ODM chief and Azimio flag bearer Raila Odinga is increasingly finding himself between a rock and a hard place over his running mate options.
This as his main rival, Deputy President William Ruto, assembled a giant election machine, comprising at least 12 political parties to face Raila in the August 9General Election.
While Ruto is yet to name his running mate, the fact that he faces only one option — picking his deputy from Mt Kenya — makes his task half-way solved.
Raila, who is seeking the presidency for the fifth time, is in a much deeper crisis amid immense pressure from Mt Kenya and Ukambani regions.
Although Raila’s think tanks believe he has wide options to settle for, analysts warn that the ODM boss is walking a political tightrope over the issue.
Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila’s running mate in 2013 and 2017 general elections, has signalled he doesn’t mind whichever position he plays in Azimio, but there is growing pressure on him to deputise Raila.
Kalonzo, the Ukambani political supremo, risks being downgraded in the country’s political pecking order, if Raila looks elsewhere for his running mate, a possibility Wiper henchman do not want to imagine.
On the other hand, there are concerns that Raila risks losing significant ground in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Mt Kenya backyard, if he fails to pick his deputy from the country’s single largest vote bloc.
President Kenyatta’s allies have been categorical that the region expects nothing short of a second in command position in Raila’s Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition party.
Given that the politicians advancing the proposition include high-ranking faces in Uhuru’s inner circle, it leaves no doubt that Raila faces a delicate balancing act to ensure his choice consolidates his turfs.
“This is Raila’s biggest headache for now. He must balance his act well to avoided losing any support, especially in regions that are crucial in the presidential race,” Kandunyi MP Wafula Wamunyinyi said.
The DAP-K leader, an affiliate in Raila’s Azimio coalition party tipped to lock Ruto out of Western Kenya, opined that the running mate is Raila’s major hurdled ahead of the August presidential election.
“Both Mt Kenya and Ukambani region feel entitled to the position, this puts Raila between a rock and a hard place,” Wamunyinyi added.
Analysts have reckoned that this year’s General Election will be won or lost on the choice of running mate.
There is a feeling among President Kenyatta’s confidants that the running mate post should be the irreducible minimum they can agree to in order to back Raila’s presidential candidature.
For the first time in decades, Mt Kenya bloc will not be fielding a presidential candidate, making the region a decisive battleground between Raila and Ruto.
Nakuru governor Lee Kinyanjui recently said the region will go for nothing short of the running mate.
“As a region we have agreed and have maintained that we must be given the Azimio running mate position,” he told a Jubilee party activation meeting in Central Kenya.
The same statements were echoed by Murang’a Woman Representative Sabina Chege who said Mt Kenya region deserves the running mate post within Raila’s matrix.
“The region will vote for Raila Odinga but we are asking for the running mate position,' she said.
The pressure for Raila to pick his running mate from Mt Kenya is informed by its over 6 million vote muscle.
But can Raila sidestep this key bloc and settle for his deputy from Ukambani and hand Kalonzo the post?
Political analyst Murimi Mutwoka , a university don, opines that the running mate slot is a delicate territory that Raila must navigate cautiously.
“Any options he has on the table have far reaching ramifications on his presidential candidature,' he said.
According to Mutwoka, the biggest dilemma Raila faces would be how to ensure he consolidates Ukambani and Mt Kenya even by picking a deputy from either region.
“How those regions will respond to his ultimate choice will make or break his presidential dream,' he said.
There are reports that Mt Kenya Foundation, the exclusive club of billionaire from the President’s turf is bidding for former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth.
Kenneth, successful business man and one time MP, has been pushing for his place within the Azimio matrix, accompanying Raila on his presidential campaign trail across the country.
He has also been very aggressive and forceful as the battle for Raila’s Number Two takes shape.
However, there is a group of strategists around the President said to be in favour of governor Kinyanjui to deputise Raila.
Then there is an emerging faction mainly made up of MPs who what Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua to deputise the ODM leader.
“There is no doubt that camps have emerged, making Raila’s options even harder,” said an MP from Central Kenya aware of the behind-the-scenes intrigues.
Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya is also being touted as a way of locking Mt Kenya where Ruto has been making significant inroads.
However, some of the president’s men insist that Uhuru will have the latitude decide who will be Raila’s running mate.
Mt Kenya Youth Caucus chairman Linford Mutembei aid the president has the final say and will guide the region on its stakes in the Azimio matrix.
“President Kenyatta is the kingpin of Mt Kenya and he will show direction on deputy president at the right time, if it would be in his wisdom that the region gets the post, then that will happen, we will be guided by his wisdom,' he said.
As the wave of a running mate rattles Mt Kenya Kalonzo’s men are playing even harder.
It is apparent that some of Kalonzo’s allies have declared the running mate post as non-negotiable.
They claim that the matter on Kalonzo being Raila’s running mate negotiated and agreed on between Uhuru, Raila and the Wiper leader long before Wiper joined Azimio.
‘This was a matter that was settled on long ago, it is an issue that we deliberated on and agreed upon between the President, Raila and Kalonzo,' said Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo.
The reasoning in Kalonzo’s camp is that by the Wiper boss withdrawing his presidential bid to back Raila, he can only settle for the second in command in Azimio.
“Kalonzo is the Ukambani kingpin, with him as Raila’s deputy, the region is locked in Azimio,” said Kathiani MP Robert Mbui.
The National Assembly deputy majority leader said those trying to rock Azimio by undermining Kalonzo are doing Raila a lot of political injustice.
Even as Kalonzo’s men push for his bidding, the Wiper boss has been facing a litmus test with his grip of Ukambani in doubt.
The three Ukambani governors, Alfred Mutua(Machakos), Charity Ngilu(Kitui) and Makueni’s Kivutha Kibwana have signaled that Raila could work without Kalonzo.
Critically, the governors have been accusing Kalonzo of trying to block their place in the Azimio La Umoja Coalition political party.
Complicating Raila’s game plan for running mate, Governor Mutua this week expressed interest in being Raila’s running mate.
The Maendeleo Chap Chap leader made his interest public after a meeting with his party's National Governing Council, taking the battle to Kalonzo’s doorstep.
"With the urging of my party members, I present myself for consideration for the position of deputy president to Jakom Raila Odinga," Mutua said.
The leaders claimed that the three-legged concept in Azimio-a political formula of having all the 26 parties work through either Jubilee, ODM or One Kenya Alliance, was being pushed by Kalonzo’s camp to diminish the influence of the trio governors’ parties.
It is stand off that had threatened the registration of Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Political Party until last minutes concessions were made to strike a middle ground.
KANU secretary of political affairs Fredrick Okang’o revealed that the partners had agreed to a four-legged stool to accommodate the reservations initially raised.
“It was agreed that we have a four-legged stool but with constant consultations,' he said.
The coalition was published on Wednesday and is set for gazettement any time, paving the was for the climaxing of what been daunting task for Raila’s who had been forced to burn the midnight oil.
Tellingly, Kivutha warned Kalonzo that he should be accommodating of other party leaders supporting Raila, taking a swipe at the Wiper boss.
"Kalonzo should embrace inclusivity, not a three-legged philosophy... Winning elections is about numbers. Let all political parties that genuinely support Raila be welcome in the coalition and campaign for Azimio," he said.
There are reports that the constant squabbling could end and Raila’s campaigns synchronized to accommodate all affiliate parties to ensure inclusion even as Raila schemes to settle on his running mate.
It is expected that when Raila’s name will be formally submitted to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission on April 28 as the coalition party presidential flag bearer, the name of his running mate would be included.
