• it is in line with politics that those who participate in the process of getting a given faction to power get to profit when victory comes.
• Gachagua was not saying anything new because politics is about who is getting what, when and how, if we can borrow the words of political scientist Harold Lasswell.
Image: PCS
A Kenyan president can be beholden to communities that voted for him overwhelmingly, especially one like William Ruto, who intends to run for a second term.
His deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, recently made a comment that earned him condemnation by an almost hypocritical opposition, when he equated Kenya to a company where those who have invested should be able to reap.
However, it is in line with politics that those who participate in the process of getting a given faction to power get to profit when victory comes. Gachagua was not saying anything new because politics is about who is getting what, when and how, if we can borrow the words of political scientist Harold Lasswell.
It was strange listening to adverse reaction from the opposition because, had they taken power, they would also have proceeded to reward their funders and heavy supporters. It is obvious that they would be looking to poke holes into anything the vocal Deputy President asserts, especially now when they desperately wish to grow their fledgling movement against the current government.
It is a no-brainer that the opposition faces a formidable task in staying relevant, and to even get a morsel from a government they wish to delegitimize and which controls 85 per cent of funds from the consolidated fund which they obviously crave. It is the essence of politics, to get a share of the national cake.
Kenya’s democracy has advanced significantly since our independence over 60 years ago. Substantial political and social changes, including the shift from single to multiparty democracy in 1991, the deadly violence of 2007-08, and the 2010 Constitution have defined the journey we have taken as a country.
Unlike in 2007, the 2013 and 2017 elections were successfully resolved via the courts -the Judiciary has played a great role in upholding the rule of law and protecting human rights. However, ethnic divisions, human rights abuses, and corruption remain concerns that need addressing.
Tribal imperialism is the worst thing that happened to Kenya as it is an effective way of fanning political polarization. While multiparty politics brought benefits such as the widening of the democratic space, a conducive environment for national development, and effective application of policies, it came with a serious downside.
Political leaders in Kenya, from 1992, have built their support-bases around ethnicity. This defines the building of coalitions, the choice of presidential candidates and running mates. Most Kenyan counties were defined according to ethnic groups’ geographical occupations where tribal kingpins hinge their political feet.
Nevertheless, serious change has been growing in the political landscape. Ruto’s support in Mt Kenya region was a significant shift where the perceived kingpin was defied even as he did not have a prominent politician from the region in his ranks which explained the unpredictability of his running mate.
For the first time, the Kikuyu vested their hopes in a man from an ethnic community with whom they historically have had a topsy-turvy relationship. The people of Mt Kenya made a powerful statement that should be a basis for permanent change in the country.
ODM Raila Odinga, who carries a pro-democracy and political and economic reforms reputation, is also credited with national unity and reconciliation. To an extent, this is ironical because he seems to overlook constitutionalism as he is agitating against a government that is legitimately in place for the next five years.
Raila banks on his perceived strongholds to grow a defiance movement against Ruto’s government. In other words, he is banking on his and fellow opposition honcho Kalonzo Musyoka’s ethnic bases for a movement against the ruling regime.
Kalonzo has been the kingpin for the three counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui, where he got most of his votes in the 2007 presidential election, and where he has obtained substantial support to prop Raila since 2013.
His support remains intact but confined within these three counties. While Machakos Governor Wavinya Ndeti recently told Raila to support Kalonzo for 2027, it would be interesting to consider whether her claim that “Kalonzo has sacrificed for long for Raila’s bid for presidency” is accurate.
Kalonzo and Raila came together to try to employ their ethnic support bases to ascend to presidency, a government in which Kalonzo would have a stake just like they have shared minority positions in the current parliament.
While the former vice president may crave the support of Raila’s political bases, such a desire could be myopic because the country has morphed politically. ODM and Jubilee politicians are electing to do business with the ruling party because they sense a shift in the political landscape, where the people only desire results and conclusive support for perceived kingpins has dwindled. This defiance cannot be overlooked by any opposition politician who wants to think strategic.
Kalonzo is in the same hole as Raila, as he has been out of government for over 15 years. The upside for him is that he managed to secure the three county governments where his party Wiper won alongside parliamentary seats. His local political nemesis, Johnson Muthama, recently resigned as UDA chairman to join the Parliamentary Service Commission, a move that gives Wiper a great advantage because they can roll back any gains of the ruling party in the region where Ruto won about 23 per cent of the presidential vote.
The Kamba people may not see UDA as representative of their interests and aspirations as it is, unless they see actual developmental and benefit from the current government. Major appointments only benefit a few and the people on the ground hardly feel it. Many regions of Kenya do not have kingpins within UDA who can champion their needs, and the president should contemplate this deeply.
The implementation of development projects in regions that did not largely vote for him, can help Ruto set a new agenda for Kenya. Supporting tribal chieftains has not necessarily delivered development, and devolved corruption is proof of the opposite, the Kikuyu showed rest of Kenya that it is possible to trust someone else other than your kingpin. The Kikuyu defied the words of John Mututho in 2013 that “it is the tributary that joins the larger river and not the other way round”.
Although the Kikuyu are more politically enlightened than other tribes in Kenya, Kenya’s ethnic groups are not in a competition, and the progress of one should not mean the stagnation of another. The Kikuyu, the community that led in the fight for independence in Kenya, might have begun a great movement –that of emancipation from tribal imperialism and tribal chieftains. This is the ball they put into Ruto’s hands.
Raila’s movement is likely heading nowhere because Kenyans are apathetic to perennial haggling, but the test for Ruto will be if the country can take a quantum leap in development.
He gradually became sort of a laughing stock with his kaleidoscopic and repetitive angling for reforms that Kenyans widely began to view as unnecessary and expensive, the BBI being a situation that should have woken him up. Daniel Moi was the president who mainly promoted education, Mwai Kibaki expertly fixed the economy, and Uhuru implemented significant infrastructural development.
Ruto will be expected to fix the economy, develop infrastructure further and revive the agriculture sector, and at end of this term, nobody will care if there was a heckling Raila to distract him.
Caleb Mwamisi is a political commentator