Much of the campaigning has been distasteful so far, notably between DP Ruto and his boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta, and it's likely to get worse with a month to go to Election Day, August 9.
It's the home stretch. Both sides, Ruto's Kenya Kwanza and Raila's Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya, are pulling out all the stops, tapping all avenues, combing every corner of Kenya for votes to clinch State House.
Fifty percent of the vote, plus one are needed for victory.
It's Raila's fifth try and Ruto's first.
A number of factors are at play in determining the victor, Kenyatta's successor.
Two other candidates are in the race, George Wajackoyah of the Roots party — campaigning for legalisation and commercialisation of marijuana — and Agano’s David Waihiga, emphasising the anti-graft war.
Although they are minor candidates, Wajackoyah could drain some votes from Ruto.
There are basic non-policy, personality questions: Do you like Raila, Ruto and their running mates, Martha Karua and Rigathi Gachagua, respectively?
Raila has the support of the President and the machinery of the state is working for him. This time round, the former firebrand Raila appears to have the so-called 'deep state' on his side.
Other factors in the equation are agendas — what will they do to lower the cost of living, fix the economy and create jobs fast?.
Ethnic kingpins and choice of running mates are also factors.
Ruto has told the President he does not need his support or support from the state to win.
Their relations took a nosedive after Uhuru and Raila shook hands on March 9, 2018, but it was a marriage of convenience anyway.
Ruto takes credit for having done the 'donkey work' to deliver Jubilee's victories. He has given up on the "Yangu kumi, na kumi yako" agreement made in 2013, which Uhuru has denied.
Raila is supported by Cabinet secretaries who previously never shied away from disparaging him.
They include Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, who now is the 'super minister' supervising implementation of projects — Ruto's old job. He's also in charge of security.
Also, there's Joe Mucheru, the ICT Cabinet secretary. Technology and how it works will be crucial in this election.
Ruto has said, "I am the Deputy President. Do you think there is any 'deep state' I don't know about? Do I look like someone whose votes can be stolen? They should look for someone else."
Analyst Javas Bigambo confirms there is a desired outcome by the state operatives that Raila must win.
For Ruto to surmount this, Bigambo said, he must call out the President for directing the state to support his rival. Emphasise Raila as a state project.
"He must also call out Odinga for being the recipient of state sponsorship," Bigambo said.
Ruto must hammer home the message to everyone the state should remain balanced and not put its finger on the scales.
"Uhuru is the chairperson of the Azimio team, which means strategic issues and intelligence matters are shared and discussed, all with the aim of making Raila win," the analyst said.
He cited Cabinet secretaries Matiang'i, Mucheru and Wamalwa of Interior, ICT and Defence, respectively, which are critical before, during and after the election.
The perceived presence of powerful forces in government brings back memories of the 2007 poll that later became a bloodbath. So remind voters.
"This election is psychologically tipped, the trend of the media tilting toward Odinga is alarming," Bigambo said.
He also advised Ruto not to fall for a 'lamentation' strategy of complaints about unfair treatment. Emphasise ideas and vision for Kenya.
The ethnic kingpins who have aligned themselves to the rivals are also a factor. The extent to which they emphasise communities and 'the other' is important.
The bigwigs who influence voting in their backyards are backing their favourites, though some have left the bandwagon to campaign for themselves.
While Ruto has Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Moses Wetang'ula (Ford Kenya) and Senate Speaker Kenneth Lusaka leading the Western bloc, Raila has Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and Cotu boss Francis Atwoli, among others.
For a long time, Western with 2.2 million votes has been Odinga's support base and losing the two to Kenya Kwanza is likely to affect his math.
Can Oparanya and Atwoli keep the region's votes together for Raila and prevent a big split?
In 2017, Mudavadi and other leaders from the region rallied behind Raila under Nasa to ensure he won maximum votes from the region.
A possible split this year would give Ruto substantial votes.
Political expert Mark Bichachi said, however, Mudavadi and Wetang'ula have not impacted anything at all.
“There is no presence of Kenya Kwanza in Western, only UDA. In the camp, everything is centered on Ruto, unlike in Azimio where everyone has been brought on board, so Mudavadi has no impact,” he said.
At the Coast, Odinga has maintained his grip for years with Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho as point man. His Kilifi counterpart, Amason Kingi, ditched ODM for Ruto.
Ruto's charm offensive in Eastern has also borne fruits following the entry of Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua who ditched Azimio in favour of Kenya Kwanza.
Ruto appears to have Central Kenya on his side, despite the President being the de facto leader, and a clique of stalwarts including MPs Sabina Chege and Kanini Kega.
On his side, Raila has Agriculture CS Peter Munya and Meru Governor Kiraitu Murungi.
The DP has, among others, National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi, Senator Kindiki Kithure and MPs who include Moses Kuria leading his campaigns.
Their presence may or may not add value, Bichachi said.
Odinga's choice of running mate Martha Karua, a former Justice minister, was mainly to win the hearts of those who never voted before. And, of course, there's the women's vote.
Karua's entry has bolstered Raila's chances of reaping votes in Central and countrywide.
"This woman is a fighter and not a quitter. She has a safe pair of hands, the woman we offer as deputy president is also known to have credible credentials for the fight for our second liberation," Raila said of Karua.
The Gema community is the largest voting bloc, with about five million votes that no candidate can ignore.
Since Independence, the region has never divided its votes, and the August election will test this.
Ruto chose Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua against all advice from his inner circle and advisers. The DP said, however, he wanted absolute loyalty.
Will Gachagua win sgnificant votes in Mt Kenya?
"He is an astute debater, a successful elected politician who is a principled, resilient and fearless fighter for the right cause," Ruto said when he named him running mate.
Gachagua is facing a corruption court case and has denied wrongdoing.
With Ruto and Raila having settled on running mates from Mt Kenya, residents can be assured their interests are safeguarded.
Their manifestos have also been crafted to capture popular aspirations, though achieving some pledges will be tall order.
Raila has said he will carry on with President Kenyatta's projects and legacy, adding his own platform planks of compassion.
Ruto emphasises the common man and woman, the hustler, the bottom up model.
Both are faced with the challenge of creating jobs, especially for youth.
Kenya's youth, however, have not registered to vote in the needed huge numbers.
The Azimio administration would introduce a permanent Kazi Mtaani programme, a no-interest revolving youth fund and expand technical training institutes.
Kenya Kwanza says it will allocate Sh250 billion to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to improve productivity of 10 million informal operators with potential to generate Sh6 trillion yearly.
Bichachi said Ruto's blueprint copies Uhuru's Big Four agenda, while Raila's is practical.
There are other views and observers want to know how they will raise money for big new projects and activities as well as fund existing projects.
The country's debt is a major problem the next administration must grapple with if there is to be money for development.
Analyst Kipkemoi Barsumei said key figures running the campaigns will influence voting, however, he said the election will not be about individuals but about democracy.
“Regional leaders leaning towards particular camps is not going to be helpful," he said. "Kenyans want someone to address the high cost of living that has cost immense suffering.
“It is all about democracy. That is why you are seeing leaders in Central going against Uhuru, those in Rift Valley rebelling against Ruto and some in Nyanza vowing not to support Raila," Barsumei said.
Manifestos, he said, must be based on issues affecting Kenyans and they will impact the trust Kenyans have in candidates.
“Ruto has cleverly knitted his manifesto and when they say they are going to deliver it in 100 days, it is possible,” he says.
Barsumei said Kenyans will also look at the character of the persons who will oversee implementation of campaign promises.
On health, Raila has announced he will introduce BabaCare to ensure access to quality healthcare by all Kenyans.
Under the programme, medical insurance is going to be provided to all retired public servants.
Ruto said his administration will set aside Sh200 billion for fully publicly financed primary healthcare that gives patients choice among public, faith-based and private providers based on a regulated tariff.
An Azimio government would roll out a Pesa kwa Jamii (universal basic income), a social protection programme that will give Sh6,000 to two million needy households a monthly.
Ruto said his administration will employ 116,000 new teachers to address the teaching shortage within two financial years and double the amount of money allocated to the school feeding programme.
These are among the issues to be debated by Kenyans in the run up to the ballot.
(Edited by V. Graham)
“WATCH: The latest videos from the Star”
“WATCH: The latest videos from the Star”
