No clear front runner among 10 Homa Bay governor aspirants

No aspirant can claim to have a clear lead among the 10 politicians who want to become Homa Bay governor.

Campaigns are gaining momentum as aspirants use a variety of methods to woo voters, who mostly support Raila Odinga's ODM.

Governor Cyprian Awiti is serving his second and last term.

ODM is expected to hold primaries before the end of April and whoever wins the party ticket is considered to have one foot in the office.

Due to the dominance of ODM, all the aspirants are fighting to clinch that ticket.

Aspirants include deputy Governor Hamilton Orata, former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, ODM national chairman John Mbadi, Woman Representative Gladys Wanga and former Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga.

The race has also attracted county secretary Isaiah Ogwe, finance executive Nicholas K’Oriko, Kuppet secretary-general Akelo Misori, businessmen Jared Kiasa and Louis Ogingo.

Since the party leadership announced methods to pick its candidates, the aspirants have intensified their activities with Wanga, Mbadi and Magwanga taking campaigns to the villages.

ODM  announced consensus, universal suffrage and direct nomination as the methods for selecting candidates.

ODM leader Raila Odinga has been quoted saying they will prioritise consensus.

Direct tickets will only be given to a popular aspirant should consensus and universal suffrage fail.  

Wanga has been endorsed by elders from Kochia in the Rangwe constituency and those from the Karachuonyo constituency.

The elders say they endorse Wanga because they trust she can deliver on her promises and transform Homa Bay.

“It’s high time Homa Bay people avoided retrogressive ideas that may deter them from electing a good governor. We’re endorsing Wanga because she is capable of being governor,"  Mzee Odul Kabaraka said.

He said the time had come for people to shun fallacies and chauvinistic ideas perpetrated by some men that women cannot lead in high elective positions.

Apart from Wanga, Kiasa and Mbadi have been endorsed by elders.

Ogwe was endorsed by Nyada Ralek elders from Homa Bay Town constituency. Elders from Kanyikela endorsed Kiasa while Mbadi was endorsed by elders from Kanyamwa Kosewe in Ndhiwa constituency.

The politicians consider such endorsements as a way of consolidating their support bases, a blessing and demonstration that elders have confidence in them.

Elders are not expected to endorse another aspirant seeking the same position as Wanga.

“I thank the elders for their support and trust they have in my candidature. I promise never to let you down,” Wanga said during her endorsement at Karabondi in Karachuonyo.

Homa Bay-based political analyst Dan Opande, however, said that no aspirant can claim to have a clear lead in the race because of the dynamics at play.

They include party loyalty, the power of incumbency and money.

Opande said the seat has attracted bigwigs of different capacities.

He said Kidero has a big name since he has been a governor. He is also monied, hence, cannot easily be a pushover.

Mbadi and Wanga are not only ODM diehards but also loyal to Raila.

Their closeness and loyalty to the party leadership have been rewarded.

Mbadi is National Assembly Minority leader and ODM national chairman. Wanga is the chairperson for the National Assembly Committee on Finance and the Homa Bay ODM party chairperson.

Last month, Mbadi started conciliatory meetings with clan elders from his Suba South constituency to consolidate votes.

Opande also brings Orata, Ogwe and K’Oriko as aspirants who are all close to Awiti. The trio has the power of incumbency.

The difficulty has made Governor Awiti avoid making an endorsement.

“I can state that ODM will have a hard task in deciding whom to give the ticket for governor. That’s why until now no aspirant can say they are ahead,” Opande said.

The analyst added Magwanga, who has returned to ODM, cannot be wished away.

Magwanga posed strong competition to Awiti in the 2017 elections as an independent candidate. They started at the ODM primaries before he went independent.

The former Kasipul MP is basing his campaigns on his track record.

He was ranked among the best MPs in utilisation NG-CDF funds.

Opande says Magwanga believes his support is still intact.

“Magwanga is also advantaged should residents vote on the basis of their clan. Rachuonyo where Magwanga hails from is a vote-rich region," he said

Many Homa Bay residents have called on the ODM National Elections Board to conduct credible nominations to avoid voter apathy in the general election.

Opande said as supporters of the party, they will want overwhelming voter turnout.

Homa Bay is rated first among the counties where ODM draws much of its support. Raila gets more than 95 per cent of the vote in past elections

Aspirants have been urged to concentrate on seeking votes from residents and warned against expecting an endorsement from Raila.

Opande said Raila understands the political matrices and dynamics that are likely to occur in Homa Bay should credible nominations fail to be undertaken.

ODM supporters want credible nominations to allow Raila to campaign and seek votes in other regions and not concentrate in areas perceived to be his strongholds, such as Homa Bay.

Opande wants ODM to use methods that will ensure only popular aspirants are handed party tickets.

Since 2013, Homa Bay people have been electing ODM candidates as MPs, senators, woman representatives and governors.

“Homa Bay appears to be different from the other counties and Raila understands this well. ODM must just handle the nomination very well to avoid possible backlash,” Opande said.

(Edited by V. Graham)