The voter turnout in the August 9 election was approximately 64.5 per cent of the 22,120,458 registered electors translating to 14, 466,779 voters.
These figures are, however, subject to further scrutiny and are yet to be officially confirmed.
The further analysis of the above development and a point worthy of note is that approximately 8,000,000 registered electors did not vote. This translates to approximately 35 per cent of registered voters.
In terms of budget, the Independent Election and Boundaries Commission had an estimated a budget of Sh44 billion. So, if 35 per cent didn’t vote, then an estimated Sh15 billion of taxpayers’ money was wasted by those registered and did not cast their ballots. This was in terms of those recruited to manage the election, the ballots, logistics and security, among other expenses.
The IEBC undertook it constitutional role of declaring the winners of the various positions for MCAs, MPs, woman reps. governors, senators and the presidency. This was intended to reflect that the sovereign will of the people through the elections.
The law requires that the Judiciary resolves electoral disputes arising from the elections. In the case of presidential election, the Supreme Court handles the petitions.
The decision has now shifted from the electorate and the IEBC to the corridors of justice, with the Judiciary slated to determine the eventual outcome.
By the time of penning this article and for the next week and a half, the nation’s attention shall be riveted on the presidential election petition that has to be resolved within set constitutional timelines. A ruling has to be made on September 5.
From the onset, there are three likely ruling scenarios.
One, the court can declare the presidential election results declared were valid hence uphold the election and the President-elect is sworn in.
Two, the court can rule that the presidential election result as invalid either order a recount or runoff within 30 days.
Third the court can order the nullification of the entire presidential election and order fresh election within 60 days; the 2017 precedent is fresh in the electorate’s minds.
The nine petitioners before the Supreme Court shall be seeking various prayers in their favour.
Based on the above outcomes herein is a summary of the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the prayers that have been presented by the petitioners.
First, the petitioners must present evidence that there were technical processes that the IEBC overlooked in the conduct of the election, which affected the outcome.
Second, prove to court that a section of voters may have disenfranchised materially thereby affecting the results.
Third, point out errors of omission and commission on the part of the IEBC and whether, if attended to, they would have affected the outcome.
Fourth, prove that results emanating from the polling stations and constituency were in tandem with those received at the national tallying centre. For example, the Supreme Court could order a recount due the “opaqueness” surrounding tallying of form 34C.
Fifth, provide irrefutable evidence that have impermeable, technological, legal and constitutional grounds that would warrant the overturning of the election outcome.
Sixth, interrogate and prosecute whether the numbers presented by the chairperson in the final tally were based on actual forms tallied.
Seven, point out the illegalities and irregularities observed throughout the election.
Eight, determine whether a minority or absence of a unanimous decision commissioners is subject to court challenge given that the poll agency is body corporate.
In the final analysis the petitioners shall have to convince the court they have presented evidence to prove whether the entire electoral process met the threshold of reflecting the sovereign will of the people was reflected in the results declared.
The ball is now in the hands of the Judiciary and the legal fraternity to chart the way forward for the nation.
Dr Njau Gitu is an educator practising as a governance and leadership adviser
@GNjauGitu
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