minister for Roads. His ally, Adhu Awiti, become economic planning minister.
In 2002, Raila, who had been made Kanu’s secretary general, bolted out, causing the party to implode afetr Moi picked Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor. The Jogoo had swallowed the tractor, but Raila didn’t switch it off!
After the Kasarani walkout, LDP led by Raila joined NAK to form Narc, with Kibaki as presidential candidate. This coalition won by 62 per cent of the vote.
Soon after, however, Raila destabilised the government, accusing Kibaki of not honoring the MoU. They were sacked from the Cabinet and he successfully led a no campaign against a new constitution.
In 2007, Kibaki defeated Raila by 2.35 per cent margin to win his second term. The 2008-07 post-election violence erupted, with Raila calling for mass action against the alleged rigging by Kibaki's PNU.
Over 1,000 people died and more than a million people were internally displaced. A truce aptly named the National Accord was negotiated at Serena leading to the ‘Nusu Mkate’ government. Raila had once again managed to get back to government through coercion.
In 2013, he lost to Uhuru, who was Moi’s preferred successor 11 years earlier. When the Supreme Court dismissed Raila’s petition, another handshake was arranged by Rev Jesse Jackson and Jimi Wanjigi. This led to a joint photo at State House between President Uhuru, Deputy President Ruto, Raila and Kalonzo Musyoka, his running mate.
In 2017, when UhuRuto were declared winners and the Supreme Court nullified the elections, Raila got a perfect excuse to destabilize the country as he refused to participate in a repeat presidential election on October 26, 2017.
Again on March 9, 2018 and after having sworn himself as the people’s president, he shook hands with Uhuru and kicked Ruto and his allies out of government.
A scheme to mutilate the Constitution by introducing 73 amendments flopped after the Judiciary nullified the BBI process. Even with the support of Uhuru, Raila still lost to William Ruto.
It’s thus not by coincidence that on the 5th anniversary of his handshake with Uhuru, Raila declared protests that are predictably aimed at achieving a fifth handshake with the fifth president.
You can’t do the same things the same way and expect different results. Raila is predictable!