In the past one month, wrangles have unsettled both Deputy President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance and ODM boss Raila Odinga’s Azimio over choice of running mates.
Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala and Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua clashed after Gachagua said the running mate position is a preserve of Mt Kenya.
“As far as I am concerned, the running mate will come from the mountain at the appropriate time,” Rigathi said late last month.
Malala, on the other hand, argued that his party leader, ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi, a co-principal in the alliance, is the most experienced politician to deputise Ruto.
Last week, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka said he would only surrender the running mate position, if he gets a third of Raila’s government — that is if he wins the August 9 general election.
Kalonzo’s close ally, Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo Jr, said his boss must be Raila’s running mate or they will withdraw their support.
The demands stemmed from reports the ODM boss, who enjoys the backing of President Uhuru Kenyatta, was hunting for a deputy from the Mt Kenya region.
The public exchanges lifted the lid on the thorny issue and the headache the two leading presidential aspirants face in their search for running mates.
On the face of it, they appear spoilt for choices based on the number of politicians they have rallied to their camps. However, several factors are at play.
Political analysts say the duo is considering charisma, political experience, ability to mobilise and add votes to their basket, and regional as well as ethnic balance.
However, the focus is on whether the duo can overlook the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, and pick their running mates from other regions.
Last week, Jubilee vice chairman David Murathe indicated the region was not necessarily keen on the Number 2 slot, provided they get ‘our fair share of the government'.
“If that is what it will take to bring Kalonzo onboard, so be it,” Murathe said.
Political observers say the region has a critical mass of voters who are likely to tilt the outcome of the presidential poll, thus, ignore it at your peril.
“Yes, either of them can ignore Mt Kenya in the search for a running mate, in the event they want to commit political suicide,” analyst Javas Bigambo said.
Even so, the two cannot pick just anyone for the position, he added.
“It all depends on the quality of the person picked. Ruto needs an accomplished mobiliser for a running mate,” he said.
He said Raila, on one hand, needs an acceptable person to the Kikuyu establishment, but also someone who can mobilise and stir crowds.
In addition, he needs a candidate with rock star qualities.
Ruto, on the other hand, needs someone who knows the trenches, and has a golden touch with the locals.
Nairobi-based political risk analyst Dismus Mokua said Mt Kenya is a key success factor for both Raila and Ruto. Therefore, overlooking it must be carefully thought out.
“Both can get running mates from outside Mt Kenya if, and only if, they have direct connection with (region’s) voters and offer them sweet alternatives,” he said.
He said Ruto stands a better chance to get a running mate from outside without any political consequences because he has created a hustler movement, a fanatic following, in the region.
The DP has made massive inroads in the mountain, despite spirited efforts by President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee brigade to dismantle his political networks.
A number of elected leaders have decamped to Ruto's UDA party, dealing a blow to the President who has been the region’s kingpin since 2013.
“Raila will need to convince Mt Kenya that Jubilee will secure their interests,” he said.
However, Raila and Ruto may have a wicked problem, if a strong national leader emerges from Mt Kenya,” he added.
Central region boasts of the highest number of registered voters in the country.
Latest figures released by the IEBC at the end of the second phase of enhanced mass voter registration show the area had 5.9 million voters as of February 2022.
All the 10 counties – Nakuru (geographically in the Rift Valley) , Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Laikipia (geographically in the Rift Valley), Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi – that make up the region account for nearly a third of the country’s total votes.
The IEBC data show it has about 22.5 million voters. However, this is subject to audit by KPMG – an audit firm awarded the contract to clean the register ahead of the elections.
In the last two general elections, President Kenyatta controlled the vote bloc.
He succeeded President Mwai Kibaki, who had been the region’s kingpin since 2002.
In 1997, Kibaki was also on the presidential ballot.
However, for the first time in many years, the vote-rich region today does not have a clear frontrunner for the presidency, reducing the area to a battlefield.
All the big guns, including some who had initially indicated they would vie for the top seat, have aligned themselves with either with Ruto or Raila.
Only Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria, National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi and businessman Jimi Wanjigi are still in the race. However, they lack meaningful political capital.
Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua on Wednesday backed Raila's bid, widening the ODM leader's options for a running mate from the region.
Former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui, Agriculture CS Peter Munya and now Karua are among the senior politicians whose names have been cited as Raila's possible running mates. Sources indicate Raila prefers Kinyanjui as his deputy.
However, Kalonzo and his troops have been pushing to land the position so as to cement the Ukambani vote bloc.
In both the 2013 and 2017 general elections, Kalonzo was Raila’s running mate and lost to Uhuru-Ruto on both occasions.
The DP, on the other hand, enjoys the backing of youthful, eloquent and influential politicians in the area
Among possible running mates are Rigathi, Kandara MP Alice Wahome and Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru.
Kieni MP Kanini Kega, a key ally of the President and Raila's Azimio pointman from the region, said their support for the former Prime Minister is unconditional.
“We are supporting our presidential candidate without a condition. He has endeared himself to the people of the mountain without necessarily saying his running mate must come from there,” Kega said.
The Jubilee's director of elections said even though the ruling party is a principal outfit in Azimio alongside ODM and thus entitled to produce a running mate, there is no guarantee that person would come from Mt Kenya.
“Jubilee is a national party. So a running mate can come from anywhere. We have also gotten new friends and parents who have come to join us,” he said.
Malala, on the other hand, said the matter of picking a running mate was now in the hands of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance principals, though the ANC wing is pushing for Mudavadi to get the position.
"In terms of experience and seniority, Mudavadi is unbeaten and we will really be glad if he gets the position. But it is now up to the principals to decide," he said.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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