The big debate in the last weeks has been the Political Parties (Amendment) Bill, 2021.
The Bill seeks to reintroduce coalition political parties, where constituent parties retain identity when they form a coalition party.
The emergence of political coalitions has become a worldwide phenomenon.
Although the coalition’s nature, composition, life expectancy, etc vary from country to country — depending on particular political circumstances — the basic reasons for the rising popularity of coalitions remain more or less the same.
The first and the most obvious cause are related to the political aspect. Contrary to general belief, coalitions are basically a result rather than a cause of political unrest.
It is the dissatisfaction with the single majority rule and its failure to respond to the changing public needs that force the electorate to resort to other alternatives.
Very often, the members of the ruling majority party not content with its working break away to form smaller factions.
These factions then frame their own policies and developmental programmes, not radically different from those of the parent party having a somewhat different approach towards issues.
This creates instability and crisis within the political spheres and confusion among the voters.
The result is that no party is able to muster the majority of votes. In such circumstances, a coalition becomes a compulsion rather than a mere alternative.
The second and the more significant reason for the emergence of coalitions can be traced to fundamental changes in the structure of society.
A society in a transitional phase provides conditions most conducive for a coalition.
Politics does not operate in a vacuum: It reflects the social, cultural, economic, and historical forces at struggle. No society today is static. This is especially true of Kenya today.
The society in Kenya is undergoing fragmentation not just in terms of the obvious economic factors but also in terms of class, lifestyle, profession etc.
Depending on these socio-cultural and economic divisions, the needs and interests of the masses vary.
In such a situation, it is impossible for a single political party to cater to the variegated and heterogeneous needs of the people.
Additionally, national parties tend to neglect regional interests and this has resulted in the mushrooming of a multitude of regional parties, with each representing the interests of a particular region.
Quite naturally — in accordance with the individual tendency to pursue personal objectives — each region prefers to choose its own representative rather than a party that promotes national interests.
The idea of the makers of the Constitution was not to deny that people are the first members of ethnic or regional groups they are proud of and that diversity is a source of strength rather than a weakness.
Therefore, to avoid the political dominance of a particular ethnic group, to the exclusion of others, coalition formation is absolutely necessary by engaging all the regions through their representatives.
A task that the presidential aspirants Raila Odinga [ODM], Deputy President William Ruto [UDA], Senator Gideon Moi [Kanu], Kalonzo Musyoka [Wiper] and Musalia Mudavadi [ANC] must contend with.
REASONS FOR COALITION FORMATION
The first reason is that no single political party in Kenya today is able to secure a working majority in the bicameral House on account of the presence of a multiparty system.
Under these circumstances, a number of like-minded parties form a coalition to provide a workable Majority to pass government business.
Secondly, in a multiparty system, a deadlock may be created due to an even balance between two or more political parties.
This may lead to one of the two parties allying itself with a minority group such as neutrals or defectors to tilt the majority in its favour.
Thirdly, a coalition may be necessitated by a national crisis, when various political groups may suspend their political strife and collaborate in the general cause of protecting and promoting their national interests.
CHALLENGES
The alliance of regional and national parties helps in serving the diverse interests of people from every region.
Governance by consensus forms the framework of a coalition government.
It is an example of power-sharing, where larger interests and long-term goals are kept in mind.
The usual reason for such an arrangement is that no single party has achieved or is capable of achieving an absolute majority after an election.
Multi-party systems have led to coalition governments and with increasing political polarisation, coalitions are getting harder to form because of the mistrust among the potential coalition partners due to lack of clear provisions in coalition agreements and unwillingness from some coalition partners to respect coalition agreements.
Coalition payoffs, as the end goal of political negotiations, are also becoming extremely difficult to arrive at.
Whether policy or office, parties aim for benefits in exchange for supporting a government or being partners in government.
The results are not always intuitive with the highly coveted roles in government distributed to members from the larger parties in the coalition.
Therefore, a coalition government will always remain in pulls and pressures, especially in a multiparty system like ours.
The importance of coalition formation in a multiparty system like ours resides in its impact on a political system’s capacity to resolve or diffuse competing for social, political, and economic demands and formulate coherent, effective policies.
The creation of governing coalition is a decisive part of the larger problem of securing stable, competent, and democratic government. One can safely say the interparty bargaining that precedes coalition formation is often of far greater significance than the election that precedes the bargaining.
LAWS OF COALITION FORMATION
The Political Parties Act, 2011 provides in Section 10 that two or more political parties may form a coalition before or after an election and shall deposit the agreement with the Registrar.
The Act stipulates that a coalition agreement entered into before an election shall be deposited with the Registrar at least three months before that poll and that a coalition agreement entered into after an election shall be deposited with the Registrar within 21 days of the signing of the coalition agreement.
At the centre of controversy in the Political Parties (Amendments) Bill, 2021 is the proposed amendments to the principal Act that inserts a new definition of Coalition Political Party inter alia.
Clause 8 of the Bill proposes to amend Section 10 of the Act to provide for the formation of a coalition political party agreement to the Registrar, which shall be submitted at least six months before the general elections.
While members of Parliament allied to President Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila, Gideon, Mudavadi and Kalonzo are in support of these amendments.
Those allied to Ruto are strongly opposed to the Bill arguing it favours the formation and consolidation of Azimio La Umoja Movement and One Kenya Alliance, which are likely to be at the centre of competitive politics where regional negotiations are key in the formation of the next government.
Coalitions are therefore at the heart of all politics, and this is nowhere truer than in development where they play a significant part in overcoming the pervasive collective action problems that define most challenges of development.
But what brings coalitions into being?
What factors shape more rather than less successful ones and, particularly from a developmental point of view, what facilitates the emergence and success of ‘developmental coalitions’ that promote sustainable growth, political stability, and inclusive social development, rather than predatory or collusive coalitions?
Those are the questions that the coalition builders for the 2022 election will be answering in the next three months.
The writer is the Political Affairs secretary, Kanu
