One day in February 2017, along the corridors of Parliament, I had a brief conversation with former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar who was bitter that Senator Johnson Muthama had endorsed Hassan Joho for governor.
The endorsement had been done during the burial of former Kwale senator, the amiable Boy Juma Boy. At that time, Omar was Wiper secretary general where Muthama belonged.
In a rant that lasted over 30 minutes, Omar recalled that Juma was supposed to have been the Minority Whip in Senate in the place of Muthama, because the position was supposed to go to the Coast, but Raila had given it to Muthama.
Omar was unhappy also that despite popular belief that Muthama had been the magnanimous funder of the Wiper party, he did not actually give very much. “Hizi laki mbili anatoa ndio anaenda kila mahali akijigamba kuwa anafadhili chama? he posed to me. Omar must have been concerned about the significant Kamba vote in Mombasa, which would have made him a serious challenger to Joho.
In 2017, a bitter fallout ensued between Wiper leader Kalonzo and Muthama. Private political communication is hard to tell, but it was rumoured that Muthama had attempted to broker a deal between Kalonzo and Jubilee, having successfully cut the one with President Mwai Kibaki after the 2007 elections, marred by the worst violence witnessed in Kenya that claimed over 1,000 lives.
Speculations that Muthama would wrestle the party from Kalonzo never materialised and Muthama would fail to contest the Senate seat for Machakos - a weird unprofitable decision which surprised many. He would have found no opposition for this even if he had run as an independent.
To resolve the matter, Raila is said to have promised Muthama the Interior Cabinet position, if he won the elections of 2017, and instead asked him to lead the campaigns for governor of Nairobi, to deny Sonko the Kamba vote. However, Muthama would continue to be involved in Ukambani politics but with little impact, and while their differences may have minimized the impact of the party, Wiper and Kalonzo still remain the most popular party in the region.
A few days ago, Kalonzo ruthlessly tore into Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu telling the people to tell her to shut her mouth, that she was never sent by the community to negotiate for them. Further, he said he does not need brokers, before further asserting that, “Raila cannot become president without Kalonzo”. This was despite Ngilu having recently held a presser where she called for Ruto to respect Kalonzo and having been on a radio programme praising Kalonzo.
Kalonzo is strong-willed politician, a man who earnestly believes in his abilities. When Raila visited Makueni a few months ago and tagged along the three governors of Makueni, Kalonzo did not rush to respond.
The Nguu Masimba ward contest had seen the influence of many external political forces, yet after the loss, Kalonzo did not throw tantrums despite the obvious disappointment. He has never publicly rued the myriad of efforts, some even from unpredictable quarters, to interfere in Ukambani, divide the vote, or even to lose him the peoples’ loyalty.
Kalonzo, having suffered the cunningness of Raila in 2006, and playing a supporting role for him twice, is a patient man. Regardless of political banter that many might consider having a negative effect and expect a reaction to be made, people may be surprised to hear that he would be unmoved and going on with life as usual.
When it comes to the matter of Ukambani, Kalonzo carries the mantle, and this time he is resolute that nobody will auction him or the community to any coalition. He sits at the high table, so that even Uhuru will not visit Ukambani without him, and Raila had to pass his greetings when he visited the region a few months ago. Even as Ngilu and others may attempt to get a slice of the discourse, they might only get as much.
Kenya’s politics is such that not one tribe can ascend to presidency without the support of another. It is like a SACCO where, to borrow money, one needs the endorsement of another who must have shares, in this case voter numbers. This time round, Kalonzo will append the signature for the Akamba without any brokers.
Elsewhere Ruto may want to hoodwink Kenyans that there is chance for ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi to be the presidential candidate for the Kenya Kwanza alliance. It can only be himself because, having been deputy president for two terms, the law deters him from becoming a running mate.
Further, the Kalenjin will not settle for anything less than deputy president or else he loses his bedroom. Besides, the former Western province has mostly gravitated towards Raila Odinga gains, which the Azimio leader will only move to solidify.
Mudavadi settling for a super minister will be defeatist as it beats reason why he left Oka or did not join Azimio. The Mudavadi math is a lose-lose one, the Luhya will not move with Mudavadi, and he faces political oblivion. As for Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula, the DAP-K will very likely do him serious damage. The best math for both would have been to bring the Luhya together under one coalition, even if that would have been Oka.
