MUGWANG’A: To win in 2027, Kalonzo must avoid Ruto's Sword of Damocles

Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka is headed for his waterloo in his quest for Deputy President paring with Raila Odinga.

My unsolicited advise for Kalonzo and his handlers is to soberly reconsider this quest, if he has any ambitions to ever rise to the presidency.

The cold truth is deputising Raila is simply not the route to the top in 2027, and he can take this to the bank.

Contemporary Kenya history, and the country's real politik, ethnically and class contoured social and economic realities should inform Kalonzo’s choice of strategy to the presidency.

And he is not short of illustrations, experiences and anecdotes to learn from.

To start with, the last and the only person who rose to the top after deputising a long reigning boss was late President Daniel Moi, who succeeded founding President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta when he died in office in 1978.

But Moi’s circumstances were different in that his boss exited without notice and in his sleep on August 22, 1978.

A nation in shock and unprepared for sudden loss of a domineering figure who reigned for 15 years by sheer force of character and hypnotizing personality legend of a founding father than democratic rule, was quick to embrace Moi’s ascension quickly and easily.

Moi succession was not that easy, and his deputy of 10 years, retired President Mwai Kibaki had to take a detour in opposition benches in Parliament for 10 years before he could make to the top.

Kalonzo was among the four princes of Moi succession- with Musalia Mudavadi, George Saitoti and Katana Ngala —  who the second president by-passed to anoint Uhuru Kenyatta as his favorite.

Despite so blazen and undisguised favouritism Moi showered on Uhuru as “personally anointed” successor in 2002, the voters would consign the son of Jomo to the opposition benches before he figured out how to stitch unlikely ethnic coalitions with William Ruto that propelled them to power in 2013.

Kalonzo himself as Kibaki’s vice president was in the middle of Kibaki succession trenches with Uhuru and Saitoti (now deceased), under the Party of National Unity  in the run up to 2013 general election.

The wiper leader knows deep in his deepest recesses he had not a chance to beating the presidential campaign machine Saitoti had assembled, even as Kibaki’s vice president.

A freak air accident took out Saitoti in 2012, and again, Kalonzo was tossed in the air again to do a deal with Uhuru and Ruto under the defunct G-7 umbrella formation against Raila Odinga’s ODM machine.

The falling out with Uhuru and Ruto led to him teaming up with Raila under the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord)  and Nasa coalitions in 2013 and 2017 as the running mate.

Today, Uhuru and Ruto seem to have split Nasa in half between them, with Uhuru retaining Raila and Kalonzo and Ruto running off with Mudavadi and Ford Kenya leader and Bungoma Senator Wetang'ula.

However, Raila has emerged the undisputed choice as the Azimio La Umoja Coalition’s presidential flag bearer and President Kenyatta's preferred successor, with Kalonzo seeming to be engaged in the fight of life for the number two slot.

Which brings the argument to the need for strategic positioning for Kalonzo, and his advisers — if they ever hope to be official residents of Plot No 1 Calendonia Estate on which the State House stands.

Strategic positioning means the DP’s position is not what Kalonzo needs to prosper his political fortunes post-2027 ( premised on the pledge of Raila serving for one term).

The best strategic positioning is to play the long game in preparation for 2027.This should include, but not limited to, negotiating for a chunk of the Executive power sharing in the current circumstances, but which grants him latitude to play his 2027 politics without being perceived to undermine his boss the way a DP’s position would.

This would invite counter-measures and responses of the variety Deputy PresidentWilliam Ruto is languishing under today.

While Ruto seems to weather the storm by his thick skin, relative youthful energy backed by loyalist Jubilee Party league of youthful MPs with little to lose politically, the diplomat in Kalonzo can hardly afford such brutal street political brawling from the DP’s perch.

The political dynamic informing Ruto’s political appeal, the same dynamic on which Raila himself rides for the longest time in national politics is the perception of being a rank outsiders, even when both have been in and out of the revolving door in the corridors of power.

The outsider perception “fighting the system” for a better life seems to make quite an impression to the voter in the Kenya context.

This is the dynamic Kibaki and Uhuru gained and cultivated when they chilled in the opposition benches, even when both were died in the wool pro-establishment conservatives.

Kalonzo should seriously review whether the DP’s position serves his presidential ambitions, or becomes a quest to his waterloo, and cremation of his political career.

My advice would be the leopard of Seikuru teams up with Raila, takes a rather inconspicuous but powerful position in the next government and emerges as an overseer of its running towards the tail-end with the ruthless of a wounded lion of 2027.

This way, Kenyan voters will not directly associate him with the failures of the outgoing government- which are bound to be many- and might just give him the opportunity to correct them as president!