There are two realities of the upcoming 2022 elections in Kenya.
The first is that no single ethnic community can unilaterally decide the presidential election. In a country such as Kenya with over 47 disparate ethnic communities, political bargaining is the new game in town.
The second reality is that going forward, ethnic coalitions are the new normal for Kenyan politics.
While the presidency is the indivisible whole Raila Odinga and William Ruto covet, the reality for the One Kenya Alliance is that the players can only function as kingmakers. They have no realistic chance of being king.
With this in mind, ODM leader Raila and DP William Ruto are desperate to get key players in Oka on their side to avoid a potentially bruising and expensive runoff in 2022.
One reason each Oka principal is unwilling to support Raila or Ruto yet is they are each waiting for the opportune time to extract maximum concessions from the two frontrunners before the elections.
Political pacts will be the name of the game in the post-Uhuru Kenyatta dispensation.
At 76, and with multiple failed attempts at becoming President, this is the last real chance for Raila. His advanced age and sizeable political constituency are an attractive option for any Oka member looking to run again in 2027.
Ruto offers Oka the opposite dilemma. What Raila lacks in time due to age, Ruto has in youth and the prospect of longevity in the Kenyan political space.
A successful Oka principal partnership with Ruto could see years of fruitful political gains for the former.
The second reason is that not all Oka principals are equal. Some are more equal than others and will command steeper concessions from Raila or Ruto in exchange for their political support.
Clearly, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka carry significantly more political weight than Ford-K’s Moses Wetang’ula and Gideon Moi of Kanu.
Mudavadi and Musyoka will be unwilling to carry the load of political deadweights with them into a potential coalition with either of the two front-runners.
In addition to this, the nature of political negotiations for the formation of pacts is tough and long ended. Political deadweights complicate negotiations.
Mudavadi and Kalonzo are playing a waiting game, an act of brinkmanship to keep their potential suitors guessing on what their ultimate intentions are.
This is the second reason they are not willing to play ball with Raila or Ruto for the 2022 elections at this time.
The third reason is Oka members are calculating the dynamics of the politics that develop in the Mt Kenya region. They have to be sure that no major ethnopolitical notable emerges from Central Kenya as this will severely complicate their political matrixes.
It is not a matter of if, but for whom the principals of Oka will break. Will Mudavadi and Kalonzo go separate ways and support Raila and Ruto separately?
Or will they opt to stick together by figuring out a tag team ticket to force a runoff and then double down on extracting concessions from two frontrunner political players desperate to get their support?
Oka’s collective fortunes increase in direct proportion to their capacity to remain together. However, Kalonzo and Mudavadi are rational political players who can decide to work separately and pursue enlightened self-interest in negotiating with Raila or Ruto. Time will tell which principal in Oka blinks first and joins the ticket of Raila or Ruto.
For now, Oka is unwilling to support Raila or Ruto.
Prof Monda teaches political science, international relations, and American government at the City University of New York (York College)
[email protected] @dmonda1
