OMWENGA: Will Ruto be as good as Raila in opposition?

That question assumes Deputy President William Ruto is not already the leader of the opposition, but he is.

It is a question that looks past August 9, when Ruto formerly takes that role because all indications are that he will not be sworn as the next president.

That is not just an assertion made by those opposed to Ruto succeeding President Uhuru Kenyatta but is one informed by presently developing circumstances and forces that combined will sweep Uhuru’s successor to office or, conversely, too strong a force for Ruto to overcome to be sworn as our next president.

Leaving aside the most recent developments at the ICC, where lawyer Paul Gicheru is being tried for allegedly bribing and intimidating witnesses in the since dismissed Hague case against Ruto, there is plenty on other fronts that all spell doom for the man who so desperately wants to succeed his boss.

The main battlefront in which Ruto is losing ground fast is the place where he has camped since the day he sniffed his boss was not interested in having him succeed him. In case you lost track, that would be more than two years ago and long before the now famous handshake of March 9, 2018.

Ruto is a smart man, and no doubt had people in the intelligence who would have tipped him off long ago of the President’s intentions. In fact, had there been no disputed elections in 2017 and had Raila quietly gone into retirement, you can take it to the bank there are powerful people in the system who would have still made it impossible for Ruto to succeed Uhuru.

In that scenario, there will not be a serious Ruto presidency to talk about because you can also take it to the bank either a son or daughter of Mumbi would have been already propped up and poised to succeed Uhuru tupende tusipende, or some compromise would have been reached to prop up someone not as hated in Central.

In other words, Ruto would have not even bothered to try and make any inroads in the Mt Kenya region because that would have been an exercise in futility.

Ruto made gains in the region because of the shocking developments following the handshake.

He knew with Raila having previously been demonised in the region, Ruto could capitalise on that and build his presidential run on it, and he did.

To his credit, it was a clever strategy except it failed to recognise or altogether dismissed Uhuru’s ability to influence who succeeds him.

The end outcome is why I am putting all these efforts in the past tense.

In politics, just like everywhere else in life, the law of diminishing marginal returns has a way of creeping in and prematurely bringing to end something good one thought they had going.

I said not too long ago that Ruto was fast approaching that point where the successes he enjoyed in Mt Kenya region will soon be a thing of the past.

We know the purging of Ruto’s allies from political Jubilee leadership and in the National Assembly was easily accomplished.

There is no doubt the same has been underway to root out his men and women in the system—though that may have proven easier said than done.

We also have the soon to be held Jubilee and ODM National Delegates Convention gathering in which Uhuru is to remove any lingering doubts as to who will succeed him. Note I would have said his “preferred successor,” but I have not and deliberately so. Then there is the impeding removal of Ruto from Jubilee as deputy party leader.

Add that a few things those with a bigger hammer have up their sleeves, one cannot but conclude Ruto can only hope to use the wealth and experience he has had thus far to be an effective opposition leader come August 2022 and only hope he can be half as good as Raila has been all these decades.

Samuel Omwenga is a legal analyst and political commentator

“WATCH: The latest videos from the Star”