Every election year, I send silent sympathies to anyone whose poll plans and strategies depend on negotiating with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
I can’t decide which one is worse between getting lost in the deep blue sea, without food and drinking water, and waiting for the former Vice President to join you in an alliance. It is as if the Kalonzo political doctrine is premised on wearing down partners and opponents into raising their hands in surrender and supporting him.
Former Mwingi South MP David Musila, in his book, Seasons of Hope, details the intrigues around the 2002 election season, especially around the time the Rainbow rebellion hit Kanu, and the Raila Odinga-led party rogues decided to leave.
Musila paints a picture of an undecided Kalonzo, who appeared to negotiate with all sides and seemingly believed there was a way to change President Daniel Moi’s mind to anoint him instead.
A particular incident is highlighted where, as the Rainbow guys held a presser on the lawns of a Nairobi hotel, Kalonzo was locked up in a holding room within the same premises, forcing Musila to keep dashing between the room and the press conferencing seeking guarantees from and for his friend.
By the time the dust had settled, Kalonzo had become one of the very last to leave Kanu, even though he likes to state that he was a founder member of every party he has been in since then.
Five years later, now in ODM-K and firmly seeking to be the sole presidential candidate in the 2007, without necessarily stating why the others were not deserving of it, Kalonzo and his sidekick Daniel Maanzo fled with the party’s instruments, leaving the Raila faction without a party.
The Raila wing had to thank providence for speculators who routinely register variants of famous political parties, for they managed to find another ODM to take them to the elections.
In the heat of the campaigns, when it was clear the country was heading into a two-horse race and Kalonzo could have swung the vote one way by joining either, he swore he neither had a deal with Kibaki nor Raila.
Subsequent events have told a different story. But it is the unexpected agreements between the ODM boss and the Wiper leader in 2013 and 2017 that now provide the fodder for even more stiff-necked political posturing in the 2022 campaigns.
First, it is fair to say that Kalonzo was forced into the 2013 deal after running out of options. As Vice President in the coalition government, he had taken it as a given that the Kibaki people would tap him for the presidency in 2013, especially after briefly helping the President stabilize his half-government by joining it in the delicate moments of the post-election violence of 2008.
Kibaki’s people overlooked him and left him with a vengeful heart, for which he had to swallow any pride he had and join Raila as running mate. They lost, or they were robbed of victory, depending on which side of the truth you stand.
The pair made a comeback in the 2017 election hoping for better tidings. They were joined by Amani leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya boss Moses Wetang’ula in their new NASA coalition. They were such a force that Kalonzo not only agreed to be the prospective DP in a one-term Raila government, but secretly carved out a separate deal for himself away from the other principals.
Quite incredibly, this top secret two-man deal didn’t just demand that Raila serves one term, but also hand over substantial powers in government to Kalonzo in the third year of his term!
Effectively, Kalonzo was asking to run half of Raila’s term then two of his own! I don’t know where this political Golgotha is, where Kalonzo had gone and sacrificed everything for the nation, to earn this shocking level of self-entitlement.
It reminds me of DP William Ruto’s attempt to dominate President Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime as a co-president in their first term, while working to secure his own two clear terms!
At any rate, Raila did not win or serve that term, so the deal should have collapsed. The two guarantors of the secret deal, professors Makau Mutua and Kivutha Kibwana, have said as much. But the Wiper chief has placed it on the table, demanding that Raila now steps down for him as the Azimio candidate.
Trouble is, more than a dozen parties within the Azimio movement have already endorsed Raila as their candidate, and it remains to be seen how the four in Kalonzo’s OKA brigade can change that.
But there is something that should worry President Kenyatta and the presumptive Azimio nominee, Raila: The secret deals with Kibaki in 2007 and Raila in 2017 means Kalonzo is not averse to wearing down Azimio, while having another secret agreement with DP Ruto.
In politics, you know them by their colours, and they hardly ever change. It may not appear to Uhuru as such, but there is not much goodwill to guarantee that a deal between Raila and Kalonzo will happen, or even that it will be done in good faith.
First, after the messy Nasa divorce, it appears disrespectful to Raila that Kalonzo arrived right on the day that the former was meant to be unveiled as Azimio candidate, to not only postpone the extravaganza, but to also declare quite tellingly that he would be negotiating specifically through Uhuru.
There was never a more blatant way to say, “I don’t trust him, but I’m only doing this because you are in charge”.
I shudder to imagine what level of trust is expected in a shared government from that kind of approach. Perhaps the time has come for those who build alliances to move away from the concept of tribal kings who are sought after merely to secure vote blocs.
I submit that rather than Raila and Uhuru stalling their coalition project to await Kalonzo’s ego, they would reap much more by tapping Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu as Raila’s running mate.
I am sure the Kamba vote they so much seek to lock Ruto out of would respond positively to a Ngilu running mate. She is not only a seasoned campaigner who has run for president and made quite a mark but is truly loyal to Raila and the president, making it easier to trust her with the next five years of the regime.
And in a country where the women vote is becoming more and more loud, what better way than to give us a lady on the ticket?
With a two-horse race looming, letting Kalonzo go, especially if Ngilu is the running mate, minimizes the political damage, but also saves us from the perennial “negotiation dragon” that pops up every election year chasing personal guarantees and glory.
It’s time for brave decisions!
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