The new partnership of UDA, ANC and Ford Kenya will test whether ODM leader Raila Odinga still enjoys a huge following in Western Kenya.
Before the union, Deputy President William Ruto had been popularising UDA in the region. He also told residents he was keen to join forces with ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula.
With the union now sealed, the battle lines have been drawn and Raila will be hell-bent to retain his grip on a region likely to be decisive in the presidential contest.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo said the battle between Raila and Mudavadi in Western will marred not only by political rivalry, but also revenge as the two try to prove their supremacy.
“As Raila will want to prove his political might and make a statement that he is the de facto kingpin of Luhya community, Mudavadi will want to prove his new political marriage can appeal to the Western bloc and reclaim his political pivot as the Western supremo,” Orogo said.
He added that the differences between the two former close friends and political allies seem to be widening by the day.
“The Raila-Mudavadi political rivalry is going to be fierce, even going by Kenyan campaigns. Reading from Musalia's statement at Bomas of Kenya, the differences could degenerate into to personal feuds,” he added.
In the 2017 general election, Raila received overwhelming support, arguably due to the support of Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, who were his co-principals in the now-defunct National Super Alliance or Nasa. The two are now with Ruto.
The region—Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia and Bungoma—had 1.9 million registered voters.
In Vihiga, Raila got 134,312 votes while President Uhuru Kenyatta, with Ruto as his running mate, garnered only 18,275. Out of the 743,929 registered voters in Kakamega, 484,157 voted for Raila, while 63,399 chose Uhuru.
Busia had 351,087 registered voters. Of those, 239,296 voted for Raila, while 34,239 elected Uhuru. Bungoma with 559,866 registered voters stood with Raila who got 284,786 votes, as Uhuru followed with 126,475 votes.
Raila has the support of the Democratic Action Party-Kenya (DAP-K), which backs his candidature under the Azimio La Umoja Movement.
Since teaming up with Ruto, Mudavadi has seen his legislators joining DAP-K and ODM.
Lugari MP Ayub Savula, who was ANC deputy party leader, ditched Mudavadi to join DAP-K in the same position. Others who left with him are Matungu MP Peter Nabulindo and Oku Kaunya (Teso North)
Khwisero MP Christopher Aseka has been leaning towards ODM. Former national Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende has also joined DAP-K.
Wetang’ula lost Kanduyi MP Wafula Wamunyiyi and his Tongaren counterpart Eseli Simiyu, who are now DAP-K party leader and secretary general, respectively.
Political commentator Fred Sasia said the falling out between Raila and Mudavadi comes with “a lot of political complexity, especially in Western region.”
“Western Kenya has traditionally voted heavily for the former Prime Minister, even in times when his relationship with Mudavadi was bitter, as in the case of the 2013 elections. I anticipate no change in that in the coming elections,” Sasia said.
He said, however, it will take a lot of mobilisation to woo the electorate
Speaking to the Star, Savula said DAP-K will pitch tent in Western region to secure votes for Raila.
He said those who will vie on the ANC ticket will face an uphill task because Azimio la Umoja had become “a beneficiary of Mudavadi’s poor leadership.
“If you can remember, some of the ANC MPs won the elections in 2017 simply because the party was in Nasa. We were telling people to elect their area leaders on the ANC ticket and choose Raila Odinga for president.
"It is the same strategy we are going to use in Western in the forthcoming elections. We are going to tell people to elect their leaders on the DAP-K ticket and choose Raila for president,” he said.
Wamunyiyi said DAP-K is considering giving direct tickets to elected leaders who are seeking re-election.
“In areas where we do not have elected leaders wanting to vie on DAP-K, we will have nominations,” he stated.
Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito said ODM still enjoys support in the region but will nonetheless want to deny Mudavadi as many votes as possible.
“We have the support we need but we will make sure we take the little that Mudavadi may be having,” he added.
The ongoing enhanced voter registration is expected to raise the stakes in the battle for western.
The total number of registered voters in the region increased by nearly 193,043 in November 2021 after the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission concluded its first phase of voter registration.
Kakamega registered 57,816, Bungoma 51,204, Busia 30,109, Trans Nzoia 33,347 and Vihiga got 20,567 new voters.
Cotu secretary general Francis Atwoli announced they will hold rallies in all counties soon to ensure that all votes go to Raila and candidates vie on the Azimio La Umoja Movement ticket.
But Ruto started his campaigns in the area almost three years ago and is expected to have more rallies in the area, having bagged Mudavadi and Wetang’ula.
Already, he has made his presence felt in Busia after he received the backing of former Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba, who is Foreign Affairs CAS.
During the 2013 elections, Ruto’s United Republic Party (now defunct) won two parliamentary seats in the county.
(Edited by V.Graham)
